As the New England Patriots sit at 3-3 through the first six weeks of the 2022 NFL season, they have a good problem they may not have expected.
Their rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe, who has two starts under his belt, has two wins and currently has best quarterback ratings’ in the league, 111.4, among quarterbacks with at least 20% of their offensive snaps. He isn’t just winning games by the skin of teeth either — he had a dominating victory (29-0) over the Detroit Lions and most recently, a 38-15 win against the Cleveland Browns.
While we will try and show you the differences between Mac Jones and the Patriots current starter, Head Coach Bill Bilichick goes into great detail when asked about the similarities between them, “I don’t know, they’re both right-handed.”
Thanks, Coach! These two quarterbacks do have some similarities, but in the end, their production is completely different.
Let’s dive into the film to see where Zappe has excelled and figure out if there is consideration for him to start when Mac Jones gets healthy!
Reading defenses
Zappe plays really well when asked to read defenses. He’s also taken a page out of Jones’ book when having to move, and/or hold safeties in the secondary.
In the clip below, the Patriots are up 10-6 in the third quarter over the Browns and sitting inside the red zone. The offense comes out in a 2×2 formation and motions to a 3×1 formation with a safety lined up and following tight end Hunter Henry.
The safety creeping up and playing man-to-man just gives the tight end a better opportunity at beating him deep when running a 7-in concept. This is where the two outside receivers are running dig routes to isolate the corner route over the top.
This is a hi-lo concept that also gives the quarterback an underneath option if the safety doesn’t step up.
Zappe recognizes the defenders’ movements pre-snap and lets the ball go before his receiver even opens up to look for the ball.
In the second clip, Zappe shows an ability to hold defenders with his eyes and then use his body to flip his hips and throw a deep pass to Jakobi Meyers outside the numbers.
This was one of the impressive plays by Zappe because he demonstrates a commitment to the post and poise while waiting for his receiver to make his break towards the sideline.
We cannot help but to be impressed by Zappe in his first few starts, but when attempting to decide if these are good enough showings to start over Jones, we have to see if Jones has displayed the same ability.
Well, he has!
NFL network’s Mike Giardi points out how Jones first directs his eyes to the left, and then flips his hips and throws a perfect ball to DeVante Parker on the outside.
Just a reminder that the "other" guy (Mac Jones) can also play. Holds safety with his eyes and that gives him a window for the go route to Parker. Nicely thrown ball. Safety can't get over the top in time. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/ci0MmgU17S
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) October 18, 2022
Although there is one area where Zappe does excel, and that would be evading defenders while still remaining in the pocket.
In the clip below, Zappe was able to spot his receiver open as he runs a deep over route. Since the linebacker is rushing back to defend, Zappe must wait for his receiver to pass him, in order to throw him open. Instead of leaving the pocket and running with the ball, he stays in a loaded throwing position, shuffling forward while maintaining proper mechanics.
This is not easy to do.
When watching Jones, he often looks to tuck and run, while also keeping his eyes down field to find the open man.
Even though it’s not as pretty, Jones still manages to get the job done.
Poise and placement
There is certainly something about Zappe that makes us all question if he is better than Jones. The way that he remains poise while going through his reads and then firing a rocket to the back of the end zone. It’s a thing of beauty, especially after learning that he is a fourth-round quarterback doing this in his first few starts.
Pre-snap, Zappe points out that linebacker Sione Takitaki (No. 44) is playing right on top of the line of scrimmage, so there won’t be any defenders in the back of the endzone. At the snap, Zappe immediately looks for the rub route on the right side of the field. Once he notices that it’s congested, he pulls his eyes to the middle and without hesitation, throws it on a rope putting it right on the belly of his receiver.
The way that Zappe can make changes pre-snap and also remain poised post-snap is impressive.
Zappe does this throughout the entire game. In the clip below, Zappe first looks to the left side of the field. Once he sees that the defender has outside shade, he moves to the right and places a perfect ball to Parker running a slant.
Now to once again address if Jones is showing the same poise and ability to go through his reads and place his passes.
The answer is yes, and he’s doing it at an even higher level!
Here is Jones, Week 3 against the Baltimore Ravens. At the bottom of the clip, the receiver is running an out-route, and one Jones sees that he is smothered, he skips the second level and puts a pass on Kendrick Bourne who is at the third level running over the middle.
Zappe or Jones?
When watching Zappe over the last two and a half games, it’s evident that he can read a defense when given time. When throwing off play action (per PFF) he is, 7-for-8, 165 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, 20.6 YPA and has a 158.3 passer rating.
On Sunday against the Browns, Zappe posted a 118.4 passer rating with 2.87 seconds (time to throw), which is a lot of time. Only six quarterbacks had more time in the pocket.
But when we ask ourselves why Zappe has such a higher passer rating than Jones, we must look factor in where Jones is throwing.
- Jones ADOT is 10.4
- Zappe ADOT is 6.7
On top of throwing further, Jones’ is also throwing a lot more. Jones was averaging 32.3 attempts per game and Zappe is averaging 23.3.
If we go back and look at the last game against the Browns, Zappe went 24-for-34, 70.59 comp %, for 309 yards, two touchdowns and a 118.4 passer rating.
In Jones’ rookie year when he played the Browns, he went, 19-for-23, 82.9 comp %, for 198 yards, three touchdowns and had a 142.0 passer rating.
There is nothing that Zappe has shown that Jones hasn’t. Zappe is doing a fine job as a fill-in, and Belichick could love his ‘playing it safe’ play style, which in the end leads to less turnovers, but Jones is the better quarterback.
Every rookie is good when there isn’t any film out there. Let’s just take a deep breath, enjoy the Zappe show, but it’s likely that when Jones is ready and healthy, he’ll be the starter.
