IT’S a pretty fair bet that no major geopolitical decision made in Washington happens without a weighing up of Chinese interests and reactions.
That’s what makes any meeting like the one this week between US president Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping always worth watching.
This will be the third get-together in just under a year for the leaders of the two most powerful nations, and the timing could not be more significant given the current turbulent state of the world.
It’s always a fascinating tussle between these two very different men and one that gives rise to the inevitable question of who is likely to hold the upper hand at the end of the latest negotiations.
Last year it became evident that both the US and China have the capacity to land heavy blows on each other. There was Trump’s imposed tariffs and technology controls on the one hand and Xi’s retaliation in the shape of restricting the export of rare earths and other vital materials needed for American industry.
Whenever the two meet you, always get the sense that even Trump’s arrogance is tempered by the reality that he’s come up against a formidable operator in Xi.
You only need to cast your mind back to just before Trump left for Beijing and their last round of talks in May to recall how the US leader was at pains to stress how well they get on.
Xi is “a friend of mine” and “somebody we get along with”, Trump insisted, only to find that his “friend” ensured he left China fairly empty-handed.
This time around it’s Xi who will be determined to make sure he returns home with something in the bag from the key areas that are likely to occupy their talks.
Most analysts say Xi’s most urgent goal will be to extend a trade truce that the two leaders sealed in the South Korean city of Busan last October after going toe-to-toe over tariffs.
Watch out too for discussion on the increasingly thorny issue of national security risks of artificial intelligence (AI).
Then there is what to do about Iran, with Xi focused on China’s purchase of Iranian oil and Trump trying to extricate himself from the self-imposed quagmire the US war has created there.
And speaking of geopolitical conflicts – or at least potential ones – Xi will likely be keen to lay down a marker against Washington’s support for Taiwan, not least that $14 billion US arms package.
It’s perhaps only natural that in fighting their respective corners both Trump and Xi might be tempted to focus on the other’s weakness.
But as Dr Jennifer Lind, associate fellow of the US and North America Programme at the British-based international affairs think tank Chatham House recently warned, underestimating the other’s power would be unwise.
Viewed from Washington’s perspective, says Lind, there might be some recognition of China’s economic vulnerabilities that could lull America into thinking China will limit its international ambitions.
“But Washington should not misjudge Chinese power. China possesses formidable industrial might, with dominance in areas such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar power, drones and telecommunications equipment… and rivals the US in AI,” Lind stresses.
Seen from a Chinese perspective meanwhile, “just as Washington should not mistake China’s problems for strategic weakness, Beijing should not mistake US dysfunction for decline,” Lind and other analysts also argue.
That said, with a burgeoning debt of $40 trillion and Trump’s approval ratings falling to a career low just as the midterm elections bear down in November, America is far from a happy or stable place right now.
In fact, according to the latest NPR/PBS/Marist poll, by a 12-point margin, registered voters say they’d prefer to elect a Democrat to Congress over a Republican.
In short, more voters think Democrats would do a better job dealing with gas prices, the economy, and foreign policy than Republicans amid rising prices and the war in Iran.
In other words, the midterms are all about Trump and his policies, and Xi knows that too. The Chinese leader also knows that Trump has little room to manoeuvre, meaning that Xi has greater diplomatic clout and a likely willingness to use it than he did in their last meeting in Beijing.
As one former Trump administration official who was granted anonymity to preview the summit for the press glumly summed it up this week, the goal of the meeting is “to prevent something very bad from happening ... there’s not really a deal to be done. It’s about keeping the tensions within manageable bounds.”
Some analysts are convinced then that what we will likely see over the next few days is both China and the US continuing to circle each other warily, with Xi and his government happy to maintain a period of fragile calm and with one eye already on what comes next in the US as Trump’s political trajectory declines.
Adding to this interpretation, is that many of the recognised China “hawks” in the current administration have had their talons clipped under Trump who has wanted things done his way when dealing with Beijing.
For now, that will likely continue and the indications are that Trump is really going all out to treat Xi with respect in what will be his first full state visit to the US since 2015.
Both leaders love pomp and ceremony and there will be plenty of that at the White House with a military honour guard and even a flyover by American fighter jets and bombers, which is also pretty unusual for a visiting foreign leader, especially a Chinese one. But while the style of the summit matters, what matters more for the world at large is its substance.
Tension between these two superpowers remain and it’s worth remembering it wasn’t that long ago we were in the midst of full of a full-blown trade war between them.
Both men are certainly not lacking in self-confidence, but if Trump is now betting on his personal rapport with Xi to advance America’s goals, so far there hasn’t been much tangible to show for it. It will be a fascinating encounter in which the stakes could not be higher. Most observers don’t foresee any dramatic outcome – but you never know.
As Trump has repeatedly demonstrated, the only predictable thing about him is his unpredictability and things could go sour in a moment.
Should that happen and it again becomes an all-out trade or geopolitical tussle, I know who my money is on for walking away with a better outcome – and it’s not the “Narcissist-in-Chief.”
