Average person will be 40% poorer if world warms by 4C, new research shows

Researchers say the underestimation of extreme weather events on the global economy has profound implications for climate policy. Photograph: Jessica Hromas/The Guardian

Economic models have systematically underestimated how global heating will affect people’s wealth, according to a new study that finds 4C warming will make the average person 40% poorer – an almost four-fold increase on some estimates.

The study by Australian scientists suggests average per person GDP across the globe will be reduced by 16% even if warming is kept to 2C above pre-industrial levels. This is a much greater reduction than previous estimates, which found the reduction would be 1.4%.