Nearly a week after his contract extension was agreed upon, opinions continue to flow in about quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s five-year, $275 million deal with the Jaguars.
Bleacher Report analyst Brad Gagnon is the latest from a major outlet to weigh in. It’s fair to suggest he’s not a big fan of the deal.
The first of his 10 listed “recent blockbuster” deals NFL teams are “likely to regret,” Gagnon wrote Wednesday that Jacksonville took a risk paying Lawrence considering the quarterback’s performance in 2023 and Gagnon’s belief that the Jaguars don’t possess a roster capable of contending.
Why they gave it to him: Lawrence was entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars obviously believe in him, and they’d prefer to save cap space in the short term with the long-term flexibility associated with a new contract.
Why they might regret it: They aren’t exactly positioned to win in the short term anyway. They still have yet to finish above 9-8 with Lawrence, who was the league’s 21st-highest-rated passer during a disappointing third pro season in 2023. There’s a good chance that the 2021 No. 1 overall pick never lives up to his draft hype.
While Gagnon’s brief analysis of Lawrence’s play makes note of his underwhelming, 88.5 passer rating from last season, it doesn’t mention his 95.2 passer rating from 2022, which ranked No. 9 in the NFL. His 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns passing respectively ranked No. 9 and No. 10 in the league that year.
The Jaguars might have gone 9-8 that season, as Gagnon noted, but he omitted the team’s AFC Divisional round appearance in the playoffs after ripping off six consecutive victories between Week 14 and the Wild Card round.
Jacksonville also got off to an 8-3 start in 2023 with Lawrence completing 67.9% of his passes for 3,004 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions over his first 12 games, posting a 100+ point passer rating in seven of those contests.
However, Lawrence suffered a high-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter of Week 13 against Cincinnati. The Jaguars went on to lose to the Bengals, 34-31, kicking off a 1-5 slide to end the season.
Lawrence played through the hurt the next week and endured two more, a Week 15 concussion and a Week 16 sprained A/C joint in his throwing shoulder, over the Jaguars’ final five matchups.
He missed one game, Week 17 against Carolina, and completed 60% of his passes for 1,012 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in the four bouts he appeared in.
Behind Lawrence’s contract on Gagnon’s list were:
- QB Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180 million contract with Atlanta
- EDGE Rashan Gary’s four-year, $96 million contract with Green Bay
- QB Justin Herbert’s five-year, $262.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Chargers
- QB Jalen Hurts’ five-year, $255 million contract with Philadelphia
- QB Lamar Jackson’s five-year, $260 million contract with Baltimore
- QB Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract with the New York Giants
- DL Justin Madubuike’s four-year, $98 million contract with Baltimore
- QB Aaron Rodgers’ three-year, $112.5 million contract with the New York Jets
- DL Christian Wilkins’ four-year, $110 million contract with Las Vegas
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