As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. Past performance does not guarantee future success. One of the great appeals of sports: its stubborn unwillingness to abide any obvious logic.
That disclaimer out of the way … how do you pick against Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open? He is the top seed. He won the previous major. And, oh yeah, he has won this event 10 times, including each time he has entered since 2018. (Don’t look now but he has won more Aussie Opens than Serena Williams and Roger Federer have won Wimbledons; only four fewer than Rafael Nadal has won at Roland Garros.)
But there are 127 other players in the draw and 127 matches to be played. And Djokovic was bothered by a wrist injury in his previous match. And he is 36, a crepuscular age for most athletes. And sports are unscripted. So here is a broader picture.