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Mitchell Northam

Behind the AP Top 25 Poll: Why LSU is No. 1 on this preseason women’s basketball ballot

The start of the 2023-24 women’s college basketball season is less than a month away. It’s going to begin with a bang, as Notre Dame faces South Carolina in Paris, and Virginia Tech battles Iowa in Charlotte in a pair of noteworthy non-conference clashes in the opening week. Later in November, we’ll also see a few other ranked-versus-ranked matchups in the inaugural SEC-ACC Challenge.

This season will feature the return of UConn’s Paige Bueckers, the introduction of an anti-flopping rule, and the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it — where players like Stanford’s Cameron Brink are expected to shine and be the face of the league.

And of course, Iowa’s Caitlin Clark and LSU’s Angel Reese — the latter of which received some noteworthy reinforcements from the transfer portal — are back again too, poised to lead their teams back to the Final Four.

This is my fourth season as a voter in the Associated Press Top 25 Poll for women’s college basketball. Each week during the season, I’ll break down my ballot here after turning it in to give some thoughts on the best teams in the nation.

Before the season starts, us voters are asked to submit preseason ballots. Here’s how mine shook out.

Also considered: Marquette, Kansas, Illinois, Creighton

25
Baylor

The Bears were 17th in assisted shot rate and 54th in scoring last season. The engine that made the offense go, Sarah Andrews, is back to lead the Bears as point guard, as is Aijha Blackwell — who was an All-SEC selection at Missouri before missing most of last season, her first with Baylor, with an injury. Third-year head coach Nicki Collen also brought in Yaya Felder, who was ninth in the nation in scoring last season at Ohio with 22 points per game. In the front court, returner Darianna Littlepage-Buggs is joined by now-eligible Dre’Una Edwards and 6-foot-7 freshman Letycia Vasconcelos. Also coming via transfer is guard Jada Walker, who averaged 12.9 points and 3.1 assists for Kentucky last season.

24
Florida State

(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

One team in the country has Ta’Niya Latson and the others do not. That will give Florida State an edge all year long, just as it did last season. In Latson’s freshman campaign, she averaged 21.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists on her way to becoming the consensus National Freshman of the Year and leading FSU to an NCAA Tournament berth. Unfortunately, she got hurt near the end of the season, so fans never got to see Latson shine in the postseason. She now seems ready for an encore and will be joined by Makayla Timpson and UC Santa Barbara transfer Alexis Tucker. This team will go as far as Latson can take it.

23
Miami

 (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Hurricanes went on a magical run last season, advancing to the Elite Eight for the first time ever, notching upset victories over Oklahoma State, Indiana and Villanova along the way. Even in its regional final loss to LSU, the Canes held the Tigers — then the nation’s fourth-best offense — to its season-low scoring total. All in all, it was a massively successful season for Katie Meier’s side. The question now is, was that just lightning-in-a-bottle, or is that success sustainable? The Cavinder twins, Destiny Harden and Lola Pendande are gone, but Miami added former ACC Rookie of the Year Shayeann Day-Wilson, All-Ivy League selection Jaida Patrick, and All-WCC selection Ally Stedman in the transfer portal. Jasmyne Roberts is back too after really breaking out in the postseason for Miami last year, averaging 19 points per game through the NCAA Tournament.

22
Louisville

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals are going to look a lot different this year with Hailey Van Lith and some of her costars departing, but one thing is certain at Louisville under Jeff Walz: No matter the roster makeup, the team will be talented enough to compete in the NCAA Tournament. Since Walz took over in 2007, Louisville has advanced to at least the Sweet 16 in 12 of his 16 seasons on the job. The Cardinals haven’t missed the Big Dance since 2010. This year, Walz will be tasked with making a trio of transfers — Kiki Jefferson (James Madison), Jayda Curry (Cal) and Sydney Taylor (UMass) — mesh with returners Nyla Harris and Olivia Cochran. On paper, the team seems talented enough to add to Walz’s collection of tourney appearances.

21
Texas

The Longhorns won the Big 12 last year, but underachieved a bit in the NCAA Tournament, falling at home in the second round. Most of that core is back, including a dynamic backcourt of Rori Harmon and Shaylee Gonzales. A healthy Aaliyah Moore, and the addition of top recruit Madison Booker, should help Texas maintain a presence in the Top 25 all season long.

20
Colorado

(Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

The Buffaloes went into Cameron Indoor Stadium in last season’s NCAA Tournament and notched a second-round victory over Duke to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 20 years. Most of the players that made that happen are back, including starters Quay Miller, Jaylyn Sherrod and Aaronette Vonleh — the Co-Most Improved Player in the Pac-12 last year. Joining the Buffs is Maddie Nolan, a career 36.6 percent 3-point shooter in four seasons at Michigan.

19
Kansas State

Y’all remember Ayoka Lee? She averaged 22 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game in the 2021-22 season, a campaign in which she scored 61 points (!) in a win over Oklahoma. Lee missed all of last season as she recovered from a knee injury. Without her, the Wildcats still had a winning season and advanced to the Super 16 of the WNIT. Joining Lee will be Gabby Gregory and her 18.5 points per game, playmaking point guard Serena Sundell, and sisters Jaelyn and Brylee Glenn. If Lee can return to her old form and mesh with this unit of guards that took steps forward last year, K-State could contend for the Big 12 crown this season.

18
N.C. State

Last season didn’t end the way the Wolfpack wanted it to as they failed to make the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016. Key players from that unit return — like guards Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James, and forwards Mimi Collins and River Baldwin — but coach Wes Moore has bolstered this unit with four top 75 recruits, including Zoe Brooks, a McDonalds All-American who won the 2022 WNBA All-Star Skills Challenge. Also joining N.C. State is sharpshooter Katie Peneueta via transfer from Sacramento State, and Lizzy Williamson, who was named WAC Defensive Player of the Year last season at Southern Utah.

17
Notre Dame

The big question with Notre Dame is this: Will Olivia Miles play this season, and if so, how much? With her, the Irish won the ACC regular season title last year. Without her, they got raced off the floor by Louisville in the ACC Tournament, and then by Maryland in the Sweet 16. The good news is, if Miles can’t play, Notre Dame did bring in another pure point guard in Hannah Hidalgo, ranked as the fifth-best overall recruit in the 2023 class by ESPN. And much of Miles’ stellar teammates — Sonia Citron, Maddy Westbeld, KK Bransford and Kylee Watson — return. Also joining the group is Anna DeWolfe, a solid 3-point shooter from Fordham. If Miles is healthy, Notre Dame should be viewed as a contender. If she isn’t, the Irish’s ceiling may be limited.

16
Mississippi State

(Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

The Bulldogs were awesome in Sam Purcell’s first season on the job, making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 and giving Notre Dame everything it could handle in the second round. Mississippi State could be even better this year. Leading scorer and rebounder Jessika Carter returns and so does 40.2 percent 3-point shooter JerKaila Jordan. And joining them is DePaul transfer Darrione Rogers — who averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last season — and Seton Hall transfer Lauren Park-Lane, a three-time All-Big East selection who led the NCAA in assists in the 2021-22 season. Also added to the mix for the Bulldogs is a freshman class with three top 100 recruits.

15
Stanford

 Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not often that Stanford deals with this much turnover. Of the 12 players that saw the most minutes for the Cardinal last season, six of them are gone, including players like Lauren Betts, Indya Nivar and Agnes Emma-Nnopu who each seemed primed for bigger roles this year. The good news is that Stanford is still armed with Hannah Jump and Cameron Brink — the latter of whom enters this season as top WNBA prospect and one of the best post players in the country.

14
Ole Miss

 Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

By upsetting Stanford, Ole Miss made the Sweet 16 last year for the first time since 2007 and just the second time since 1992. Entering her sixth season on the job, coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin promised to “do damage” in the portal and did not disappoint. She added All-ACC selection Kennedy Todd-Williams from North Carolina, Florida Gators’ leading scorer KK Deans, and Kharyssa Richardson, who averaged 7.2 points and 4.7 rebounds per game last season as a freshman at Auburn. Leading rebounder Madison Scott also returns for Ole Miss. The question now is, after shocking a lot of folks last season, can Coach Yo’s team live up to the hype this year?

13
Indiana

No, South Carolina fans, Indiana is not my preseason No. 1.

Anyways…

The Hoosiers are poised for another strong season where they should contend for a Big Ten title. Grace Berger is gone, but All-American Mackenzie Holmes returns along with Yarden Garzon, Chloe Moore-McNeil, Sara Scalia and Sydney Parrish. Indiana has the makings of a successful offensive formula by surrounding Holmes with sharp 3-point shooters.

12
Utah

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Utah made the Sweet 16 for just the third time in program history last season and is running back with the same group as each of the team’s top seven players in minutes-played return. Leading that group is Alissa Pilli, the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year who averaged 20.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game last season. The Robin to Pilli’s Batman is Gianna Kneepkens, who was fourth in the Pac-12 in offensive rating last season. The addition of Wisconsin transfer Maty Wilke — who averaged 11.8 points per game last year — should be a boost too.

11
Maryland

Diamond Miller and Abby Meyers are gone, but the Terps still bring back most of the core that gave South Carolina a good fight in the Elite Eight last year. That group is led by Shyanne Sellers, and she’s surrounded by returners Faith Masonius, Lavender Briggs and Brinae Alexander. The Terps also added another experienced shooter in N.C. State transfer Jakia Brown-Turner, and finally have a true post player again with the addition of 6-foot-7 Hawa Doumbouya, who is ranked as the seventh-best recruit in the 2023 class. Brenda Frese will again have a team that’s expected to contend for the Big Ten title and to go on a deep run in March.

10
USC

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Trojans fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year, but it was their first appearance in the Big Dance in nearly a decade. USC should be much better this season, Lindsay Gottlieb’s third at the helm. The Trojans brought in two experienced shooters from the Ivy League in Kayla Padilla and McKenzie Forbes — both of whom shot better than 38 percent from 3-point land last season — and will also be bolstered by the addition of the nation’s No. 1 recruit, JuJu Watkins. USC also brought in a third Ivy League transfer in Columbia’s Kaitlyn Davis, who averaged 13.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game last season. These four will combine with returning post Rayah Marshall, who was the first Trojan to average a double-double in a season since Tina Thompson in 1996-97 and broke Lisa Leslie’s single-season blocks record last year.

9
North Carolina

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

There’s a lot of uncertainty around the ACC this season with injuries and roster shakeups. What is clear is that the Tar Heels got better in the offseason. Yes, they lost Kennedy Todd-Williams and Destiny Adams in the portal, but they also gained Boston College’s Maria Gakdeng, Iowa State’s Lexi Donarski and Stanford’s Indya Nivar. Gakdeng gives UNC a legitimate rim protector and reliable post scorer for perhaps the first time in Courtney Banghart’s tenure as the head coach of UNC. Donarski is not only a career 36 percent 3-point shooter, but also a former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. And Nivar is a former 5-star recruit and talented wing who is eager to contribute after not seeing the floor all that often at Stanford last season. All three were highly sought after transfers in the offseason, and all three chose Carolina. They join a core that includes Anya Poole, Teonni Key, Paulina Paris, and All-ACC selections in Deja Kelly and Alyssa Ustby. This UNC team is deep and talented.

8
South Carolina

 Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Gamecocks are entering a new era. Aliyah Boston and her class of “Freshies” are gone, but what remains is still an incredibly talented team that includes Raven Johnson, Ashlyn Watkins, Bree Hall and a likely future WNBA lottery pick in Kamilla Cardoso, who is armed with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, ensuring that South Carolina will still be strong in the paint. The group will be boosted by the addition of Oregon transfer Te-Hina Paopao, Rutgers transfer Sakima Walker, and a pair of 5-star recruits in Milaysia Fulwiley and Chloe Kitts. While Boston may be gone, Dawn Staley is still on the sideline, and we can be sure that she’ll have her team competing at the highest level it is capable of reaching.

7
Tennessee

On paper, this roster is as good as any in the country. Not only do WNBA prospects Tamari Key and Rickea Jackson return, but so do key contributors in Jillian Hollingshead, Tess Darby, Jasmine Powell, Karoline Striplin and Sara Puckett. Moreover, Tennessee upgraded its backcourt in the portal, bringing in Belmont’s Destinee Wells and Wake Forest’s Jewel Spear, both of whom averaged north of 16 points per game last season. If Kellie Harper can make all the pieces fit, this team could contend for the SEC title.

6
UCLA

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Bruins bring back eight of their top nine players from a year ago, including a pair of dynamic guards capable of creating shots for their selves and others in Kiki Rice and Charisma Osborne, the latter of whom passed up the chance to be a WNBA lottery pick to return for a fifth season. Perhaps more notable than the returners though is the fact that UCLA added Lauren Betts through the transfer portal. After playing just 9.6 minutes per game last season at Stanford, Betts — who is every bit of 6-foot-7 — became the first No. 1 overall recruit by ESPN’s rankings to transfer since Elena Delle Donne left UConn for Delaware in 2008. Expectations will be high for the Bruins this season.

5
Virginia Tech

 Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Somehow, Virginia Tech made the Final Four last year — and led LSU heading into the fourth quarter of the national semifinals — by playing essentially a six-player rotation. They were able to get away with it because two of those players in Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore are supremely talented and would start on every team in the nation. Both of them, and fifth-year 3-and-D wing Cayla King are back in Blacksburg to run it back after a historic campaign last season. Head coach Kenny Brooks bolstered his depth through the portal though, adding Michigan State’s Matilda Ekh, Minnesota’s Rose Micheaux, and Wake Forest’s Olivia Summiel. Brooks also brought in a freshman class with four top 100 recruits. The Hokies are still the team to beat in the ACC.

4
Ohio State

 Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Beating the likes of North Carolina and UConn along the way, the Buckeyes made the Elite Eight last season for the first time since 1993. Two players that made that historic run possible — Jacy Sheldon and Cotie McMahon — are back, as are other key contributors in Taylor Thierry, Rikki Harris and Rebeka Mikulasikova, whose play was crucial to Ohio State ranking eighth nationally in both points and steals per game. The Buckeyes will have to grapple with the loss of sharpshooter Taylor Mikesell, but they made their defense even better by adding Duke’s Celeste Taylor — a finalist for the National Defensive Player of the Year award — in the transfer portal. Scoring on the Buckeyes is going to be difficult this season.

3
Iowa

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY 

This team has Caitlin Clark. As long as that is true, it will be expected to compete for championships. To contend for both the Big Ten and national championships again though, the Hawkeyes will have to figure out how to replace the production of Monika Czinano. While Clark was always the focal point of an opposing defense, teams still had to contend with Czinano’s ability inside. There will be times this season that Clark wins games all on her own again by dropping eye-popping triple-doubles, but there will also be times where she needs a Robin for Iowa to be successful. Gabbie Marshall, Kate Martin, Addison O’Grady and Hannah Stuelke may have to take turns filling that role.

2
UConn

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the names of some of the players on the Huskies’ roster: Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, Nika Muhl, Aaliyah Edwards, Aubrey Griffin, Caroline Ducharme, Ice Brady, KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade, Amari DeBerry and Qadence Samuels

We might — finally — get to see a UConn team with Bueckers, Fudd, Muhl and Edwards at full strength for a full season. If so, don’t count on this team going out in the Sweet 16 again.

1
LSU

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

It’s not just that they’re the reigning national champs. And it’s not just that Angel Reese, Flau’jae Johnson and Kateri Poole are back. And it’s not just that the Tigers won the transfer portal by adding Hailey Van Lith and Aneesah Morrow. And it’s not just that LSU landed two top 10 recruits in Mikaylah Williams and Aalyah Del Rosario.

It’s all of those things combined. LSU is officially a juggernaut in women’s college basketball, alongside of the likes of UConn, South Carolina, Stanford and Notre Dame. They are a Death Star. They will be expected to win another national championship and anything less will be seen as a failure.

And they will have a target on their backs all season long. They’re about to get the best games out of every opponent they play. Can the Tigers meet these expectations? We’re about to find out very soon.

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