As national television analysts keep discussing whether Tua Tagovailoa can maximize six-time Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill, they keep going back to the same concern: Tagovailoa’s deep ball.
But of the concerns about Tagovailoa — and we’ll get to those in a minute — that shouldn’t be in the top two, if it’s a concern at all.
Anybody who watched Tagovailoa complete bomb after bomb at Alabama knows he can throw deep. Is he one of the best in the league at that? No. But is he at least adequate? Absolutely.
His trainer, Nick Hicks, posted video of Tagovailoa launching a pass 70 yards this offseason.
Last season, Tagovailoa completed 14 of 29 passes that traveled at least 20 air yards; that 48 percent accuracy ranked second in the league, narrowly behind Justin Herbert.
As a rookie, if Tagovailoa hadn’t seen his receivers drop three well-thrown deep balls, he would have completed 13 of 29 such passes (20 or more air yards), which is 45 percent.
So if you eliminate drops, Tagovailoa would have completed 46.5 percent of his deep throws in his first two seasons. That accuracy is top five in the league.
As NBC’s Cris Collinsworth told me recently: “Tua can throw the ball plenty far enough to bring in Tyreek Hill and all the speedsters he has on that team.”
Collinsworth said it drives him nuts when people talk about the need for quarterbacks to throw it as far as they possibly can, insisting that doesn’t often come into play during games.
Does Tagovailoa have the cannon of a Herbert? Of course not. The arm was a concern coming off the hip injury at Alabama, but it shouldn’t be one now because he has regained power in his base.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, a voice of reason on Tagovailoa, pointed out: “Tua can throw the ball past 40 yards, America. He can do that. It’s going to be OK.”
Tagovailoa didn’t throw deep more often last season not because he lacks the ability, but because coaches didn’t trust the offensive line to give him enough time for those routes to develop. And his midseason rib injury made it difficult to throw deep for a few weeks.
Yet the deep ball question keeps being asked.
“Can Tua push the ball down the field?” former NFL safety and ESPN analyst Ryan Clark said. “Does he have an arm big enough that when we are getting opportunities in play action that we can take the top off the defense?”
ESPN’s Tedy Bruschi said: “Tyreek is the type of receiver that makes reckless look calculated,” mentioning how Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes would throw the ball deep downfield and let Hill make a play.
“Can Tua be aggressive like that? Or is he so conservative with catch-and-run passes that that’s all he can do? You need to be reckless at times because when this guy is down there, he will win it the majority of times. He’s that good. I don’t know if Tua has that. I haven’t seen it at this level.”
But that was because of the shortcomings of the line and the conservative nature of the offense, not because of any evidence that Tagovailoa cannot throw deep.
Tagovailoa is tied with Cam Newton for the lowest percentage of deep passing attempts since 2020, at 7.1 percent. That’s behind only the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw deep just 6.2 percent of the time.
And with Mike McDaniel coming from San Francisco, “expect an offense based around short to intermediate throws,” NFL Network analyst Maurice Jones-Drew said. “They will take deep shots, but it’s not a big part of the offense.”
So if you’re going to worry about Tagovailoa, don’t worry about the deep ball. Instead, worry about these two things:
1). His durability. He’s had 10 different injuries the past five years. He missed four games last season, and he must prove he can stay healthy.
2). The decisions he makes sometimes in the face of a heavy pass rush. Tagovailoa had a 54.8 percent passer rating under pressure last season, with three touchdowns and seven interceptions. That was among the league’s worst.
He’s nimble avoiding sacks but too often throws regrettable passes in the face of a pass rush. If he can fix that and stay healthy, there’s no reason he cannot be a very good quarterback.
What Tagovailoa should do well is what he already does well but needs to do at an elite level: Deliver the ball quickly to receivers at precisely the time — and in the spot — that he needs to.
His performance in that area, how he plays in the face of a pass rush and his durability will be the biggest determinants of his success, not whether he can throw a ball 60 yards in an offense that doesn’t often call for that.
And Clark, despite the aforementioned question about Tagovailoa’s arm, offers this in Tagovailoa’s defense: “He’s more talented than Jimmy Garoppolo and surrounded by better people. He’s set up for success. If he’s healthy, he’s ready to roll.”
