Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
Put them in any order you want, but if the top-3 teams in college football, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State, keep playing like they are and keep winning, they’re basically locks for the College Football Playoff come December.
So what about everyone else — like Clemson, Michigan, USC or even another SEC team — looking to steal that fourth playoff spot?
This week, Before The Snap is breaking down what the remaining top teams have done, what their upcoming schedules look like and whether or not they’re playoff contenders or pretenders.
But we have a more calculated look at which teams have the best chance to make the playoff too.
So ahead of Week 5’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
- Playoff: 85.3 percent
- National championship game: 60.7 percent
- Win championship: 38.3 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
- Playoff: 78.3 percent
- National championship game: 47.2 percent
- Win championship: 24.3 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)
- Playoff: 71.8 percent
- National championship game: 42.0 percent
- Win championship: 21.4 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (4-0)
- Playoff: 43.1 percent
- National championship game: 14.6 percent
- Win championship: 4.9 percent
Since last week’s College Football Playoff watch, Alabama’s and Ohio State’s playoff chances are up big, Clemson’s chance increased too but not by as much and Georgia’s are down slightly down — but nothing to be concerned with. It’s clear who the playoff frontrunners are this year — they’re often the same year after year anyway — but this week, Alabama jumped Georgia for the top spot on this list.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 5:
5. Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
- Playoff: 30.3 percent
- National championship game: 10.7 percent
- Win championship: 3.6 percent
6. USC Trojans (4-0)
- Playoff: 26.3 percent
- National championship game: 7.3 percent
- Win championship: 2.5 percent
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0)
- Playoff: 10.0 percent
- National championship game: 2.5 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)
- Playoff: 9.6 percent
- National championship game: 2.4 percent
- Win championship: 0.5 percent
9. Utah Utes (3-1)
- Playoff: 6.7 percent
- National championship game: 1.7 percent
- Win championship: 0.5 percent
10. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
- Playoff: 6.6 percent
- National championship game: 2.0 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
Since last week, Oklahoma, Texas and Tennessee have dropped off the list of teams with the top-10 playoff chances, and they were replaced by Minnesota, Utah and Ole Miss.
