We’ve been here several times before, but this also feels different.
Luke Thomas, Zain Westbrooke, Trevor Clarke, Sylvester Jasper, Bobby Thomas - all players who have been publicly named, shamed and criticised to varying degrees by Joey Barton during their time at Bristol Rovers.
But with the greatest of respect to each of those individuals, three were loanees and the other two largely peripheral squad players who, for whatever reasons, had been unable to make significant and sustained impacts in the first team and therefore not generated a level of affection with the fanbase.
Which is precisely why what’s transpired with James Belshaw over the last six weeks can’t quite be put in the same box. On the surface, maybe, because as the case study of Thomas shows, Barton’s tough love to the winger proved absolutely instrumental in not just turning his fortunes at Rovers around, but potentially also his career.
He may no longer reside in Bristol but, should all going according to plan, Thomas' burning desire to return to the West Country coupled with an expiring Barnsley contract he has, as yet, showed little desire to extend, could make him a full-time Rovers player from next season.
The mere fact he wants to come back and don the quarters again, and has done pretty much the minute he left the building last summer, is validation alone that while appearing cruel to some, Barton’s methods worked with that particular individual and perhaps will also with Belshaw.
Unlike the aforementioned players who were largely working under the manager from a standing start before being outed, he’s built up significant credit at the club: Player of the Year, a mainstay of the promotion team and who hadn’t missed a single league game until Ellery Balcombe’s arrival; it was just over 12 months ago that Barton was half-joking around that a statue should be erected outside the Mem following his performance against Hartlepool United.
And on the mural that wraps around the East Stand, greeting players as they make their way from the car park to the changing room, the fact he’s also alongside Ian Holloway, Rickie Lambert and Alfie Biggs only heightens his importance in terms of shaping the identity of Rovers in 2023.
For the last 18 months, Belshaw has been as synonymous with this Rovers team as Aaron Collins or potentially even Barton himself, albeit in a very different way.
The 32-year-old’s performances have ultimately provided the foundation to endear him to the Gas faithful but beyond that it’s been his personality, down-to-earth humour and his visibility as a consistent member of the community cause; last week he was on a panel with Paul Coutts, Lee Mansell, Byron Anthony and Geoff Twentyman discussing mental health as part of the Rebound with Rovers campaign.
Many fans have encountered and engaged with him in a personal way and he’s very much the antithesis to the theory that you should never meet your heroes.
There has been a degree of surprise not just at how he’s lost his place to Balcombe, but also the manner and subsequent fallout as what transpired before Tuesday’s 0-0 draw with Ipswich Town, as Barton revealed his reasons to BBC Radio Bristol, and then after as he went into greater depth in his post-match press conference. But, really, we should have all seen this coming because we were warned about it on December 29 after the 4-3 defeat to Exeter City.
"There are going to be lads in there (the dressing room) who are fans favourites etc, but they’re going to move on because if you don’t perform and produce for me..." Barton said.
“I want to win, and winners, you’ve got to be ruthless, it’s not about sentiment. The family community feel, I’ll level with you, it doesn’t really bother me. I’m here to win games of football and be an effective, efficient unit and at this moment in time, there are real bright sparks in our unit but also we’ve got some things we need to fix and fix them quickly if we’re going to have a successful season and get promoted.”
Those words were widely perceived as an attempt to give Belshaw a bit of a kick up the backside but planning and early talks had already taken place into signing a goalkeeper in the window and we should all know by now that Barton doesn’t really do the whole “mind games” nonsense. He meant every word, and he meant it about his No1.
It didn’t stop there either, the opportunity to move the 32-year-old on in the window was also explored, albeit tentatively given the risk of leaving themselves short in such a key area. With no viable exit route that made sense financially or for sporting reasons the plans were abandoned.
Very clearly, and moving slightly away from the attitude adjustment that is required (we’ll return to this in a moment, Barton has issues with apparent weaknesses in his goalkeeper’s game as he tries to evolve the team in the environment of League One.
Ipswich aside, the manager generally likes to play a high defensive line to push his team further up the pitch and squeeze opposition forwards and midfielders in areas where, in theory, they can’t immediately threaten the Rovers goal. Coupled with that, when you win the ball back you’re immediately in a position of strength on the field.
To do that you need fast and smart defenders to cover the space in behind, if required, but crucially a goalkeeper who knows how to marshall the area between the edge of his penalty area and the halfway line. It’s a huge part of the pitch and once upon a time the forbidden planet for any goalkeeper who used their hands and their hands only.
Those days, of course, are long gone and any high-level keeper now must be good with their feet. A very stark example is how quickly Pep Guardiola cast aside Joe Hart - then England’s No1 and part of the furniture at Manchester City for eight seasons - in favour of Claudio Bravo and then Ederson. At the time the Catalan was accused of borderline heresy and/or overthinking a position on the field which didn’t require such deep analysis. Hart kept the ball out of the net; what more do you want?
We may be witnessing a similar operation taking place in BS7 but, in Belshaw’s defence, he’s proven himself to be more than capable with his lower limbs and his long passing has at times been excellent.
The issue, somewhat ironically, has probably been the other side of the game which has then had an adverse effect on what Barton wants his No1 to do. In the 2021/22 league season, Belshaw finished the campaign with a save percentage of 75.2 per cent and his expected goals against (as in measuring the quality of each attempt) over his 42 appearances was 60.03 against his actual goals conceded of 60. Using that raw statistic, Belshaw was effectively par in terms of what went past him into the net.
This season, his save percentage has dropped to 63.6 per cent and his xGA is 43.42 with 45 conceded, providing a differential of 1.58; not a huge margin but evidence that he should be saving more than he is.
There are mitigating factors, of course, with Rovers’ defence not being as stoic and the general quality of the forwards they now face in the third tier compared to League Two. But very clearly Belshaw is letting in more than he was last season.
Perhaps that’s to be expected for the reasons stated but the key point is when you’re not performing as well as you want with one aspect of your game, it often has a knock-on effect elsewhere. The art of anticipation as a sweeper-keeper, if you want to use the term, is based on a subconscious ability to read time and space and know precisely when to leave your area and when to stay, based on the triangulations of where your defenders are and where you are relative to the ball and the attacking player.
We perhaps don’t appreciate it watching, but these are effectively quite complex mathematical equations worked out in very quick time. Almost to the point where there is no time to truly think about it, it becomes instinct.
If a goalkeeper starts to become inhibited by the nagging feeling in the back of his head that he should have saved a shot, or handled a cross better earlier in the contest, it clouds such a process and that momentary glitch or pause means the spring to the ball is suddenly mistimed and appears clumsy.
Exeter was very much an example of that and when something forms an idea in Barton’s head, it’s very hard for someone to shake it. In fairness to Belshaw, he did recover from that performance - where, it should be said, he also made some fine saves - with decent performances against Cheltenham Town and Cambridge United, but the seed had been sown.
And, in truth, he has lacked sufficient competition since Anssi Jaakkola has increasingly migrated to a coaching role with Jed Ward out on loan. And for all the Finn’s qualities and leadership, he does not conform to the idea of what Barton wants his starting goalkeeper to be, as stated above.
But having made 78 appearances for the club, signed a new contract last March which gave him a greater sense of permanence in this part of the world, Belshaw had every reason to feel a greater degree of security in his role and position at the club. Big mistake.
The arrival of Balcombe shattered an element of that because before we even knew about the clause, you cannot convince a Premier League club to redirect a loan player without providing some guarantees over their opportunities they will get. He was starting for Crawley Town, Brentford wouldn’t have terminated that arrangement unless they knew he would be in a position to earn sufficient minutes for Rovers.
In Belshaw’s defence, it can’t have been easy. As affable a character as he may be, we all have some degree of ego, and it’s hard when that’s threatened. Goalkeepers are an odd bunch at the best of times, colleagues and squad mates but also constant competitors for one jersey. They often train in their own isolated groups, away from the non-stop camaraderie and mickey taking among the rest of the squad. Balcombe’s arrival into the dynamic can’t have been comfortable for him, or Belshaw.
There is a certain cultural socialism that exists within a dressing room that outside observers probably don’t appreciate; everyone is created equal, whether that’s a seasoned and established first-team star such as Collins, Belshaw or Paul Coutts, or an Under-21 prospect like Ryan Jones or a new signing such as Grant Ward. Everyone has to be on the same footing, with their attitude, how they conduct themselves, and their place in the collective. There are leaders, and big personalities, but there is also a consistency of how rules and regulations are imposed on them.
So for all the currency Belshaw may have built up within the fanbase, at The Quarters it can’t ever exist, because the concept of favouritism or overlooking somebody stepping out of line - however minor it may seem - because of what they’ve achieved in the recent past can have a devastating effect on the rest of the group.
However, there is also an underlying paradox within this and perhaps speaks to the heart of the matter. Barton and his staff have eternally prided themselves on how intensely competitive the environment is on Hortham Lane. In their own words they’re “on” the players non-stop, constantly seeking self-improvement. It’s intense and, as we know, some haven’t been able to handle it.
Goalkeepers do exist in a slightly different universe to the rest of their teammates; because while Barton wanted that extra competition for Belshaw, and understandably so, he also wants the senior member to support Balcombe now he has taken the gloves off of him.
The issue for Belshaw, beyond the reasons stated above, is that some of that decision - at least in his eyes, anyway - hasn’t been due to him per se. It’s been down to the loan agreement signed with Brentford. Whether you deem that right or wrong is immaterial, it’s clearly had an impact on the previous incumbent and unquestionably has made the decision harder for him to swallow or accept.
We know this hasn’t been a Thomas-esque getting in his car and driving home-type expression of emotion or Jasper effectively downing tools because he, a Premier League talent, isn’t in the starting XI every week. No, it’s Belshaw probably being a little bit sullen and confused by how this whole situation has developed.
History under Barton tells us that ultimately he will get this decision right, in the context of Rovers’ performances. As we witnessed on Tuesday, on the back of encouraging displays against MK Dons and Lincoln City, Balcombe is clearly a talented goalkeeper who should continue on an upward trajectory.
The challenge for Belshaw is not just to win back his place in the team, but win back his manager’s affections via the day-to-day grind of warm-ups, handling exercises and leaping about in the mud every morning. History should also tell him that there’s every chance he can do so, but equally there’s a chance he may not. And it's just something everyone has to get used to.
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