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St. Louis Post-Dispatch
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Sport
Ben Frederickson

Ben Frederickson: Analyzing spring stats equals risky business, but Goldschmidt’s hot start bodes well for Cardinals

JUPITER, Fla. — Camp Cardinal returns to work Wednesday after the team’s final spring training off day.

After the reintroduction of Albert Pujols, vibes are good with six Grapefruit League games to go.

Opening day at Busch Stadium is now just a week and a day away.

You ready back there, St. Louis?

The new manager is.

And he’s not even a little disappointed his ovation will likely be overpowered by his newest player’s.

“It will be ... loud,” Oliver Marmol said.

Here are some things that would keep Cardinal spirits high as Marmol’s team rounds third and heads for home.

You know, besides no more injuries. (Knock on wood.)

— Keep cruising, Paul Goldschmidt. The first baseman tends to be a relatively slow starter at the plate as seasons launch. But he is digging the new bat Post-Dispatch teammate Derrick Goold reported on earlier in camp. Goldschmidt is 6 for 15 with a double, two home runs and three RBIs. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something. Just saying, a hot start for Goldschmidt would be a big plus for this under-pressure lineup. Goldschmidt is drilling baseballs down here. Nine of the 10 baseballs he has hit in Grapefruit League games played in stadiums that are producing public StatCast data have registered at 95 mph or higher, which falls into the “hard contact” category.

Check out Goldschmidt’s career on-base plus slugging percentage by month:

March/April: .859

May: .902

June: .967

July: .949

August: .923

September/October: .867

Remember last season, when Goldschmidt averaged .214 with a .257 on-base percentage and a .340 slugging percentage in 100-plus at-bats between April and March.

Now remember Goldschmidt finished the season with a batting line of .294/.365/.514, and that includes the slow start.

What could his 2022 season numbers look like if he has a great first month?

— New Cardinals starter Steven Matz got knocked around his last time out. Marmol observed Matz left too many pitches up in the strike zone. Matz felt he could fine-tune things before his next start. Crisper pitches would be good to see from Matz this week, and if that happens, Matz’s bad start can be flushed.

One thing that can’t happen to this staff, whether it’s Matz or anyone else, is letting one bad day turn into trending away from pitching to contact and trusting this elite defense. The Cardinals saw what happened last season when pitchers tended to nibble their way into walks. Home runs and walks water down good defense. This defense can steal hits. It can’t defend walks and homers. Groundball pitchers keeping the ball low in the strike zone is a priority.

“The reality is, we did a really nice job (last season) of being behind the baseball,” Marmol said. “When groundballs were hit, we were positioned well. We are going to continue to encourage our guys to pitch to that.”

In other starter-related news, there is one Cardinals pitcher in the rotation conversation who has pitched five innings or more in a Grapefruit League game so far, and that’s opening-day starter Adam Wainwright. No one else has pitched more than three in Grapefruit League action. Don’t expect to see marathon starts from any Cardinals starter early in the season. Unless it’s Wainwright.

• Key reliever Genesis Cabrera’s velocity has been down a tick. He averaged 97.6 mph on his four-seamer last season. He didn’t throw one faster than 94 mph his last time out. Seeing that radar-gun reading climb would ease some concerns.

— No need for alarm, but Tyler O’Neill is 3 for 14 with no extra-base hits through six Grapefruit League games. He struck out three times Monday, twice on a curveball and once on a slider. Seeing O’Neill get some positive results to reward his process at the plate would be a good development before camp ended, if nothing else to calm premature hyperventilating about a slow start being a byproduct of the Cardinals taking a hard line arbitration approach with the left fielder who received NL MVP consideration last season.

— It would be very encouraging if Jack Flaherty was doing something with a baseball — even if it was just easing back into catch — before the moving trucks arrived. Flaherty’s previously announced two-week shutdown after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection is set to end this weekend.

— One last thing: Why not get that first Pujols home run out of the way?

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