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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Paul Bretl

Behind the Numbers: Packers trending in wrong direction following loss to Raiders

This is a Green Bay Packers team that is very much heading in the wrong direction after five games. Rather than seeing incremental improvements each week, the Packers, especially the offense, seem to be going backwards.

The defense was able to hold up its end of the bargain against the Las Vegas Raiders, but the offense struggled mightily. The Packers are now 2-3 heading into the bye week and are a team with more questions than answers. Everything needs to be under a microscope at this point.

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Looking back on Green Bay’s performance, here are the stats and figures that defined what we saw on the football field.

2: Completions from Love over 5 yards

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) attempts a pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The passing game was abysmal on Monday, to put it simply. According to ESPN, Jordan Love was 14-for-20 on pass attempts of fewer than five yards but just 2-for-10 on passes of five-plus yards with three interceptions. Everything about the passing game looked disjointed—there seemed to be little rhyme or reason behind what was being called or the execution of it.

This was an offense that pushed the ball downfield often this season, but through three quarters, it looked like the game plan was almost taking away those opportunities from Love. Then in the fourth quarter, those deep attempts felt forced from a young quarterback who had grown impatient. The play-action concepts failed to build off of the run game and through two-plus quarters of football, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were non-factors.

What we saw was an offense without an identity. When things get tough, there isn’t that one player or concept for this group to lean on. They are left grasping at straws and every aspect becomes a massive challenge.

“There’s some things we will look at and we could do better and there’s some things I need to do a better job in terms of what we are asking him to do,” said LaFleur, “and not putting him in a position where he’s susceptible to maybe throwing those picks.

“The second interception was a get back on track situation and we’ve got to do a better job offensively, it just seems like we put ourselves in those situations quite a bit over the course of the first five games of the season and that’s hard to over come, especially when you have a lot of youth on that side of the ball. We’ve got to do a better job of trying to avoid those situations and not put ourselves in them.”

From the game plan and what Matt LaFleur is asking this offense to do, to Love’s accuracy, to the pass catchers being more detailed and precise with their routes, everything needs to be evaluated and scrutinized. With a struggling run game and an ineffective passing game, defenses really have nothing to fear.

7: Quarterback pressures for Maxx Crosby

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) is interviewed by ESPN sideline reporter Lisa Saltes after the game against the Green Bay Packers at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Matt LaFleur said earlier in the week that Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby was relentless, and we saw that on full display. Crosby finished the game with seven pressures, including a sack, and even when not getting home, he was a disruptor. Coming off the performance that the Packers’ offensive line had against Detroit, I do wonder if that played a factor in LaFleur’s game plan, which featured a lot of shorter passes, perhaps in an effort to avoid Crosby. Outside of Crosby, this is not a Raiders defensive front that has been very disruptive this season.

25.7: Packers pressure rate on Jimmy Garoppolo

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers linebacker Preston Smith (91) celebrates against the Las Vegas Raiders] in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers defense was able to come up with a trio of third down sacks, but for the most part, Jimmy Garoppolo had the time he needed in the pocket. According to PFF, he was pressured on only 25.7 percent of his dropbacks, which for some context, over the course of the season, would have ranked 33rd overall. It’s not always easy with Garoppolo utilizing the quick passing game, but pressuring him is a key. When under pressure this season, Garoppolo is completing just 36 percent of his passes 3.8 yards per attempt. It was an overall good performance by the defense, but they didn’t pressure the quarterback enough.

-2: Packers turnover differential

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) prepares to take the snap against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Very rarely will you ever see a team win a game after finishing minus-two in turnover differential. Believe it or not, the Raiders actually entered this game with the worst differential in football at minus-nine, with Garoppolo leading the NFL in interceptions. Unfortunately, the Packers weren’t able to take advantage, largely because of poor play from Love. On one interception, Love somehow never saw the linebacker, but even if that player wasn’t there, the receiver was covered well. The second interception occurred off a tipped ball that he tried to fit into a tight window. The last took place on the final play of the game, when Love under threw Watson in the end zone. After throwing no interceptions the first two games, Love has six in the last three and has now thrown the second-most interceptions in football.

1/3: Packers in the red zone

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws towards the end zone under pressure from Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackle Adam Butler (69) at the end of the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers offense entered Monday’s game as one of the most efficient units in the red zone this season. Even without a strong run game, LaFleur has dialed up some creative plays to get guys in space and Love has used his legs in this part of the field. However, against the Raiders, the Packers were just 1-for-3 inside the 20-yard line. Conversely, Las Vegas was 2-for-3 and ultimately that was the difference in the game.

“For us, the red zone has been good but it wasn’t good tonight,” said Love. “We didn’t score a passing touchdown but we scored one with a rush, but that’s an area we’ve been good at but it wasn’t good tonight. Like we said, starting fast, getting some points early and capitalize when we get to the red zone.”

3.3 and 45: Jacobs yards per rush and Adams total yards

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 09: Rasul Douglas #29 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a defensive play during the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on October 09, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

As LaFleur said after the game, the defense did enough for the Packers to win this game. Running back Josh Jacobs was held to just 3.3 yards per carry and Davante Adams totaled just 45 yards on four receptions.

“I thought our defense competed hard and did enough for us to win the game,” said Matt LaFleur afterward. “Offensively, we’ve got to find a way to score points. I think anytime you hold somebody to 17 points, I think that’s enough to win football games in this league.”

While there is still room for improvement, overall we saw a less passive Packers defense. They had more defenders near the line of scrimmage and the cornerbacks were challenging the receivers more as well—all of which helped slow the run game and muddy up the middle of hte field on shallow routes, where Garoppolo likes to go with the ball. Against Adams, the Packers deployed a similar strategy as they used in Week 17 last season against Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson by having safety help directly over the top, essentially creating a double-team opportunity.

3.7: AJ Dillon’s yards per carry

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) celebrates with teammates after scoring on a 5-yard touchdown run against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Alright, look: 3.7 yards per carry is nothing to write home about—although it does certainly showcase the state of the Green Bay run game given that I’m talking about it. But the Packers were able to find more traction on the ground than what they have in recent weeks. At almost four yards per attempt, the run game at least isn’t a detriment at that point and can be leaned on if needed.

In several instances, the rushing attack helped keep them ahead of the sticks, something that has been an issue this season, AJ Dillon was the catalyst behind the Packers lone touchdown drive, and it helped set up play-action opportunities. Dillon looked like his old self at times, showcasing a decisiveness and physicality that we haven’t often seen.

“Just reflecting on how the game laid out,” said LaFleur, “probably needed to stick with the run a little bit more. In the second half we got under center for a majority of the second half and I thought really helped us with some more downhill runs. I thought AJ was running really hard. I thought our O-line was coming off the ball and that kind of got us going a little bit.”

33: Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs the ball against the Detroit Lions during their football game on Thursday, September 28, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Lions won the game, 34-20. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Aaron Jones is fantastic—we all know that. He’s the straw that stirs the drink when it comes to the Packers offense. To put it simply, this unit is just different when he’s on the field and involved. Based on what LaFleur said post game, it sounds like Jones had a setback on Saturday, which kept him out of Monday’s game. Announcer Troy Aikman would say during the broadcast that LaFleur was “exasperated” when he found out Jones wasn’t going to be available. I think that Jones’ absence on Monday, in particular, showed us the offense’s struggles with implementing timely adjustments.

That close to the game, it’s not as if the Packers can fully scrap the gameplan, but Patrick Taylor was being asked to fill a Jones-like role at times. There’s no reason that Taylor should have more targets at halftime than Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs combined. Green Bay’s lack of timely adjustment has put them in major holes the previous two games against New Orleans and Detroit, and would have against Las Vegas had the Raiders been better at capitalizing on scoring opportunities. It’s great that the Packers find a lot of success on offense in the third quarter, but it can’t take until halftime for those changes to take place.

In part, that’s on coaching, but it’s also a reflection of the inexperience on offense as well. Love mentioned last week how the offense, specifically the pass catchers, have struggled with unscouted looks during games.

“Obviously we miss Aaron Jones not being out there,” said Love, “but that’s not an excuse, we’ve got to find a way to go win. AJ had a great game tonight. He stepped up and was running the ball great. PT stepped up and had some big plays but we’ve just got to find a way to win.”

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