Australia’s coal export boom forecast to end abruptly amid big drop in demand from China

Coal being stockpiled in Newcastle, NSW. A new study’s lead author says that while the major parties say Australia’s coal exports have decades to run, the future is likely to be much less promising. Photograph: Greg Wood/AFP/Getty Images

Australia’s coal export boom will come to an abrupt end because of an “imminent and substantial” drop in purchases by China, and local coalmining communities should brace for the change, the lead author of a new study says.

The peer-reviewed paper, published on Thursday in the journal Joule, forecasts China’s thermal coal imports will contract at least a quarter from 2019 levels of 210m tonnes by 2025, mostly as improved transport links will give local suppliers an edge.