The ease and speed with which Australia, along with Britain and Canada, fell in behind Donald Trump’s attack on Iran was startling. For a country that is constantly trumpeting the essentiality of the international rules-based order in preserving global peace and stability, Australia is shameless in its ability to slide into the American slipstream.
And to hide behind Iran’s alleged possession of nuclear weapons – or at least its ability to produce them – as justification for the attacks and the obliteration of Iran’s governing leadership, portrays us as gullible, duplicitous or both. Trump claimed that Iran’s ability to construct nuclear weapons was destroyed last June. Truth or lie? It cannot be both. The claim that Iran had the ability to do so until last weekend was either true or false. It could not be both. So what exactly was the case for yet another unprovoked and illegal attack on Iran?
The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, whose visit to Australia begins today, also fell conveniently into line, as did the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer. Employing the same trope as Albanese, Carney said: “Canada’s position remains clear: the Islamic Republic of Iran is the principal source of instability and terror throughout the Middle East, has one of the world’s worst human rights records and must never be allowed to obtain or develop nuclear weapons.” For a national leader who called out Trump’s bluster and bullying just a few weeks ago in Davos, Carney’s comments were dismal.
Is Trump playing Australia, and the UK and Canada for that matter, as patsies, confident in the judgment that all three will go along with his decisions whatever they are? If he is, Australia, the UK and Canada’s responses to the attacks on Iran is even more disappointing. Their support for the US and Israeli attacks on Iran premised on its alleged possession of nuclear weapons is disingenuous. Deception is no basis for diplomacy.
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The declamations delivered by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu as they launched yet another attack on Iran were deeply cynical. With bombs raining down on Tehran, there they both were, solemnly encouraging Iran’s youth to occupy the uplands of democracy by fomenting a revolution against their nation’s religious leaders and their Revolutionary Guard – a cynical excuse for military strikes that are defiantly illegal.
Netanyahu invited Iranians to take their destiny into their own hands. “Our forces are there, pilots of the free world, coming to your aid,” he said, adding his belief that the day was not far off when Israel and a free Iran would join hands for security and peace, for progress and prosperity. How devious. “Take back your country,” said Trump, before promising: “we’ll be there to help”. Exactly how was left unsaid. Again, how devious.
The future of Iran and the Middle East more broadly looks particularly grim. Societal breakdown in Iran sets the scene for sectarian violence across the Middle East, from Afghanistan to the Gulf states. Shia communities across the Middle East can expect Sunni reprisals for grievances that go back many generations. And Islamic religious instability plays into Israel’s hands: domestic instability in the neighbourhood weakens any anti-Israel resolve.
Instability in the Middle East foments more than community violence. It encourages the appearance of autocrats and strongmen whose intentions and objectives are completely unpredictable. And the consequences are equally unpredictable. Rising energy costs and growing refugee pressures on Europe can generate unforeseen political problems for Europe and the global community more broadly.
The threat of terrorism is ever-present, with anti-US attacks – ranging from US bases, military assets, embassies, commercial enterprises and even US nationals – always on the cards. Quite simply, Trump’s continuing attacks on the international rule of law have far-reaching consequences.
Australia, along with Canada and the United Kingdom, may well be locked into the global US-led signals intelligence and command and control system. But far from excusing us from following our moral compass, our participation in the world’s most powerful strategic communications system actually demands that we enhance and reinforce our moral authority and that of our partners, along with the alliances of which we and they are members.
Cynicism and duplicity are the negation of moral authority. Without principles – such as those Australia and America helped to negotiate in the UN Charter in 1945 – and the rules through which those principles are operationalised, catastrophe is increasingly in prospect.
So Albanese and Carney would do everyone a favour if they were to reinforce their advocacy and support for a robust international order based on rules that everyone respected, including the USA. And for Australia in particular, it is high time that we put our diplomacy where out mouth is, stop pandering to the powerful and exercised our own agency as a significant power in the Asia-Pacific region.
Allan Behm advises on international and security affairs at the Australia Institute in Canberra
