A winding cavalcade of more than 300 motorcycles accompanies three cars on a road in the deep interiors of Naoda Assembly segment in Baharampur.
In one of the cars is the five-time MP from the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, locally known as borda (elder brother).
As swathes of villagers line up to greet the cavalcade, Mr. Chowdhury, unlike other candidates, does not step out of his car. There is no waving at crowds, no garlands thrown at him, and no small welcome parties at village crossroads. This possibly shows the confidence that the 68-year old MP with a “Robinhood” image in this constituency has in his electorate.
This time, however, the walls of these largely Muslim-dominated villages are painted with slogans seeking votes for Yusuf Pathan, cricketer-turned politician and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) candidate for this seat. Can this queer the pitch for Mr. Chowdhury?
Congress support dipping
Though Mr. Chowdhury has had an iron grip over his constituency since 1999, his victory margin dipped from 3,56,277 in 2014 to just 79,694 in 2019.
The 2021 Assembly election results also illustrate that the Leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha may have a tough fight on his hands. In the 2016 State election, the Congress swept all the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat; in 2021, however, the BJP bagged the Baharampur Assembly seat, while the other six went to the TMC. The Mamata Banerjee-led party won 50.1% of the votes across these segments, followed by the BJP at 31.6%, and the Congress at 15.1%. It was a significant shift from 2016, when the Congress won these segments with a 45.9% vote share, followed far behind by the TMC at 24.9%.
Critical Muslim vote
Amid allegations and counter-allegations between the Congress and the Trinamool over who has been “making a deal” with the BJP, the TMC worker on the ground is very clear. “Our only aim is to cut Muslim votes from Adhir and ensure that he loses,” says local TMC leader Subodh Chandra Das, sitting at the party’s district office in Baharampur.
Baharampur has a Muslim population of more than 60%. With the BJP’s vote share in the 2021 Assembly election climbing up to 30.1%, this TMC strategy can spell trouble for the Congress leader, who now remains the sole face of his party in West Bengal.
Outsider tag
But it is unclear whether the predominantly Muslim electorate in rural areas will vote for Mr. Pathan, who is also seen as an outsider”, and whether his connection with the Kolkata Knight Riders IPL cricket team will suffice for his connect with the masses.
Trinamool leaders dismiss the “outsider” tag, saying that since this is a parliamentary election, it is national and not local concerns which will take centre stage.
A senior Trinamool Congress functionary in Kolkata, who did not wish to be named, said that the party had chosen Mr. Pathan as there were nearly half a dozen factions in the district of Murshidabad in which the constituency falls and choosing any of them would have meant giving a walkover to Mr. Chowdhury. Thus they were all taken into confidence and Mr. Pathan was brought in instead.
Bitterness between allies
The bitterness between the two parties stems from the failure of the two sides to arrive at a seat-sharing arrangement in the State despite being allies in the Opposition INDIA bloc. In fact, TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee has accused Mr. Chowdhury of being solely responsible for derailing the pact in the State.
Mr. Chowdhury maintains that the strong “anti-incumbency” sentiment against the Trinamool Congress will see him through.
Deficient development
In Baharampur, it is evident as one travels through the villages that in the absence of any national wave, voters are bothered only about local issues. Though the electors are unusually tight-lipped in the urban areas of this constituency, which has a history of poll-related violence, people in the villages are openly questioning Mr. Chowdhury’s “model” of development.
Nazrul Islam, who was formerly a Congress supporter and had also fought panchayat elections for the party, says: “If Adhir feels that putting up a street light in a village corner is development, then people are not satisfied any more. There are no jobs, no new industries. We have the maximum labour force migrating outside to work”.
“Adhir has always only thought of his own betterment,” he says, adding that Mr. Pathan is sure to get a fair share of Muslim votes.
If that fructifies, it is anyone’s guess whether the BJP’s Nirmal Kumar Saha, who is waiting in the wings, will squeeze through in this tough triangular fight, or whether the Congress will retain this last bastion in West Bengal. The constituency goes to polls on 13 May.
