The Socceroos' hopes of automatic qualification for November's World Cup in Qatar have been flattened after an uninspiring 2-0 loss to Japan in Sydney on Thursday night.
While a win against a nation it had not defeated since 2009 seemed unlikely in the first instance, the disastrous build-up to Australia's penultimate Asian qualifier made a win almost out of the realms of reality.
Indeed, the shambolic nature of the past fortnight – with the squad affected by injuries, illnesses, COVID-19 protocols, and other unavailabilities – was clearly evident on the pitch from the opening whistle.
Australia's rag-tag group of players lacked chemistry across the park and were regularly overwhelmed by Japan's more organised and cohesive side.
Spear-headed by the dazzling Liverpool forward Takumi Minamino, Japan easily dominated the game on and off the ball, pressing collectively to retrieve possession and finding multiple avenues towards goal.
Midfield was a particular weakness for Australia, with the untested duo of Connor Metcalfe and Gianni Stensness paired together in deep-lying midfield positions.
They were regularly overwhelmed by Japan's more lively central players, while creative attacking player Ajdin Hrustic was positioned as a second wide forward to pair with Mitchell Duke and became Australia's predictable outlet.
Melbourne City striker Jamie Maclaren was left on the bench until the game's dying stages, despite the fact he's only available for this match before leaving camp to attend his wedding, while former Uruguay youth international Bruno Fornaroli was brought on in the final 20 minutes but did little with his debut for his adopted country.
Australia had a disallowed goal in the first half after a Hrustic corner was bundled over the line by a Japan defender, only to be called back after the referee determined there was a foul on Japan's goalkeeper in the build-up.
Despite holding out Japan for the first half, Australia was aided by the crossbar twice, as well as heroics from goalkeeper and captain Mat Ryan who made a number of crucial saves.
And while Minamino had the greatest number of chances, it was Japan substitute Kaoru Mitamo whose second-half brace lifted the visitors to the win it needed to ease through to Qatar through two slicing moves down either side of the field that exposed Australia's fatigued defenders.
The result means Australia has won only one of its last six games, a 4-0 victory over Vietnam.
Australia's final group game against Saudi Arabia on March 29 is now largely redundant as the team prepare to go down the intercontinental play-off route, the first step of which will be against the third-placed team from the other Asian group, followed by a knock-out game against a South American side.
Look back at how the action unfolded in our blog.
Live updates
By Samantha L
Full-time: Australia 0 - 2 Japan
And just like that, the Socceroos are into the intercontinental play-offs after a lifeless performance against a solid Japanese side.
This game reflected all the issues the past two weeks - indeed, the past two years - has raised for Australia, particularly in terms of squad depth, creativity, and consistent goal-scoring.
The post-match discourse will likely and deservedly be harsh. Arnold made a number of odd player selections from his starting XI through to his substitutions, while his formation was easily stifled by a more organised, higher-energy Japan.
While Takumi Minamino had Japan's best chances, it was electric substitute Kaoru Mitamo, whose brace lifted Japan into automatic qualification for Qatar.
Australia's final game on March 29 will be against group leaders Saudi Arabia, with the team having little more to play for than pride.
After that, they'll likely face the United Arab Emirates in the first of the knock-out phases of the intercontinental play-off.
Get past them and the Socceroos will come up against a South American side (which, at the time of writing, could be one of Ecuador, Uruguay, Peru, Chile, or Colombia). Australia haven't defeated a South American team in over a decade.
Whatever happens from here, you have to hope these kinds of moments aren't missed as an opportunity to seriously ask questions of the Socceroos set-up, as well as the various pathways that lead to it.
Thank you for following along. It wasn't the result Australia wanted, but it may be the one we need.
By Samantha L
90+4' GOAL JAPAN!
A Mitoma masterclass: the sub cuts inside from the left wing, slaloms through four Australian players, and fizzes a shot beneath Mat Ryan's desperate arm.
The ball trickles into the net as fans trickle out of the stadium.
2-0.
By Samantha L
90' Australia substitute
Late call-up Ben Folami earns his first cap for Australia in pretty dire circumstances.
By Samantha L
88' GOAL JAPAN!
Just when you thought the game was fizzing out, Japan finally get the goal they've deserved for most of this game.
A mirror-image move to their last major chance, with winger Yamane making a slicing run down to the by-line and cutting back towards the penalty spot for substitute Mitoma to slam home largely unchallenged.
1-0.
By Samantha L
SokkahTwitter is reli***ng Socceroos struggle haha. It really feels like ***an need the win and we are ok with a draw with the deep line defending.
It's a shame we see youngsters like Volpato choosing to play for Italy over Australia. Talent gone to waste for another nation to pickup.
-Chippy
This is my fear: that Australian football fans have simply become apathetic towards the Socceroos. That we are okay with mediocrity. That kind of energy no doubt feeds into the players themselves and results in performances like the one we've seen tonight: passionless, disjointed, lacking identity and belief.
There's a bigger conversation to be had about what the Socceroos represent now, how emerging players identify with Australian identity and history, and why it is we seem to be losing bright talents to clubs and nations elsewhere.
Every crisis is an opportunity, after all. If Australia do end up bombing out of World Cup qualification altogether, it'll be the moment for us all to talk about these more existential questions and figuring out who we want to be moving forward.
By Samantha L
83' Maclaren is on!
Finally! He replaces Martin Boyle, with Hrustic pushed out to a wide position once again.
By Samantha L
80' CHANCE JAPAN!
Finally, Japan come to life. A delightful one-two slices through Australia's back line and fizzed square across the six-yard line to Minamino, who strikes...
...but Trent Sainsbury THROWS himself across the goal-line and deflects the shot away!
Game-saving moment, that.
By Samantha L
73' More of an ebb than a flow
Neither side have done much in the past ten-minute period with most of the play happening in the central third between the boxes. Japan are starting to send more numbers forward to press Australia's flustered back line, and Australia are still trying to just get their foot on the ball and move forward... somehow.
Probably not the game the 41,852 fans at Stadium Australia expected.
By Samantha L
67' Substitutions Australia!
The crowd begins to swell as vision of Bruno Fornaroli and Marco Tilio whip off their warm-up gear and have a chat with the coaching staff.
Fornaroli's inclusion in this squad has been a major topic heading into this match. The 34-year-old Uraguay-born striker recently became an Australian citizen after arriving here in 2015. Even though he represented Uruguay at under-17 level, changes to FIFA's eligibility rules meant he was able to switch allegiances to any country he was eligible for. He's been one of the A-League Men's best strikers, starring for both Melbourne City and Perth Glory, including winning the Golden Boot award in his first season in 2015-16.
But the fact Australia have had to rely on a player like Fornaroli - no matter his quality - points to the serious problem we've got in our development pathways.
A-League Men clubs relying on imports in creative and striker positions doesn't help, either, as there are fewer and fewer opportunities for emerging youngsters to gain serious minutes and get on national team radars.
Duke comes off for Fornaroli's debut, while Awer Mabil is replaced by the spritely young City winger Tilio.
By Samantha L
An hour down
And not much seems to have changed on Australia's end. Their midfield hasn't been opened up quite as many times, largely thanks to Jeggo's fresh legs, but they're still struggling to maintain possession and progress the ball in any serious or thoughtful way.
Japan will be happy with a jammy draw; they'll be assured automatic qualification so long as they get a point from the underwhelming Vietnam in their final match.
But Australia need three points tonight. No more, no less.
Every minute that passes, you feel that it's further and further from reach...
By Samantha L
Where is Jamie Maclaren?
He's by far the most in-form centre-forward in the current squad, and yet Melbourne City striker Jamie Maclaren remains on the bench.
It's an odd decision by Arnold, especially considering this is the only game Maclaren is able to play: he'll miss the final match against Saudi Arabia because he'll be attending his own wedding.
With Mitch Duke not offering much up front, and the only two natural strikers uncapped, it's likely to be a big talking-point post-match...
By Samantha L
When Australia's teams fail, Soccer Twitter wins
You can always count on #SokkahTwitter to deliver in moments of existential crisis for our national teams.
ABC's very own Evan Morgan Grahame has been posting up a storm, including this piece of Photoshop brilliance celebrating Australia's arguable Player of the Match so far: the woodwork.
By Samantha L
53' Yellow card Australia
Gianni Stensness meanders on the ball for too long and it's nipped off him by a Japanese midfielder, who the Socceroo then proceeds to rip backwards via his jersey.
Not a super inspiring opening to this half for Australia so far...
By Samantha L
47' CHANCE AUS!
Mitch Duke with a nice knock-down for Ajdin Hrustic, who's been given a bit more license to come central now, and he unleashes a lovely strike that just skims wide!
By Samantha L
Australia have made a change
Connor Metcalfe has been pulled at the break and replaced by James Jeggo in midfield; a more attack-minded central player who could surely help provide some more momentum going forward.
By Samantha L
Come on Australia. You need this!
-Paul
We really do, Paul. We really do.
Anything but a win tonight and Australia are down the intercontinental knock-out route, which will see us face the third-placed team in the other Asian group (likely the United Arab Emirates), and then if we progress past them, we'll come up against a South American side...
...a side from a confederation we haven't beaten since 2010.
So this is where it needs to happen. In these next 45 minutes.
By Samantha L
Socceroos seem to share with Matildas that unfortunate trait known as; "defence, what for defence?", ugh, wobbly as. Nevertheless, some graceful attacking (except flattening the opposing goalkeeper is not, repeat not fa***onable play) work. Reasons to be cheerful...
-Stop Moving The Robot
Enjoying the optimism of SMTR.
As the rain starts to pelt down a little harder and the vibe in the media box is close to nihilistic, it's refreshing to see a bit of positivity on the blog. No matter how fleeting it might be.
By Samantha L
For every chance we get ***an have ***ut 4.
I'm not really sure if Grant is the best right back for us. He isn't making the overlap runs he usually makes with Sydney FC. Just seems out of his depth with ***an targeting the right back.
Metcalfe getting exposed with average touches in the midfield don't help Socceroos when ***an have a lethal counter attack.
Hrustic has been the player of the half for us, it is just sad to see little to no support when he is in the attacking third.
-Chippy
Agree with all of this. Hrustic has been Australia's best attacking outlet, but he's not usually used as a wide second forward - he has the technical ability and the passing vision to play more central.
And even when we do try to counter-attack, we've become so predictable that Japan are able to easily clean it up and then counter-attack better than us.
Let's see what Arnie has up his sleeve...
By Samantha L
Half-time: Australia 0 - 0 Japan
Honestly, it's pretty miraculous the Socceroos haven't gone into the break at least a couple of goals down.
As expected, Takumi Minamino has been Japan's deadliest forward, with five big chances - two of which came off the crossbar.
You could see the Aussies start to lose energy and belief towards the end of that half as they realised the only lightly-sketched plans they seemed to have were leading nowhere.
Awer Mabil in particular faded after a bright start, while neither of Australia's full-backs have had opportunities to bomb forward in the way they've become known for.
But the problem has been largely in midfield, with Arnold's insistence on a double-pivot with Metcalfe and Stensness leading to several turn-overs and gaping spaces for Japan to exploit.
What does Arnold need to do at half-time to try and claw this game back into Australia's control (if they ever had it)? Who can he call on? Will we actually see Bruno Fornaroli brought on to somehow create something from nothing?
