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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Lifestyle
Vicky Jessop

BAFTA TV Awards 2024: who will win, and who should win?

The biggest night in the British TV calendar is almost here: that’s right, it’s the BAFTA TV Awards.

On Sunday, the cream of the UK’s acting talent will descend upon London’s Royal Festival Hall to celebrate the best TV of the past year – and competition is high.

Not only did 2023 see the end of some truly excellent TV shows – Top Boy, Happy Valley, Succession and The Crown among them – but it also welcomed sleeper hits like Beef and The Gold. And that’s before we get to all the true-crime: anybody for a few harrowing hours of The Sixth Commandment?

With some truly worthy nominees up for awards, here’s our lowdown of who the worthy winners are – and who will be walking away with the awards on the day.

Drama series

Kano in Top Boy (Ali Painter/Netflix)

The Gold (BBC One)

Happy Valley (BBC One)

Slow Horses (Apple TV+)

Top Boy (Netflix)

Should win: Top Boy

This London-based drama following the lives of drug dealers Sully and DuShane became a megahit after the cancelled Channel 4 show was resurrected by Drake for Netflix... and its final season had it all. There were betrayals, deaths, an appearance from Barry Keoghan and many, many nail-biting moments: it went out with a bang, but its legacy deserves to be celebrated by the academy.

Will win: Happy Valley

Speaking of final seasons, 2023 also saw the final outing of Sally Wainwright’s police show Happy Valley, and what a final show it was. In between the car chases and firecracker final scenes, the show’s complex, nuanced characters are wonderfully drawn and acted. It’s been a part of the national consciousness for so long (its three seasons were released over a decade) that it’s hard to see how BAFTA won’t honour it.

Limited drama

Éanna Hardwicke in The Sixth Commandment (BBC/Wild Mercury/Amanda Searle)

Best Interests (BBC One)

Demon 79, Black Mirror (Netflix)

The Long Shadow (ITV1)

The Sixth Commandment (BBC One)

Should win: The Sixth Commandment

When it came out, The Sixth Commandment rocketed to the top of the BBC’s ratings. And for good reason: its sinister, little-known real life story about a young man who seduces and kills two pensioners for their money were catnip for true crime fans, but it’s also balanced by a real sensitivity shown towards the real-life victims. Plus, the central performances from Éanna Hardwicke and Timothy Spall were extraordinary.

Will win: The Sixth Commandment

Despite stiff competition from fellow true-crime drama The Long Shadow, The Sixth Commandment should edge this race. Great performances, a heartbreaking, devastating true story this has what it takes to snag the award.

International

Brian Cox in Succession (AP)

The Bear (Disney+)

Beef (Netflix)

Class Act (Netflix)

The Last of Us (Sky Atlantic)

Love & Death (ITVX)

Succession (Sky Atlantic)

Should win: Succession

The International category abounds with top-tier TV shows this year: The Bear, The Last Of Us, the surprising sleeper hit that was Beef. And yet, it will surely be Succession’s turn in the spotlight. The show, whose final season aired last year, has been a tour de force of brilliance, from the witty one-liners to Logan Roy’s eventual, shocking death. It’s been getting all the awards, and well deserved, too.

Will win: Succession

No arguments here – who are the BAFTAs to deny Succession the chance to add to its clutch of trophies?

Leading actress

Sarah Lancashire as Sergeant Catherine Cawood in Happy Valley, (BBC/Lookout Point/Matt Squire/PA) (PA Media)

Anjana Vassan, Black Mirror (Netflix)

Anne Reid, The Sixth Commandment (BBC One)

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (Sky Atlantic)

Helena Bonham Carter, Nolly (ITVX)

Sarah Lancashire, Happy Valley (BBC One)

Sharon Horgan, Best Interests (BBC One)

Should win: Bella Ramsey

The role that elevated Bella Ramsey to the big leagues. Considering the brilliance of the apocalyptic video games on which it’s based, it’s still a welcome surprise that the TV adaptation turned out as well as it did – and that was mostly due to brilliant performances from Pedro Pascal as Joel and Ramsey as Ellie, the girl he’s charged with taking on a cross-country road trip through a ruined America. Ramsey as Ellie is by turns defiant, scared and vulnerable, but she’s always watchable.

Will win: Sarah Lancashire

The finale of Happy Valley feels a long way off now, but it still remains seared into the nation’s consciousness. The show was a phenomenon, and the tense showdown between Lancashire’s Sergeant Catherine Cawood and James Norton’s Tommy Lee Royce was a masterpiece of television. In the chaos, Lancashire’s performance keeps everything grounded – and the show’s huge success means she’ll doubtless be a shoo-in for the award.

Leading actor

Steve Coogan in The Reckoning (BBC/ITV Studios/Matt Squire)

Brian Cox, Succession (Sky Atlantic)

Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

Kane Robinson, Top Boy (Netflix)

Paapa Essiedu, The Lazarus Project (Sky Max)

Steve Coogan, The Reckoning (BBC One)

Timothy Spall, The Sixth Commandment (BBC One)

Should win: Steve Coogan

Will Steve Coogan be winning any awards for his role in The Reckoning? Given the subject matter, and the hushed way in which the show itself was rolled out, we’d say probably not. Nevertheless, he is extraordinarily good as the odious Jimmy Savile, faithfully replicating the disgraced comedian’s mannerisms, look and air of menace. A transformative performance.

Will win: Timothy Spall

Timothy Spall’s turn as ageing, vulnerable writer Peter Farquhar, who was seduced and killed by a younger neighbour, is by turns heartbreaking and terrifying to watch. He’s a veteran actor, and he brings all his experience to his role – he would be an equally worthy winner.

Female performance in a comedy programme

Bridget Christie in The Change (handout)

Bridget Christie, The Change (Channel 4)

Gbemisola Ikumelo, Black Ops (BBC One)

Máiréad Tyers, Extraordinary (Disney+)

Roisin Gallagher, The Lovers (Sky Atlantic)

Sofia Oxenham, Extraordinary (Disney+)

Taj Atwal, Hullraisers (Channel 4)

Should win: Roisin Gallagher

The Lovers debuted without much fanfare on Sky last year, but for those in the know, it’s one of the broadcaster’s most underrated gems. That’s partly down to Roisin Gallagher’s livewire performance as the prickly Janet, whose chalk-and-cheese relationship with Johnny Flynn’s news anchor Seamus forms the heart of the story. There’s laughter to be had here, and Gallagher brings surprising heart – and grit – to the role of Janet.

Will win: Bridget Christie

Bridget Christie’s midlife crisis comedy The Change won a legion of fans and has just been recommissioned for a second series. And Christie is great in the role of weary mum Linda, who leaves her family to start life in a camper van in the woods near the Forest of Dean, and her willingness to examine subjects like the menopause deserves applause.

Male performance in a comedy programme

David Tennant and Michael Sheen in Good Omens (Mark Mainz/Prime Video)

Adjani Salmon, Dreaming Whilst Black (BBC One)

David Tennant, Good Omens (Prime Video)

Hammed Animashaun, Black Ops (BBC One)

Jamie Demetriou, A Whole Lifetime with Jamie Demetriou (Netflix)

Joseph Gilgun, Brassic (Sky Max)

Mawaan Rizwan, Juice (BBC Three)

Should win: Adjani Salmon

Adjani Salmon both wrote and starred in Dreaming Whilst Black, and he aces both roles. He plays Kwabena, an aspiring filmmaker who’s trying to make it big in the industry – and Salmon nails both the comedy and the pathos, digging into Kwabena’s inner conflict as he tries to determine what success will cost him. It’s a tour de force performance, and one that heralds big things for him, as well as (ideally) a BAFTA.

Will win: David Tennant

It’s crazy to think that this is David Tennant’s first BAFTA nomination – and for something like the zany Terry Pratchett/Neil Gaiman comedy Good Omens, as opposed to his excellent work on literally everything else. And to be fair, he’s good as the furious demon Crowley – all spittle and hellfire. Is it a BAFTA-winning performance? Well, we predict he’ll be walking away with the gong on Sunday night.

Supporting actor

Logan Roy (Brian Cox) and Tom Wambsgans (Matthew Macfadyen) in the final season of Succession (Sky/ HBO)

Amit Shah, Happy Valley (BBC One)

Éanna Hardwicke, The Sixth Commandment (BBC One)

Harris Dickinson, A Murder At The End of The World (Disney+)

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (Apple TV+)

Matthew MacFadyen, Succession (Sky Atlantic)

Salim Daw, The Crown (Netflix)

Should win: Éanna Hardwicke

Given that his only other role of note was in Normal People, Irish actor Éanna Hardwicke was extraordinary in BBC series The Sixth Commandment. His brilliantly creepy portrayal of the murderer Ben Field was a masterclass in repressed rage and resentment (something he later replicated in Paramount+ series The Doll Factory). He’s a star on the rise, and rightly so.

Will win: Matthew MacFadyen

This awards season belongs to Succession – and if the Emmys were anything to go by, it’ll be clearing up at the BAFTAs too. In that spirit, Matthew MacFadyen’s turn as the brilliantly slimy Tom Wambsgans in the show’s final-ever season is almost certain to nab him an award. He didn’t quite steal the show, but as the series wore on he became an increasingly more important player, and MacFadyen’s performance was a masterclass.

Supporting actress

Jasmine Jobson as Jaq (Ali Painter/Netflix)

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)

Harriet Walter, Succession (Sky Atlantic)

Jasmine Jobson, Top Boy (Netflix)

Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)

Nico Parker, The Last of Us (Sky Atlantic)

Siobhan Finneran, Happy Valley (BBC One)

Should win: Jasmine Jobson

Jasmine Jobson was always one of the most underrated parts of Top Boy: her spiky, conflicted drug dealer Jaq could be just as vicious as Sully, but also had a soft side that revealed itself every now and again. In the show’s final season, there were ups and downs but ultimately a satisfying conclusion for Jaq. And Jobson sells it utterly: she’s magnetic.

Will win: Elizabeth Debicki

The juggernaut final season of The Crown was greeted with fairly mixed reviews upon its release, but there’s no denying the sheer star power that the show amassed to play its leading characters. Top of the list is Elizabeth Debicki, whose haunted Diana took centre stage in the show’s first half, in the episodes before her death. And while the show wasn’t at its peak, Debicki made for a mesmeric Diana throughout.

Scripted comedy

Dylan Llewellyn in Big Boys (Channel 4)

Big Boys (Channel 4)

Dreaming Whilst Black (BBC One)

Extraordinary (Disney+)

Such Brave Girls (BBC Three)

Should win: Dreaming Whilst Black

They don’t get bolder or more experimental than Dreaming Whilst Black. The show, which started life as a webcast, is a look at the life of aspiring filmmaker Kwabena – but its dreamy tone, excruciating humour and the way it bounces from reality to the imagined world inside Kwabena’s head lend the whole show a frankly surreal air. It’s unlike anything you’ll have seen before, and yet, its low-key launch (first on BBC Three, then moving to BBC One) might hamper its chances.

Will Win: Big Boys

This would also be a more-than-worthy winner. Jack Rooke’s alternately charming and devastating Big Boys is already two seasons in. Hasn’t time flown? Rooke’s semi-autobiographical series about a newly-out Jack (Dylan Llewellyn) who sets out to find himself at university benefits from stellar performances – both from Llewelyn and his on-screen best friend Danny (Jon Pointing) – and an impressive gag rate, most of which land. Pointing’s break-out showing as Danny in particular has helped elevate the show’s profile: expect to see it reaping the rewards.

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