The Australian red meat industry has recorded a 78% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions since 2005 due to reduced rates of land clearing and increased forest regrowth, a report commissioned by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has found.
The report, released on Thursday, found that net greenhouse gas emissions from the red meat industry were equivalent to 31m tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2021.
But the emissions data was derived from the Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, which analysis suggests may be significantly underreporting land clearing in Queensland, making any claims based on that data “not reliable”.
The report said high rainfall in 2020-21 resulted in a large increase in carbon sequestration due to increased vegetation growth on land managed by the red meat sector, an area equivalent to about half of Australia’s landmass.
This drove a 40% recorded decrease in industry-wide emissions on the previous year. However, the report said the carbon sequestration estimates were “associated with high levels of uncertainty”.
MLA in 2017 announced the industry’s goal to reach net zero emissions by 2030. Climate and agricultural scientists have said the target is unachievable.
Julia Waite, the MLA’s carbon neutral 2030 project manager, said lower rates of land clearing and greater volumes of regrowth had offset the sector’s direct emissions, about 80% of which is methane released by cattle burps and manure. Those emissions fluctuate with the recorded size of Australia’s cattle herd and have remained relatively stable since 2005.
“Given the variability of the Australian climate, we anticipate sequestration volumes will retract when conditions trend back towards drier El Niño,” she said in a statement on Thursday.
Cattle population data in the report, which put the herd size at 23.3 million in 2021, is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics farm surveys. The ABS’s head of agriculture statistics, Rob Walter, told Guardian Australia in March that these surveys were never designed to record Australia’s cattle population and are “clearly a lower estimate than the actual number of cattle”. One study found we may be undereporting the number of cattle by 10 million.
Waite said the annual emissions report by MLA was informed by the best available science and nationally maintained data.
Earlier, Waite told Guardian Australia that emissions reductions from carbon sequestration in vegetation “has a shelf life” because the rate of sequestration declines as forest regrowth reaches maturity. She also said net zero by 2030 “isn’t a static target”.
“To maintain an enduring net zero emissions position will require percentage reductions in direct emissions of raising livestock and energy, which will also reduce over-reliance on sequestration,” Waite said.
Since 2017, MLA has co-invested $152m into research and development largely focused on nascent technologies such as methane-reducing feed additives. MLA previously said more than $180m had been invested, but has since revised the figure.
Greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the red meat industry, including those released by fertiliser production, supplementary feed and transportation were not included in the report. It said this was due to “data and methodological limitations” but that they could possibly be included in future.
