Australia’s employers went on a late-year hiring binge in November, adding an extra 2,000 people per day even in a month that included a Reserve Bank interest rate rise.
The economy added 61,500 jobs last month, all but 4,500 of them full-time ones, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. Economists had forecast the economy would swell their workforces by 11,500 jobs.
The jobless rate, though, ticked higher to 3.9%, the most since April 2022, from a revised 3.8% in October. That was higher than the 3.8% rate economists had tipped.
Jobless rate climbs to 3.9% in November (highest since April 2022) but main story is the surge in new hires. The economy added 63,500 jobs, most of the full-time, so the labour market remains pretty tight. pic.twitter.com/bLJcQPoJZd
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) December 14, 2023
The unemployment rate rose even with so many hirings because more people were looking for work.
“The combination of strong growth in both employment and unemployment in November saw the employment-to-population ratio return to a record high of 64.6% and the participation rate reach a new high of 67.2%,” Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said.
The jobs figures are the last major economic release before Christmas, and should provide some cheer for treasurer Jim Chalmers. More people in work should increase tax revenue while reducing social payments.
According to the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook eport released yesterday, treasury expects the jobless rate to be about 4.25% by June next year. A year later, it should rise to 4.5% – still low by the record of most of the past five decades.
The strong increase in jobs, though, will likely nudge higher the odds that the Reserve Bank may hoist interest rates again to ensure inflation keeps on its downward tilt. Prior to the jobs figures, markets were rating the chance of a rate rise when the RBA next meets in February at less than 10%, according to the ASX’s rate tracker.
The Australian dollar rose from about 66.65 US cents to 66.85 US cents in the immediate wake of the data release. Stocks, though, barely budged, holding on to their gains for the day of about 1.5%.
While employment growth continued into November 2023, rising by 0.4%, monthly hours worked rose by less than 0.1%, showing not all facets of the labour market remain tight.
“The recent slowdown in hours worked over the past six months continued into November, with the total number of hours worked now around where it had been back in May,” Jarvis said. “However, this follows very strong growth during late 2022 and early 2023.”
Across the states, NSW had the lowest unemployment rate at 3.4%, unchanged from October’s level, on a seasonally adjusted level. Western Australia’s jobless rate eased slightly to 3.7%, while Tasmania’s dropped 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%.
Victoria’s unemployment rates rose from 3.8% to 4%, Queensland’s edged higher to 4.3%, while the ACT’s improved to 3.6% from 3.9% in the previous month. South Australia’s jobless rate rose from 3.6% to 3.9%.
