The Congress in Kerala is facing what is perhaps its worst political crisis in recent times. The party is beset with organisational challenges and appears to lack a strategy to confront the ruling CPI(M)-led coalition in the State. It is heavily dependent on the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), its major partner in the United Democratic Front (UDF), for its electoral fortunes in north Kerala. Moreover the Congress leadership has been struggling to take a firm stand on a Uniform Civil Code (UCC). The party, which was not invited by the CPI(M) to participate in a seminar against the UCC in Kozhikode, waited anxiously for the decision of the IUML, which was invited. The IUML, which is being wooed by the CPI(M), finally decided not to participate.
There was a glimmer of hope when the Congress Central leadership replaced both the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly and the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president shortly after the party’s humiliating defeat in the 2021 Assembly polls. However, the party is back to square one now. Internal conflicts have only been intensifying despite the party not being in power.
In June, the government ordered a preliminary probe against Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan for allegedly mobilising funds from abroad for a rehabilitation project, while the Enforcement Directorate initiated a preliminary investigation into alleged violations of the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act. Later that month, the police arrested KPCC president K. Sudhakaran in connection with a cheating case involving Monson Mavunkal, who is an accused in a fake antiquities case. Recently, the party was in a fix when MP Hibi Eden proposed that Kerala’s capital be relocated from Thiruvananthapuram to his constituency, Ernakulam, which is centrally located. This provided ammunition to the CPI(M) to attack the Congress. It promptly began a campaign in Thiruvananthapuram saying that the Congress wanted the capital city relocated.
The Congress leadership seems to have disregarded the valuable lessons of its loss in the Assembly polls. Ramesh Chennithala, the former Leader of the Opposition, who could have become the Chief Minister had the UDF captured power, now finds himself fighting a solitary battle. He had intermittently raised allegations of corruption against the previous Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, but these attempts failed to translate into votes. One crucial reason for this was the fact even those within the Congress party don’t trust him. Mr. Chennithala’s inability to prevent the Kerala Congress (Mani) or KC(M) from leaving the coalition and joining the LDF led to a severe blow to the UDF’s performance in the three-tier local body polls in 2020.
As it appeased the IUML in seat-sharing, the Congress leadership saw its traditional votes from Christian and Hindu communities eroding. These voters shifted allegiance to the CPI (M) and to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2021 Assembly polls. Political commentators say the Congress is continuing to tread the same path now and is further alienating the Nair and Thiyya/Ezhava communities.
At the same time, the Congress has been unable to nurture young leaders from the Muslim or Christian communities. On the other hand, the CPI(M) has introduced second-rung leaders from all communities, ensuring its sustained influence.
The Congress leadership has also failed to capitalise on the appeal of prominent figures like Shashi Tharoor who struck a chord with the middle classes and young generation. It has neither engaged with the dissatisfied constituents within the Left nor made any concerted efforts to facilitate the reintegration of the KC(M) into the UDF fold.
Considering the changed circumstances since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in which the UDF won 19 out of 20 seats, it is crucial for the Congress to navigate the shifting political dynamics in Kerala. The UDF’s coalition partners have already expressed their displeasure about the Congress’ factionalism. It is important that Congress leaders address internal issues and put up a show of unity in order to stay relevant for the Lok Sabha polls next year. Only by speaking about the CPI(M)’s game plan — specifically the party’s change of stance on the UCC since the 1980s — will the Congress stand a better chance at the hustings.
