When Aussie farmers begged consumers to eat more avocados, they stepped up and smashed it, but there are fears that won't be enough to absorb the next "avolanche".
Bracing for another bumper crop in 2023, the industry is ramping up its efforts to find new export markets amid a perfect storm of increased production and good seasons.
While it means consumers can expect good prices in the short term, with nearly half the trees planted in Australia yet to even fruit some growers are worried about their long-term viability.
Hard years keep coming
Industry representative body Avocados Australia works with growers to improve profitability, market access, research and development.
Chief executive John Tyas said in 2022 growers produced 122,000 tonnes of fruit, up from 80,000 tonnes in 2021, with expectations production will reach 170,000 tonnes by 2026.
He said the surge of fruit was not a one-off, and more tough years were ahead.
"We're going through a massive growth phase and obviously the industry is going through some fairly serious growing pains," he said.
"A 50 per cent increase in 12 months — that's why it's been such a struggle to suddenly move such a large increase in volume into fairly limited markets.
"We've really only got three major export markets and the domestic market."
Almost 80 per cent of Australian households buy avocados, with consumption rising last year to almost 5 kilograms per person per year.
But Mr Tyas said that was driven by prices, which had dropped from about $40 a tray to $17.
"Consumers were getting fruit for about $1 a piece … but Australian growers can't supply at that price, it's just unsustainable long term," he said.
"Although we're one of the largest consumers of avocados in the world, we do see that there's still room to grow domestically."
Mr Tyas said exports into Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong tripled in 2022, but the big challenge would be overcoming quarantine protocols to send fruit to new markets.
"Things are looking at the moment like we've got quite a big crop coming on for for next year," he said.
"We're expecting to really ramp up our exports into Japan … we need to tackle every market and exploit every market as much as we possibly can."
The high yield catch-22
Australia hits its peak avocado production between April and December, and across the country there are about 4 million avocado trees planted, up from 1.5 million a decade ago.
For years, the industry has been chasing higher yields, trying to produce enough high-quality fruit to deliver consistent supply that was critical to profitability.
In regions such as Childers, south of Bundaberg in Queensland, orchards have boomed as large corporate growers expanded.
But for small operators like Tom and Donna Duncan, who first planted in the 1970s, keeping pace has become unsustainable.
"We're at the moment winding down, our orchard is getting too small to be commercial," Mr Duncan said.
"If I make $1 a tray I make nothing. If they make $1 a tray they make a million dollars, that's just the economics of it."
He said the recent flowering was an early sign the 2023 season would be just as tough.
"If they think they had problems last year … there's going to be an enormous amount of fruit this year," he said.
Mr Tyas said Avocados Australia had recently recruited a new staff member to push ahead on market access.
"Some growers may decide to leave the industry if they don't think that they can be globally competitive," he said.
"But the majority of the industry is still very committed and still very confident in our in a really great future."
He acknowledged the industry was under pressure.
"But I think there's there's light at the end of the tunnel, the key is being globally competitive," he said.
"It's just that at the moment, it's a bit of a bottleneck with the fruit coming on now."
