ST. LOUIS — They say the first (and most important) step in recovery is admitting you have a problem.
John Mozeliak finally got there in the baseball sense Monday afternoon, when he stood in the Busch Stadium clubhouse lobby and sounded a pitching siren so many heard so much earlier.
“It’s a fair question,” Mozeliak said as his nearly 30-minute hoisting of the white flag on the 2023 season neared its end. “I would add more starting pitching. I would add more bullpen.”
In comments that cemented foreshadowing found both in the standings and in recent roster decisions — the coming Tyler O’Neill trade showcase soon will be the newest example — the Cardinals are true trade-deadline sellers for the first time under Mozeliak’s leadership.
Making sure the 2024 season will be one in which the Cardinals return to a postseason-bound path has become this team’s top priority now, even if it means accepting the end of what has been a 15-season streak of winning baseball. The upcoming Aug. 1 trade deadline will reflect that realization. Prepare accordingly.
“We know this current group isn’t working as a core,” Mozeliak said. “So we’re going to try to shake it up and get back to winning.”
Pitching, pitching, pitching — Mozeliak’s own words used Monday — will be the pursuit of the trade deadline, and of the upcoming offseason as well, as all of the Cardinals’ glaring needs in that department will not be satisfied by the deadline alone. The Cardinals likely will have three rotation spots vacated by the end of this season, because of Adam Wainwright’s retirement and the decent chance the team flips the expiring contracts of Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery in its pursuit of pitching help that can’t walk away into free agency after this lost season ends.
The Cardinals aren’t looking for short-term rentals or far-away prospects. They need significant help for 2024 and 2025. This trade deadline won’t provide all the answers. Hopefully, it can be a solid start.
“It would be impossible,” Mozeliak said, when asked if the Cardinals could fill out a 2024 rotation without free-agent addition or additions this offseason, regardless of what happens at the deadline. “Unless we make incredible trades that somehow address that, but I don’t see that, even when I squint.”
And the people said ... what the heck took so long for the Cardinals to catch up to reality?
Pointing to the Cardinals’ pitching flaws was a common chorus this offseason. I did it. You did it. Your neighbor’s third cousin twice removed did, too. We don’t get a special price. We just used common sense.
At best, the Cardinals constructed another pitching-thin roster that would need to be bolstered by outside help at the trade deadline. Instead, the Cardinals finally got burned by the worst-case scenario.
The bottom dropped out on their rotation and later their bullpen. One of the National League’s best offenses is being squandered as a result. Second-year manager Oliver Marmol has been left to catch the shrapnel.
Robust seasons from reigning National League MVP Paul Goldschmidt and All-Star Nolan Arenado are going to waste. It’s so bad, not even a bad division can make the case for the once-favored Cardinals to pretend there’s some magical run coming, and remember, this is a team that has been taught by history to never count out a magical run.
But Mozeliak is absolutely right to officially turn the focus toward 2024 and beyond, and he’s right to accept the Cardinals were wrong — dead wrong — about their confidence in this pitching staff. Those who raised concerns about it were not negative naysayers spreading an evil agenda. They were just correct.
It’s beyond time for Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. to come to grips on the modern cost of elite pitching and his team’s desperate need for it. It’s beyond time for Mozeliak and his front office to prove they still can prioritize, pursue and land the right arms to fix this crisis. It’s beyond time for the Cardinals to get back to developing arms that can thrive in the modern game, not some sepia-toned view of it.
“I think, from a payroll standpoint, we should have some room for growth there, in resources that are becoming available,” Mozeliak said. “Part of that is with people coming off (the payroll.) The other part of that is how we think about, how we evaluate pitchers. It’s something we are taking a hard look at upstairs. More swing and misses versus groundball, type of thought, will definitely be baked into future thinking.”
DeWitt is in charge of how much gets spent. He continues to trust Mozeliak to call the baseball operations shots. Mozeliak has defended the coaches and the development of pitchers, suggesting the problem is the lack of arm talent on the major-league roster. Time to upgrade the talent then, and fast, before another season derails.
Mozeliak on Monday tiptoed up to the edge of excuse making, then thought better of it.
He said he thought Rule 5 draft selections would help bolster the bullpen more than they did. He said he thought Dakota Hudson would contribute to the rotation more than he has. He said he thought the Cardinals’ heavy participation in the World Baseball Classic and the fallout from it cost the team chances to come together during spring training.
He wondered about how a groundball-heavy staff has been dented by the restrictions on defensive shifts. He suggested, interestingly, that a question about where catcher Willson Contreras, who has not been the smoothest of fits, factors into the catching plans for the 2024 season is a topic better addressed in the offseason.
But, ultimately, the biggest problem was the one the Cardinals are now, finally, admitting.
Mozeliak owned that Monday.
“When you look at our everyday club, it’s an exciting team to still have in place,” he said. “Can we augment enough pitching this offseason to change the outcome of what we saw this year? That will be our goal.”
That offseason starts now, really. As this page flips toward the future, the Cardinals can’t go back in time and figure out where this season might be had they shown more urgency earlier. They can be motivated by knowing next season very well could wind up in the exact same ditch if Monday’s newfound pitching clarity doesn’t stick.
