JUPITER, Fla. — There is this pesky mini refrigerator in Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol’s office that has presented a problem throughout spring training.
Marmol will be in the middle of his pre- or post-game remarks, and the machine will kick on, making an awful racket.
At times, he has unplugged it. On Saturday, he let it run. The grinding of the machine synced up nicely with the topic, an offense the manager says is ready to make noise.
“I could care less if we get the (preseason) attention for it,” Marmol said. “Other than, when the lights come on, I can’t wait to see it and go toe-to-toe with whoever wants to consider themselves the top in the league in having a strong lineup.”
While continued concerns about the Cardinals’ rotation are more than fair, especially now that Adam Wainwright is starting the season on the injured list, this offense does seem to be getting overlooked and underrated compared to some of the more-discussed National League powers.
Yes, Albert Pujols retired.
But No. 5 hitter and catcher Willson Contreras arrived to join National League MVP and No. 3 hitter Paul Goldschmidt, and NL MVP finalist and cleanup hitter Nolan Arenado. That’s a pretty good 3-4-5 lineup anchor.
Multiple young hitters who showed promise last season are back, with the confidence experience provides and the benefits an offseason plan of attack can add.
And don’t forget, Cardinals top prospect Jordan Walker has entered the mix.
Predicted performance statistics think Lars Nootbaar is about to take over the world, and that’s only slight hyperbole. Nolan Gorman has worked hard to close the hole in his swing at the top of the strike zone. Brendan Donovan has shown an uptick in power without abandoning his on-base profile. Dylan Carlson’s power has returned now that his wrist is healthy. I’ve lost track of how many times Marmol has gone to bat for Tyler O’Neill.
“We’re going to eliminate the potential part of it and just perform,” Marmol said about O’Neill on Friday. “I’m convinced this dude is going to perform. He’s in a different spot mentally than I’ve ever seen him.”
Last season, the Cardinals finished the regular season ranked in baseball’s top 10 in key categories of offense.
They finished fifth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.745), seventh in slugging percentage (.420), fourth in on-base percentage (.325), 10th in average (.252), ninth in home runs (197), and sixth in doubles (290), all while ranking in the bottom-five (26th) in strikeouts (1,226).
Things got even better after the All-Star break.
During the second half, the Cardinals ranked second in OPS (.777), second in slugging percentage (.444), third in on-base percentage (.333), 10th in average (.254), first in home runs (98), second in doubles (32) and 29th in strikeouts (493).
Yes, those numbers were boosted by now-retired Pujols, who turned into Super Man after an All-Star break rejuvenation, averaging .323 and slugging .715 down the stretch.
For what it’s worth, though, Contreras hit 22 homers for the Cubs last season while Pujols was hitting 24 for the Cardinals. And it wasn’t just Pujols who was figuring things out for the Cardinals during that second half. Before the All-Star break, the Cardinals averaged 32.3 at-bats per homer, which ranked 15th in the majors. They averaged 23.5 at-bats per homer after it, leading all of baseball. They averaged 4.6 runs per game over 96 games before the break, then averaged a hair over five runs per game during the final 68 games after it.
Good trends.
“You are adding a year of experience to some of the guys,” Marmol said. “That’s meaningful. That matters. Because those guys have made adjustments.”
Guys have adjusted to Marmol’s often-shifting lineup, too.
Outside of Goldschmidt-Arenado-Contreras, matchup maximization will be routine. Being in the lineup one day and out the next, or high in it one game and down ballot another, is no longer viewed as a bad thing. It’s a plan, and players have proof it can produce what is best for the collective whole.
“We are going to combat that pitcher for the day, not just throw the same lineup out there every day,” Marmol said.
Marmol being optimistic is no surprise. A manager saying he’s not excited about his lineup before a season would be the real news. Even ex-Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker probably thinks his Marlins will hit in 2023. But here’s one thing Marmol is pitching that I absolutely will buy.
For the first time in a long time, this offense has a clear and concise approach instead of some nebulous word salad that unfortunately seemed to become synonymous with ex-hitting coach Jeff Albert’s era. Albert (Jeff, not Pujols) did some very good things for the Cardinals as they caught up with the rest of the league in evolving how they interpret and analyze hitting, but there were times when too much thinking seemed to be going on in the fractions of a second a hitter has in the box. Especially in the postseason, where the Cardinals developed a bad habit of falling victim to opponents’ game plans and going colder than an ice cube in Anchorage.
“There have been edits to it,” Marmol said when asked about the difference between this season and last. “And they have been positive. The hitters’ meetings I’ve been a part of this year have been better than anything I’ve experienced, just from an overall concept, and the delivery has been really good, with engagement from the players.”
Here’s what the 2023 Cardinals are out to do, straight from the manager, with help from newly promoted hitting coach Turner Ward, who gets down to the point in a hurry.
“When we simplify it, we want to swing at strikes and hit it very hard,” Marmol said. “If we do that, I think all of those other numbers take care of themselves. Whatever you want to look at, whatever you want to anchor to, at the end of the day, if you control the strike zone, and don’t leave it, and hit it really hard, you’re going to be a good offense.”
“Damage doesn’t just mean homers,” he clarified. “Standing on second after a swing, that’s a good thing. We have guys who don’t need to try to hit homers. But they do need to have the intent of impacting the baseball. Because when they do that, they chase less. It’s hard to hit the ball hard when it’s not a strike. Keep it super simple. Impact the ball when it’s a strike. That combination is as simple as you can make it.”
That’ll work, and this team has a dynamic group that will work it, one that lost a legend in Pujols but added a thumper in Contreras and some not-to-be-overlooked improving players.
“I’m not sure where pitchers are going to go for breathing room in our lineup,” Marmol said.
Like the malfunctioning fridge in the manager’s office, this lineup could get loud fast.
