Belarus may be preparing to send its soldiers into Ukraine in support of the Russian invasion, perhaps as soon as this week, according to a US defence official, amid mounting concern about Minsk’s military preparations.
Belarus has already been used as a staging post by Russian forces, who gathered there on the pretext of joint military exercises before last week’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now there is increasing evidence that Minsk may be moving towards becoming an explicit participant in the war.
On Monday it announced it was revoking its non-nuclear status after a referendum, allowing Russian weapons to be placed in Belarus. The move provoked rare protests in the country.
Last week the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, said the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, was allowing his country to become a Russian satellite state, and on Sunday night the US official said: “It’s very clear Minsk is now an extension of the Kremlin.”
Russian and Ukrainian delegations were due to hold talks about the conflict in southern Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, on Monday. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office said on the Telegram app that his delegation had arrived, including the defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, a close adviser to the president and the deputy foreign minister.
“The key issue of the negotiations is an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine,” Zelenskiy’s office said.
On Monday images appeared on social media that it was claimed showed a convoy of the 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian army near Kobryn in Belarus’s Brest region already displaying what were said to be “friendly force” identification markers used to avoid fratricide between allied forces.
Alarming video from the western part of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. A convoy of 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian army (not Russian) near Kobryn in Brest region. Most of the vehicles are marked with red squares - makes sense if Lukashenko is about to join the war. pic.twitter.com/mKZr7frDoD
— Tadeusz Giczan 🇺🇦 (@TadeuszGiczan) February 28, 2022
Images have emerged in recent days of trains loaded with tanks reportedly arriving in the city of Brest in south-west Belarus and there have been reports of missile and aircraft launches from within Belarus.
Commenting on the new buildup on the Belarusian side of the border, Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations said: “This was to be expected, part of Putin’s plan B. More brute force.”
He questioned the utility to Russia of active Belarusian military forces on the ground. “I have some doubts about their effectiveness and morale. They had issues with desertion since 2020. So let’s see. Let’s also see where they are deployed. Will they try to cut off the Polish border? Or will they advance on Kyiv?”
On Sunday, Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian internal affairs minister, said Iskander missiles had been launched from Belarus towards Ukraine. “The launch of Iskanders across Ukraine from Mozyr region. Launch around 1700,” he wrote on Telegram. He posted a video showing a missile being fired reportedly towards the Rivne region bordering Belarus.
Zelenskiy appealed to Belarus on Sunday to stay out of Russia’s war. “In the war that is going on now, you are not on the same side with us,” he said in a recorded message. “From your territory, the troops of the Russian Federation launch rockets into Ukraine.
“Our children are being killed from your territory, our houses are being destroyed, they are trying to blow up everything that has been built over decades – and, by the way, not only by us, but also by our fathers, our grandfathers.
“And all this is also a de facto referendum for you, Belarusians. You decide who you are. You decide who to be. How will you look into the eyes of your children, how will you look into the eyes of each other, your neighbours. We are your neighbours. We are Ukrainians. Be Belarus, not Russia. You are making this choice right today.”
About 800 people were arrested as Belarus voted to ditch its non-nuclear status. The vote sparked the biggest protests in months as thousands took to the streets. Lukashenko has imposed a sweeping crackdown on dissent after a contested election challenged his grip on power in 2020.
The vote to change the constitution, passed by 65%, according to official data, could lead to the return of nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory for the first time since the country gave them up after the fall of the Soviet Union.
On Sunday, speaking at a polling station, Lukashenko said he could ask Russia to return nuclear weapons to Belarus. “If you [the west] transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away without any conditions,” Lukashenko said.
