The weather phenomenon that caused the 'Beast from the East' five years ago is now considered "likely" to occur again this year, according to the Met Office. The 2018 snowstorm that sent the country into chaos was caused initially by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event.
The latest forecasts are now indicating that such an event is likely again in the coming weeks. While it is warned by forecasters that such an event will not certainly lead to a repeat of the 'Beast from the East', it is possible that cold and wintry weather will result, reports the Irish Mirror.
In 2018, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that drove the Arctic deluge that left the UK covered in deep snow. However, the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact.
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A new blog post from the Met Office says that a "major" SSW is now being considered likely, possibly bringing wintry weather to the UK at the back end of February. A weather alert concerning a potential SSW has also been issued.
The service said: "The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.
"A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK, with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent.
"However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs."
Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting, pinpointed late February and March as the point at which any impacts from the SSW would be felt over the UK.
He said: "There is now over 80 per cent chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March."
The Met Office's long-range forecasts for the UK are not making any bold predictions, but do indicate that there is a "low probability of some much colder weather developing" around the turn of the month. Otherwise, conditions are expected to be changeable but not out of the ordinary over the coming month.
The forecast from February 23 to March 9 says: "Generally changeable weather conditions with near or above average temperatures across the UK as a whole until late February. Bands of rain and strong winds are expected, especially in the northwest, with a risk of some wintry showers in the intervening colder brighter interludes between these frontal systems.
"Some of these frontal systems perhaps spreading further to the southeast, although much of the south and southeast will likely be relatively drier. Confidence in the forecast around the turn of the month becomes much lower, and whilst the more likely scenario is one of a continuation of similar conditions experienced through the latter half of February, there is a low probability of some much colder weather developing."
The Met Office five-day forecast for the South West
Today (Thursday):
A cloudy start to Thursday with occasional light rain and drizzle and murky conditions over higher ground. Slowly brightening up from the north, with some sunny spells during the afternoon. Light winds across the southwest. Maximum temperature 10 °C.
Tonight:
Staying dry overnight with variable cloud. Some clearer spells allowing for patchy fog and frost to form by Friday morning. Winds remaining light. Minimum temperature -2 °C.
Friday:
Fog patches clearing through the morning leaving another dry and fine day with sunny spells. Winds staying light, and a little milder than recent days. Maximum temperature 11 °C.
Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Becoming increasingly cloudy over the weekend with perhaps a few spots of rain and drizzle, but some brighter spells at times. Turning gradually milder with a reducing likelihood of frosts.
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