Early evening summary
Rachel Reeves has announced £40bn of tax rises on businesses and the rich as Labour’s first budget in 14 years sought to reverse more than a decade of decline in Britain’s public services. As Richard Partington and Jessica Elgot report, after months of speculation since the party’s general election landslide victory, the chancellor revealed a sweeping package of tax increases she said would be vital to balance the books and turn the page on austerity. “The only way to improve living standards, and the only way to drive economic growth is to invest, invest, invest,” Reeves said. “There are no shortcuts, and to deliver that investment, we must restore economic stability and turn the page on the last 14 years.” At its heart was an increase in national insurance contributions (Nics) paid by employers – worth £25bn by the end of this parliament – alongside billions of pounds in increases from changes to capital gains tax, inheritance tax, VAT on private schools and the non-dom tax regime. The chancellor said the budget was a fulfilment of a promise to shield working people from tax rises, adding that they would “not see higher taxes in their payslips as a result of the choices that I am making today”. And here is Larry Elliott’s analysis.
And here is a summary of the main measures in the budget.
Pimco: No reason to question UK's fiscal credibility
Bond trading giant Pimco have given the UK something of a vote of confidence tonight, after the budget.
Peder Beck-Friis, economist at Pimco, says the UK’s fiscal credibility is intact, and that he continues to find British debt attractive.
Beck-Friis also points out that while UK bond prices fell today, they did slightly better than German government debt, saying:
There are no reasons for us to question the fiscal credibility in the UK. The government intends to bring the primary deficit into a large surplus, for the first time since the early 2000s. While debt — by the conventional definition — may not fall in coming years, it is unlikely to rise dramatically either.
It was a volatile day for gilt yields, which ended the day a few basis points higher. Technical factors likely exaggerated the volatility. While gilt yields ended the day higher, they outperformed German Bunds.
We continue to like gilts. We expect the market to over time shift its attention away from fiscal to the underlying macro drivers, including softening inflation. Tight fiscal policy should weigh on growth and inflation ahead — and over time, we expect the market to price in a lower terminal rate for the Bank of England’s cutting cycle.