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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli and Evan Thorpe

Before The Snap: Which teams are emerging as dark-horse College Football Playoff contenders?

Football College Football Playoff Clemson Georgia (Organization) Ohio State Alabama (Organization) NC State

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

The 2022 College Football Playoff race is shaping up to be less of a race and more of a foregone conclusion. Sure, it’s only Week 6, and there’s a ton of football to still be played.

But unless something disastrous happens to one of these teams, it’s pretty likely that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will make up three of the four playoff teams. If that scenario plays out, it leaves teams like Clemson, Michigan and USC fighting for that last spot.

So if those six teams are playoff contenders this season, what about the dark horses?

It’s going to be awfully tough for some of these super outside candidates to keep up with some of the powerhouses and make the four-team playoff, but we’re rooting for a fun playoff race with chaos and room for debate.

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Going into Week 6’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)

Playoff: 86.9 percent
National championship game: 62.8 percent
Win championship: 41.2 percent

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)

Playoff: 78.3 percent
National championship game: 47.4 percent
Win championship: 24.8 percent

3. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)

Playoff: 64.9 percent
National championship game: 34.6 percent
Win championship: 15.7 percent

4. Clemson Tigers (5-0)

Playoff: 52.2 percent
National championship game: 18.2 percent
Win championship: 6.3 percent

After beating Arkansas last week without quarterback Bryce Young for much of the game, Alabama’s playoff chances in all three categories went up slightly. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s chances, after a Rutgers win, are virtually identical all around compared with last week’s numbers.

And compared with Week 5, Clemson’s chance to make the playoff (43.1 percent), advance to the title game (14.6 percent) and win it all (4.9 percent) got a notable boost after beating N.C. State. As we’ve previously speculated, if the Tigers could take down both Wake Forest and N.C. State, they’d be back to being a playoff frontrunner and could reasonably finish the season with an undefeated record and an ACC championship.

Georgia’s playoff chances, on the other hand, took a small but clear tumble after the Bulldogs had to come from behind to beat Missouri, 26-22, in Week 5. Last week, their chance to make the playoff was at 71.8 percent, advancing to the national championship game was at 42.0 percent and winning a second consecutive title was at 21.4 percent. Nothing to be concerned about as Georgia is still very much a playoff favorite, but the gap between it and Clemson, along with the other hopefuls, isn’t quite as large anymore.

Here’s a look at the rest of the teams and dark-horse contenders with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 6: