On the face of it, the election of Srettha Thavisin, a property tycoon from the Pheu Thai party, as Thailand’s Prime Minister marks a shift towards civilian governance from almost a decade of military rule. But that is not the full story. Move Forward, the party that won the May parliamentary election, was prevented from forming the government by the military-royalist nexus because of its progressive and anti-establishment views, while Pheu Thai, the second largest party, was given a chance after it agreed to form a coalition with military-aligned parties. Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Move Forward, had led a spirited campaign, offering a deal to voters that included ensuring economic justice, keeping the military in check and amending the controversial lèse-majesté law that shields the monarchy from public criticism. Mr. Pita, whose coalition had a clear majority in the elected lower House of Parliament, had tried to form the government twice, but was blocked by the military-appointed Senators. He was later barred from Parliament over allegations of hiding details of his shares in a now defunct media company. The constitutional court is hearing a petition against Move Forward’s promise to amend the lèse-majesté law, which could lead to its dissolution.
Thailand has had phases of democratic experiments but the military has always maintained an outsized influence. Over the past century, the Thai military has carried out over a dozen coups, with all being endorsed by the monarchy. The military’s stranglehold has also produced populist resistance off and on. The Pheu Thai party itself is the third incarnation of the pro-democracy movement founded by Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted from power in 2006. Prior to the May elections, Pheu Thai had vowed to keep the military out of politics, only to walk back on its promises. It now says that it will not support amending the lèse-majesté law, citing a lack of consensus. Incidentally, Mr. Thaksin, who was sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison for “corruption” and “misuse of power”, returned after 15 years of exile on the day Parliament elected Mr. Srettha as Prime Minister. Mr. Thaksin was arrested on arrival, but his return raises questions on whether the Pheu Thai might cut a deal with the military to ensure his safety (and a probable royal pardon) in exchange for not harming the interests of the establishment. Whatever Thai politicians might call it, this is not a democratic transition. The military has moved to backseat driving, keeping its interests intact and flouting the spirit of the election results. Mr. Srettha could find it hard to tackle Thailand’s myriad challenges, that include reviving a sluggish economy and advancing democratic rights, when his government is remote-controlled by the establishment.
