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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Cait Kelly and Mostafa Rachwani (earlier)

PM says further assistance coming as ‘rain bomb’ set to cost Queensland billions – as it happened

New South Wales Australia Scott Morrison Ukraine Queensland Russia ADF Sydney BoM China
Cleanup and recovery efforts in Murwillumbah
The flood waters in Murwillumbah have receded and residents start the clean up and access flood relief. Flooding across the NSW Northern Rivers has caused mud slides and destruction across the region. Photograph: Jay Penfold/The Guardian

What we learned, Monday 7 March

And with that, we are going to end this blog. Thank you so much to everyone who spent time with us throughout the day.

Before we go, here are the big headlines from today:

  • The BoM says coastal areas from Coffs Harbour on the NSW mid-north coast all the way to the Victoria border will be impacted by bad weather.
  • The ADF has defended its NSW flood response, saying: “We have done all that we can within the conditions we have been faced with.”
  • Queensland estimates the “rain bomb” that caused flooding in Brisbane and surrounds will cost the state more than $4bn.
  • Prime minister Scott Morrison says there is further federal flood assistance to come to affected areas.
  • NSW Health has confirmed two people with Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) are currently being treated in hospital in Victoria.
  • The nation recorded at least 32 Covid deaths, with 23 of those in South Australia where historical cases were added to today’s toll.

We will be back tomorrow – until then stay safe and if you’re in NSW or Queensland, stay dry.

Updated

Thai police say Shane Warne’s autopsy shows the cricket great died of natural causes.

Deputy spokesperson Kritsana Pattanacharoen said on Monday afternoon the autopsy report had been received and it concluded Warne had a “natural death”. Thai police have informed his family and the Australian embassy.

The police will now provide the report to the prosecutor to close the case

NSW Health has confirmed two people with Japanese encephalitis have been hospitalised with the mosquito-borne virus, which is now impacting four states as authorities urge the public to remain vigilant.

Both people - a man in a serious condition in ICU and a child who has been discharged from ICU but continues to receive hospital care - are being treated in Victoria.

Several more people in the state are undergoing further testing, with NSW Health warning more cases are expected to be confirmed over the coming days and weeks.

The viral illness has been confirmed in samples from a number of pig farms in regional NSW. Locally acquired cases of have never previously been identified in NSW in animals or humans. It cannot be spread via humans or by consuming pork meat.

A spokesperson from the Department of Health could not confirm if the two cases were included as part of the three Victorians that were reported to be admitted to hospital by the state’s department of health.

But the spokesperson said both residents were part of the NSW-Victoria border region – a man from the Corowa area and a child from Wentworth in the far south west of the state.

The case previously flagged as highly probable on Friday is the same man from Corowa who has been confirmed to carry the virus.

Dr Marianne Gale, NSW Health acting chief health officer, said the best protection from the virus was to take steps to avoid mosquito bites:

Unfortunately, our recent wet weather has led to very high mosquito numbers, so we need the community to be particularly vigilant and take steps to avoid mosquito bites.

We know mosquitoes are most active between dusk and dawn, and we need people planning activities near waterways or where mosquitoes are present to be especially cautious, particularly those in the vicinity of the Murray River and its branches.

Updated

Shane Warne's family release statements

Members of Shane Warne’s close family have released a statement honouring his life and describing “the never-ending nightmare” of losing him.

Warne’s parents, Keith and Brigitte, his brother Jason, his children, Jackson, Summer and Brooke and his ex-wife, Simone, each put out a statement.

This is the full statement from his parents:

The night of the 4th of March 2022 is when a never-ending nightmare began for our family, for that is the date we lost our much loved and admired son, father, brother and Uncle, Shane Keith Warne, a tragedy we will never come to terms with.

To find words to adequately express our sadness is an impossible task for us and looking to a future without Shane is inconceivable, hopefully the mountain of happy memories we all have will help us cope with our ongoing grief.

Over the past few days Shane has been honoured with the family being offered a state memorial for Shane by premier Dan Andrews which the family have gratefully accepted.

The premier and minister for sport and major events, Martin Pakula, [has] also advised that the Great Southern Stand at the Melbourne Cricket Ground will be renamed the S.K Warne Stand. We sincerely offer our thanks to the state government and the MCG trust for this honour.

We would also like to acknowledge the support of prime minister Scott Morrison for his kind words both personally and on behalf of the country, as everyone knows Shane was an extremely proud Victorian and Australian.

Brigitte and I are most grateful for the many messages of love and support received over the past few days and thank one and all for their kind words of comfort.

We also wish to acknowledge and thank those members of the media who are honouring our request to respect our family’s privacy and who will continue to do so.

Updated

From AAP:

Australia’s army chief has indicated to the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide he is open to the creation of an external process for reporting and investigating misbehaviour claims.

The inquiry will, for the next fortnight, probe what defence is doing to address issues with its culture and the support being provided to veterans.

The commission has previously been told accounts of bullying, poor treatment of women, a lack of support for veterans and new recruits being forced to undertake hazing initiation rituals.

Suicide rates are 24% higher for ex-serving men and double for ex-serving women than in Australia’s general population.

The chief of army, Lt Gen Rick Burr, who has held the top job since mid-2018, said the army was trying to create an environment where people could put their hand up and seek assistance.

“Are there real or perceived barriers or impediments to that? You have to think in some places that would be the case,” he told the commission on Monday.

“We are trying to promote, through positive examples of people doing that, and being supported through that process ... that increased awareness of others doing it promotes more people to do it.

“As an army culture ... those are the things we always need to continue to work on.”

Updated

Further evacuation advice from NSW SES for residents of Camden:

From AAP:

A Queensland grandmother told police her ex-partner warned she could be T-boned or shot by a sniper before the pair died in a house fire he started, a coroner has heard.

Doreen Langham told officers about the threat when interviewed by police weeks before the fatal house fire at her home in Logan, south of Brisbane in February last year.

Footage of the interview was played in an inquest in the Coroners Court, sitting in Southport on Monday, into the deaths of the 49-year-old and her ex-partner Gary Hely.

Langham told two officers Hely warned she should enjoy her life because she only had three weeks left and that she could be “T-boned, sniper shot or bashed”.

Counsel assisting, Ben Jackson, told the inquest the threats Langham said had been made by Hely – her partner of about two years – would “send a chill along anyone’s spine”.

“He said she had three weeks to live,” Jackson added.

Langham was initially reluctant to speak to officers, but was concerned after many months of Hely’s controlling and abusive behaviour.

Updated

Re: the mosquitobourne encephalitis virus below, NSW Health has given some suggestions on how to avoid mosquito bites:

  • Avoid going outdoors during peak mosquito times, especially at dawn and dusk.
  • Wear long sleeves and pants outdoors (reduce skin exposure). Also wear shoes and socks where possible.
  • Apply repellent to all areas of exposed skin, especially those that contain DEET, picaridin, or oil of lemon eucalyptus which are the most effective against mosquitoes
  • Reapply regularly including after swimming and perspiring.
  • If camping, ensure the tent has fly screens to prevent mosquitoes entering.
  • Mosquito coils and other devices that release insecticides can assist reducing mosquito bites but should be used in combination with topical insect repellents.
  • Reduce all water holding containers around the home where mosquitoes could breed. Mosquitoes only need a small amount of liquid to breed.

Updated

Two NSW residents in hospital with Japanese Encephalitis

NSW Health has confirmed two people with Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) are currently being treated in hospital.

Both people are residents of the NSW-Victoria border region – a man from the Corowa area and a child from the Wentworth area in the far south-west of NSW. They are both currently being treated in hospitals in Victoria.

The man remains in a serious condition in ICU. The child has been discharged from ICU but continues to receive hospital care due to the serious nature of their illness.

Several more people in NSW are undergoing further testing, and more cases are expected to be confirmed over the coming days and weeks.

Mosquito control activities are being carried out in the vicinity of farms where pigs are confirmed to have been infected by JEV and NSW Health is arranging vaccination of workers on affected farms.

There is no specific treatment for JEV, which can cause severe neurological illness with headache, convulsions and reduced consciousness in some cases.

Dr Marianne Gale, the acting chief health officer for NSW Health, said the best thing people throughout the state can do to protect themselves and their families against JEV is to take steps to avoid mosquito bites.

We are working closely with the NSW Department of Primary Industries and other states and territories to determine the extent to which the virus is circulating.

Unfortunately, our recent wet weather has led to very high mosquito numbers, so we need the community to be particularly vigilant and take steps to avoid mosquito bites.

We know mosquitoes are most active between dusk and dawn, and we need people planning activities near waterways or where mosquitoes are present to be especially cautious, particularly those in the vicinity of the Murray River and its branches.

Updated

We have a bit more information on this morning’s Sydney Harbour Bridge crash from AAP:

The SUV involved in a fiery head-on crash on the Sydney Harbour Bridge was stolen a short time before the accident, police say.

Three people were injured, forcing the bridge to close during the busy morning peak period as bystanders rushed to help trapped drivers.

Police believe the black Toyota Kluger that flipped after colliding head-on with a white Toyota Hiace van was stolen from the CBD shortly before the crash.

Superintendent Rohan Cramsie said the driver of the Kluger, a man in his 30s, was now under police guard at Royal North Shore Hospital as investigators wait to question him after he suffered serious, non-life threatening injuries.

The owner of the Kluger had been changing his tyre in the city on Monday morning when he was approached by a man under the guise of talking about his car.

“There was a short scuffle ... and then the male who was asking about the Kluger got into the Kluger and drove it away, and then headed towards the Harbour Bridge,” Supt Ramsie said.

Dashcam vision has already been posted online, capturing the scene just before, during and after the explosive moment of impact, with Good Samaritans rushing to help the trapped drivers seconds after the crash.

“It’s extremely confronting,” Supt Ramsie said.

“I can only start to begin to imagine what the other drivers would have witnessed and experienced when they saw that vehicle coming towards them which, what we would allege, would be above the speed limit,” he said.

“It’s horrifying to watch.”

Updated

From AAP:

A leading infectious diseases expert has urged the federal government to concentrate efforts on getting more older Australians to receive their Covid-19 booster.

Professor Peter Collignon from the Australian National University said the efficacy of boosters at protecting people from severe illness or death from Covid-19 was much larger for those aged over 50.

“We have to change the messaging around the boosters ... the older you are, the more benefit you get from the booster,” Prof Collignon told AAP on Monday.

“Everyone needs to get the booster, but some people get more benefit than others, particularly the elderly.”

It comes after NSW recorded five Covid-19 deaths in the most recent reporting period, all over the age of 60.

While all five of the deaths in the state had been double-vaccinated, none had been given their booster shot.

The latest vaccination figures showed more than 11.8 million Australians had received their third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.

The figure represents more than 64% of the eligible population, however, the booster rate has been stalling.

Updated

Retired football player and human rights activist Craig Foster is with ALP member Janelle Anne Saffin in Lismore. Foster is from the area. They are calling for a reconstruction commission.

Updated

Schools in Bowral, the largest town in the Southern Highlands of NSW, are reportedly cut off.

We’ll bring you more on this - and if you know anything, please get in contact. Twitter: @Cait__kelly.

SA records 23 deaths and 1,577 new cases

From AAP:

South Australia has added 23 deaths to its COVID-19 toll along with 1577 new infections.

SA Health says the deaths occurred between December 31 and March 3 and have come to light following the latest release of information from births, deaths and marriages.

All those who died had tested positive for coronavirus, taking the state’s tally since the start of the pandemic to 213.

There are 106 people with COVID-19 in hospital, including 15 people in intensive care.

Two people are on ventilators.

Updated

Many eyes will be watching nervously where the east coast low develops and how long it lingers near the NSW coast tomorrow.

Wollongong may get 90mm or as much as 300mm, showing how much of a challenge it is to forecast. Sydney may “only” get 50mm to 80mm, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

But inland regions such as Penrith may cop as much as 150mm and Richmond 120mm. How much falls and how quickly may determine if the flooding of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River is as bad as last week’s, or worse.

A lot, though, will depend on what happens to other sources of water. One of them is Warragamba where the dam has been spilling since last Wednesday.

That spill is picking up again, and how much it does will depend on the rain it gets. For now the forecast is still for a lot of rain, as in 60mm to 120mm.

Come Wednesday, the weather should start to clear up, but the strong winds could prove damaging if not dangerous.

Updated

Rain bomb to cost Queensland billions

Treasurer and minister for trade and investment Cameron Dick has today outlined the preliminary cost of last week’s severe weather event to the state budget and the broader Queensland economy.

Dick said the multi-billion dollar impacts reinforce the importance of building more resilience into infrastructure across the state.

Right now, our immediate focus is on helping those families and businesses hit by this disaster to get back on their feet

But at the same time, we are beginning the planning work that will create stronger, safer, more resilient communities.

It’s important to note that these estimates of the cost of this severe weather event are preliminary, and likely to rise as more damage assessments are conducted.

Preliminary economic impacts include:

  • Recovery programs and support measures: $2-2.5b
  • Reduction in Queensland economic activity: $1b
  • Private insurance claims: $936m

Dick said initial indications are that the cost of the south-east Queensland rain bomb will be lower than previous events that had a greater impact on regional Queensland.

For anyone dumping treasured possessions or hosing the mud out of their home, comparisons to other floods don’t mean much.

But the impact on our budget and economy does affect how quickly we can recover from natural disasters.

Updated

Mark McGowan has taken the stand in his defamation trial involving Clive Palmer, saying the billionaire’s “deeply offensive” statements had contributed to death threats by others against him and his family.

Giving evidence on Monday in the federal court in Sydney, the Western Australia premier said various public comments by Palmer had left him “extremely angry”, hurt and exasperated and caused him many sleepless nights.

Today, the Department of Health has labelled the rise in cases of Japanese encephalitis (JEV) a “communicable disease incident of national significance”, with cases detected across the east coast of Australia.

We have some analysis from Dr Ali Zaid, a viral immunologist at the Menzies Health Institute Queensland at Griffith University.

JEV is not a new virus in Australia, last outbreak was in 1995 in the top end. JEV has – until now – been confined to the tropical north [Torres Strait / Cape York Peninsula]. A more recent appearance in 2005 suggests that birds [especially migratory birds] might be carrying the virus around, and that pigs are good amplifying hosts.

In most cases, human infection with JEV is asymptomatic, but in about 1% of people this can progress to disease that includes encephalitis [inflammation of the brain]. In approximately 20% of people who do become ill, JEV can be lethal.

Prof Roy Hall, a virologist at the Australian Infectious Diseases Research Centre at the University of Queensland said:

JEV has likely been introduced to mainland Australia from Papua New Guinea via the Torres Straits or possibly from Indonesia through the Kimberly region or the Northern Territory.

Its spread to south-east Australia follows heavy rainfalls in central Australia and in the Murray Darling basin where the virus is carried to the south-east by infected waterbirds flying south, cycling between the birds and mosquitoes at flooded bodies of water where they rest and so on.

Symptoms include headache, nausea, mental confusion, stiff neck, seizures and possibly muscle weakness or partial paralysis.

Protect yourself from mosquito bites by covering up, wearing repellents etc.

Updated

A flood evacuation order has been given for parts of Camden, in Sydney’s south-west.

Residents and businesses near Sheathers lane, Kirkham lane, the Poplar caravan park and parts of Menangle road, have been told to leave by 9pm or risk being stuck.

Once flood waters reach 8.5 metres at the Camden River, certain areas may be trapped without access to power or water.

Updated

Thomae is asked why more helicopters are only coming today:

Those Chinook helicopters are from the Singaporean defence forces. They have generously offered those and the Australian government has accepted [those] helicopters.

Those Chinooks that are on operation today are based in Townsville. All of our Chinooks are moving south to support the operation.

Updated

Thomae is asked if he has to wait for a call from the NSW government to operate within the state.

I think that is important to understand, as I described, the commonwealth disaster plan enacted on the 24 February set in place our authority to support state governments.

Once that was initiated, it is important to understand as well that the ADF made what is called an emergency support force. In every state and territory, we have 150 people on 24 hours notice in the high-risk season and that is what happened.

In northern NSW with the reserve list from Lismore supporting their own community or in south-east Queensland with the ADF assets who were able to immediately respond. We did that.

Updated

Thomae:

I think it is important to remember that most of those communities we have been describing were cut off up until the weekend, it was very difficult to get any land access to those places. We have been pushing into those places as much as we can since the start of the flood event. And we continue to do so.

He said he understands people’s frustration with the response:

It is very distressing for those communities. We understand that distress. But we have to operate in a safe matter. If out aircraft cannot safely operate to get into those locations because of the conditions last week, then that explains part of what you asking for.

Updated

Reporter: “People needed help. That was when they needed help. Do you accept that they feel abandoned? Do you think they could have had more help?”

Thomae:

I am very sorry for all of those people who have felt that they haven’t been supported. I empathise completely with their plight. The scale of devastation is extraordinary.

It is something that is very sobering for all of us to look at. What I can say is from an ADF perspective, we have [used] the resources we have had available immediately to respond and that has saved lives.

Updated

Reporter: “When people were on their roof calling for help and [were being] picked up by people in boats passing by, where was the ADF?”

Thomae:

We were there. We conducted rescues of 133 people in that time. You accept when that happens on 27 February but we were doing those search and rescue operations but the scale of devastation is extraordinary in that area. We have been operating within weather conditions that allow us to safely operate.

Updated

ADF on NSW flood response: 'We have done all that we can within the conditions we have been faced with'

Reporter: “What about pilots out there doing their own drop-offs in their own aircraft. Could we have helped more of them?”

Thomae:

I think we have done all that we can within the conditions we have been faced with. As conditions have improved, we have.

It is great to see other community members supporting their own community. It is not ... just an ADF response, the local government and local emergency services were worked very hard over the last week. We support them. If local communities are supporting their own community, I think that is a great thing.

Updated

A reporter has asked why people on the ground are saying there is not enough help - they are apparently seeing Blackhawks flying over but not helping:

It is a combination of things on that question. What I described as the conditions we have had to operate in and out ability to conduct air operations.

As the weather has improved, we have been doing drops and getting out those communities. Through the local emergency operation centres, we prioritise those tasks and leaned forward into those to start doing that.

In the last couple of days, we have been using our aviation assets to conduct reconnaissance of those communities, yesterday we started landing in some of those communities to determine the need.

Our airmobile operation starting today will allow us to start putting people into it. The conditions have been radical. A lot of those communities have been cut off and a lot of landslides, it will be difficult to get into those communities.

We will be prioritising those communities most in need and most isolated in coming days.

Thomae is asked why this support wasn’t available last week:

I think it is important to look at the timeline ... federal government activated the commonwealth disaster plan on Friday 25 February.

We conducted search and rescue operations from that time. Utilising the assets that were most available to us which was in south-east Queensland. Those four aircraft have been on station since that time.

Many of those rescues I have described were conducted by those helicopters. We continued with a search and rescue operation on 26 and 27 February. As the storms moved further south and the need changed to northern NSW, the reserve soldiers ... who live in that community immediately responded to the requirements and reported air operations from 27 February.

As the weather and conditions allowed, and I think it is important to note that the conditions in northern NSW have been very difficult to conduct both air and land operations, most roads have been cut off.

We have been expanding our footprint to meet the needs of the local community.

Updated

The Australian Defence Force is speaking in Sydney about its response to the floods.

Major General David Thomae is speaking:

We currently have 2000 Australian Defence Force personnel on task supporting in New South Wales and Queensland.

He said the ADF is cooperating with QLD and NSW governments:

Since Friday 25 February, aviation support has been provided to south-east Queensland, northern NSW and the Sydney region. Our people have rescued 113 people and completed 79 helicopter missions rescuing people off roofs and in very trying weather conditions and they continue to be challenging. Liaise and planning personnel embedded at State emergency operation centres and also at the local level. This allows us to facilitate planning and to ensure ADF personnel can get out of the areas of need as quickly as possible.

So, how are we today? Today, we have 637 personnel on task in northern NSW and more than 1,358 on task supporting south-east Queensland. Including in that 637 are 119 who are airborne at the moment.

Thomae said the ADF’s priority is isolated communities in northern NSW and Lismore.

In Queensland for the last 24 hours, we continue with cleanup efforts in Gympie, Gatton, Saint Lucia, Fairfield, Rocklea, Grantham and Logan among others.

In northern NSW in the next 24 hours, we will continue to provide support to isolated communities.

Updated

According to an update from emergency services this morning, there were about 280 ADF troops helping with flood assistance. A basecamp for 100 troops is being built.

The Rural Fire Service, meanwhile, has set up a basecamp at Wollongbar TAFE near Ballina. It will house 450 personnel to scale up to 550 as more shelters get added.

“Numerous communities across the northern rivers are currently isolated,” the emergency services report said.

A new phone number, 13 77 88, has been set up for community members in need of rapid relief and resupply requests. Service NSW will run it.

A third incident control centre is being set up at Taree on the mid-north coast to take control of coordination by Tuesday morning.

“Telco agencies are responding to multiple isolated outages and are progressively restoring services as access and conditions allow,” the report said.

Metro Sydney continues to face flood threats, and not just in the Hawkesbury-Nepean floodplain. Authorities, for instance, are planning for “potential operational activity” from the east coast low that forecasters are expecting to form.

Priority areas facing potential flooding include Sussex Inlet “around Tuesday”.

Updated

We have this video of the crash on Sydney Harbour Bridge this morning. All lanes have since been re-opened on the bridge.

A warning: Some viewers may find the footage distressing.

Updated

WA records one death and 2,365 new cases

WA Health is reporting a total of 2,365 new cases to 8pm last night. There are currently 13,486 active cases in Western Australia.

Sadly, WA Health can confirm one person – a female in her 40s with other underlying health conditions – who tested positive for Covid-19 has passed away. Due to patient confidentiality, no further information will be released by the Department on this death.

To 8pm last night, there were 36 people with Covid-19 in hospital, none of whom were in ICU.

Updated

Queensland records one death and 3,677 new cases

Updated

Another east coast low is forecast to form off NSW overnight into Tuesday, bringing heavy rain but also stirring stronger winds than a similar system last week.

The Bureau of Meteorology has expanded its warning area for heavy falls and damaging winds to cover an area from Coffs Harbour almost all the way south to the Victorian border.

As has been a persistent warning in recent days, the rainfall could lead to flash flooding, with six-hourly totals between 70mm to 120mm possible, the bureau said.

“This one is going to come with more wind [than last week’s east coast low] but rainfall totals may be fairly similar,” said Hugh McDowell, a bureau meteorologist.

For Sydney, rain totals should start to pick up late tonight and into Tuesday, while the winds are likely to strengthen from Tuesday afternoon, McDowell said. Another difference is the direction, with the winds coming from the south unlike last week’s easterly gusts.

“There’s more likely to be trees coming down with this one than the last one,” McDowell. “Sodden ground doesn’t help things at all.”

York is asked how many food drops they are doing and how many people are cut off:

I don’t have an indication of the numbers at the moment but I can say compared to the floods from last year, the community has been exceptional in those areas.

I think they certainly learn from the floods, we learn from the floods. They have been very positive in preparing, following the orders of the SES, making sure that they have got resources if they are in communities that remain high and dry above the floodwaters.

But just know that the roads will be cut, they have prepurchased and got supplies to be able to last through this event and our boats are very active with helicopters at the moment supplying some of those remote locations as well.

So I thank the community for being so prepared because it has not been as many requests for assistance is what we had, for example, this time last year so they have done a terrific job out there.

Updated

York is asked if they have enough people:

Thankfully the ADF and partner emergency services agencies, we have every resource that is available at there. We have called on assistance from other states as well so we have got assistance from Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and the ACT assisting us in responding to the needs of the community.

Updated

York was asked where it will be wrose:

I can say that the State Emergency Service and our partner agencies are active in almost all parts of New South Wales, particularly on the east coast. We are looking at the lower-mid-north coast into the Hunter, we’ve already got flooding in the Hunter area, there is heavy rains today.

The Hawkesbury-Nepean river is closing in on some of those records flood levels similar to what we had last year, so we are working very busily in those communities, but particularly around Kiama, Sussex Inlet, the Shoalhaven and Illawarra, we are particularly concerned about this east coast low that is forecast to come back in from the ocean and hitting the New South Wales coast.

Updated

York:

There is lots of help up there in relation to that [housing] assistance and we are helping those people finding houses that they can go to.

We are managing the food supplies, getting out, we’ve got hubs where people can go in and get food and essentials, and we are also putting them on the boats, in the helicopters, out to the community.

We are working with the communications providers to getting those telephone towers and other communication back up and running and that is really important so that people can call if they need assistance. The recovery centres have opened as well and people can go in there and seek assistance from experts that can help them in relation to financial assistance and support.

As I say, particularly looking at the threat coming in the next overnight and into tomorrow, it is important that people follow those directions. It is important if we give you an evacuation warning to ensure that you have all your essentials and important documentation and are able to leave your premises in a safe way.

Updated

York:

Overnight with the extensive rains we had over 1,290 calls for assistance in the last 24 hours and 25 further flood rescues. So it is particularly dangerous out there. I would asked people not to travel unless it is essential and to call 000 if it is life-threatening.

As I say we have over 2,000 ADF personnel on-site. We have over 600 Rural Fire Service, over 600 SES volunteers on the ground helping the communities to respond to this very severe weather.

The clean up is under way. There are trucks, there are bins going in, particularly in the Northern Rivers area, and as the waters recede there will be more assistance coming to those communities that are cut off.

And they’ve already started picking up the rubbish off the sides of the road to make sure that the community can get back to a reasonable level as we go through. And this will take weeks if not months to help those communities get back.

There’s extra accommodation for those who are homeless or have been affected by the weather in relation to not being able to go back to their homes.

We’ve done over 4,000 damage assessments on houses and over 2,000 of those are uninhabitable and those people need assistance.

Updated

York:

We have many resources out over both of those areas ensuring that the community is ready but also ensuring that we are able to respond to this request for assistance.

If I can concentrate on the Northern Rivers area, it doesn’t look like the storms are easing up there and there will still be some rains and thunderstorms but they will be isolated.

So we are very much into the resupply and clean up of those affected communities. We have resources from the ADF, there will be 2,000 on the ground by the end of the day into tomorrow. They are sending more troops up at the moment as we speak with equipment to assist those communities that need help.

We are also heavily involved in the resupply to some of those communities.

I know that some communities have been cut off. Some wonderful community members are filling some of the gaps in relation to some of the essential items getting out to the community but do remind the community, please use our resources and ring the number if you need assistance.

We’ve partnered with Service New South Wales to open up a new phone line to assist those that need resupply. 13 77 88. And that is to be able to contact us and Service New South Wales will co-ordinate those messages and requests for assistance to come to the SES and we will send out resupplies.

If there are no calls received from any particular areas and they are being looked after by community members, we need to know that you need assistance so please ring those numbers and we will get that assistance out there.

Updated

Commissioner of the NSW SES is Carlene York is up.

What we are faced with is a very serious situation in broad areas of the New South Wales east coast. You have heard the weather report and forecast for the coming days. And those severe thunderstorms and chances of flooding are extending now from the mid-North Coast right down into Bega, so at the moment the SES and partner agencies are preparing those communities, sandbagging, getting messaging out and I am asking the community to be aware of those messages that go out, to follow the directions of the SES and our partner emergency service agencies.

To get your homes ready, to understand what your risk is for your area of [the] chance of flooding and particularly in relation to your ability to evacuate from your home and the access to roads.

What will happen in this event as there is a chance of riverine flooding and severe flooding and flash flooding, and that might mean that you cannot get quickly away from your homes. So listen to our warnings for those areas, not only in the low-lying flooded areas, but some of these areas are quite heavily and the chance of landslides is great, particularly with the saturated land, and the trees going over and the gale-force winds.

So I am reminding those people down on the south coast to be aware.

More in the Hawkesbury-Nepean area, we already have severe flooding, and this will just top our rivers and flood even further. So for those who have already evacuated, if it is not safe to go home, please do not go home. Stay where it is safe and make decisions that are safe for you and your families.

Updated

Severe weather to affect coastal areas from Coffs Harbour to Bega

Coastal areas from Coffs Harbour on the NSW mid-north coast all the way to the Victoria border will be impacted by bad weather. Dean Narramore is the BoM meteorologist:

Severe weather warnings are current for heavy rain and damaging winds from Coffs Harbour, all the way down to Bega and including every community and town in between there and extending well inland towards the Blue Mountains, Central Tablelands, Southern Highlands and possibly even Canberra as well.

A road weather alert is also current for the metropolitan area of Sydney. That really does extend out into the hilly terrain as well for the Central Coast, Blue Mountains and into the Illawarra, particularly for tonight and tomorrow as heavy rain and strong winds are likely to lead to hazardous and dangerous driving conditions, possibly bringing down trees and power lines. And obviously the heavy rain can lead to cut roads and also, impassible roads I should say, and possible landslips as well.

There are also hazardous surf warnings for coastal communities today and tomorrow.

So can I just say please make sure you stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings today, tonight, into tomorrow as the situation will continue to rapidly evolve as the low moves south and develops quickly offshore tonight and tomorrow with widespread heavy rain or particularly on already-saturated soils.

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There is more flooding expected for the Hawkesbury.

We’re looking at flooding similar to last week on some parts of the river and in other areas it could be worse than what we saw last weekend, similar to what we saw in March last year.

Road weather alerts are also current for hazardous and driving dangerous conditions, right across not only the Sydney Metro but also for elevated terrain as well, so travel will start becoming quite hard as we get into tonight and tomorrow.

Authorities are also expecting severe winds across the region.

With gusts up to 90km/h possible, dangerous travel conditions are likely to develop tonight and through tomorrow from the Hunter all the way through the Central Coast, Sydney metropolitan area and into the Illawarra and Shoalhaven communities as well. So please, if you are in this area, particularly over the next 24 hours stay weather aware, keep up to date with latest forecasts and warnings and listen to all advice from emergency services and just continue to track the rain on the radar.

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Someone from the BoM is talking, and I, unfortunately, did not catch his name.

Severe weather warnings are current for heavy rainfall and damaging winds, extending from Coffs Harbour all the way down to Bega and the ... hilly terrain of the Hunter and Shoalhaven as well.

We are expecting rainfall of 50-150mm, quite likely, especially through coastal areas and elevated terrain and especially nearer and south of where the slow tracks. We expect the rainfall to increase through the Hunter area as we move through later parts of today and that rain will then move down toward the city metropolitan area, Hawkesbury-Nepean river and also spread across large parts of the Illawarra and Shoalhaven areas as well, with heavy rain really ramping up in the early morning hours of Tuesday and continuing for much of the day.

And it’s this additional rain on already saturated soils, catchment and flooded rivers, creeks and streams which is giving us an increasing amount of concern for the communities from the Central Coast, of Gosford, all the way down towards Ulladulla and inland areas as well.

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Widespread rain to continue in NSW for next 24 hours

Authorities are talking in Sydney now about the flood situation.

We’ve got an east coast low, it is currently developing over north-eastern New South Wales and that brought some heavy rain and thunderstorms there last night, and that is now starting to shift southwards as we move through today. With the focus of heavy rainfall right now through, then the north coast and into the Hunter region, and then as we move into tonight and tomorrow, we know it will move off and rapidly deepen overnight into early morning tomorrow.

And that means we have got increasing concerns from the Central Coast all the way down to the Illawarra area, extending well inland ... to the Blue Mountains, the Illawarra, Shoalhaven and the Sydney metropolitan area.

What we’re looking at with particular concern are the already saturated catchments we have from the Hunterm all the way down to the Hawkesbury-Nepean river, and even in towards the Shoalhaven and Wollongong areas as well. [There’s] many minor to major flooding warnings already occurring on numerous rivers across central parts of New South Wales, with widespread rain to continue over the next 24 hours.

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Scott Morrison has poured cold water on the idea the government could make a decision before the May election on which nuclear-propelled submarine design it will adopt as part of the Aukus partnership. Australia, the US and the UK are currently six months into a study that was earmarked to take up to 18 months looking into how the project will be delivered.

Despite today’s announcement that the government has shortlisted three sites for a new submarine base on the east coast of Australia, there remains a lack of clarity about the submarine construction plans and how long until the new submarines will actually be operating. While Morrison has previously said the first submarine was expected to be in the water by about 2040, the defence minister, Peter Dutton, argued yesterday that Australia would “acquire the capability much sooner than that”.

Dutton told the ABC’s Insiders program:

We will have an announcement within the next couple of months about which boat we are going with [and] what we can do in the interim.

That sparked speculation the Coalition might announce this major decision before the election. Government sources had already played down this prospect, given the caretaker mode is likely to begin when the House of Representatives is dissolved next month. At the Lowy Institute virtual event a short time ago, Morrison was reasonably definitive:

No, we don’t anticipate that that decision will be made before the election. We don’t, and no one should expect it to. It won’t be done in that timeframe ...That would involve a whole other process particularly during a caretaker period leading up to the election. But I can confirm what Peter has said that we have made a lot of progress.

Morrison added that Aukus was “a trilateral partnership” with the US and the UK, “not a procurement contest”.

This is a partnership where the decisions are being made together, which separates it from any other procurement arrangement that the government has been involved with.

Lastly, the PM is asked how he thinks the fighting in Ukraine will end:

I’m not confident of that outcome at this point. And nor can Mr Putin be confident of the outcome he thought would come so easily, and I think this is a very important point.

I think there has been an overestimation of Russia’s capability. And that has been made more broadly and I think that has been made in Russia, and I think that forces a recalibration of what some people think they can do. It might look all good on paper.

It might look like what can be achieved from what the generals and others tell you, but few strategies survive contact with the enemy, as defence force generals will tell you, and I think that has been lived out in a very candid way in Ukraine.

The PM says we will see a prolonged conflict.

I think what we’ll see is resistance in the Ukraine, which will only grow over time. I think any gains that are potentially made will be very hard to hold, and this all goes to our view about what our response should be and that is impose the heaviest possible price for as long as possible to deter any other autocrat from thinking they can do go – can go down a similar path and it can be done easily or quickly.

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A reporter asked if Australia will increase its quota of refugees to allow a larger number of these desperate people to resettle here?

Just like with Afghanistan, if we need to we will. And, I said, the first thing we did is we immediately put to the top of the pile all Ukrainian visa applications. Now, at that time there was – this is two weeks ago, there was about 430 outstanding.

They were quickly resolved and over that 2-week period we have now processed and run some 1700 visas already.

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The PM has been asked about Aukus and if the Ukraine invasion will impact the building of nuclear-propelled subs:

I don’t think it changes it at all.

I think it highlights the higher threat environment in which we need to operate and why we need greater capabilities but I think all of those points were driving the forces of Aukus before these events took place, and it continues to carry it.

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Morrison again says China could help end the war.

What can Australia do? Keep calling this out. While most of the world was focused on what the actions of Russia was, I was quite adamant in speaking up on the fact that I was listening for the voice of the Chinese government when it came to condemning the actions of Russia.

And there was a chilling silence. And when I learned the other day that they were easing wheat trade restrictions from Russia and throwing Russia an economic lifeline while the rest of the world was seeking to impose a levy price, this for me just jars completely with what the broader international interest is here.

Now, China has long claimed to a role as one of the major powers in the world and to be a contributor to global peace and stability. This is why I reinforced this point. No country will have a bigger impact on concluding this terrible war in Ukraine than China.

So long as they had a bet each way on this. Then I fear the bloodshed will continue.

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The PM on Taiwan:

I wouldn’t for a moment seek to draw any parallels between the situation in the Taiwan strait and Ukraine. I think these situations are entirely different and the responses that would be expected in the Taiwan strait would be completely different to what has occurred in Ukraine.

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Morrison is asked about the Russia/China relationship and what he makes of it.

I would describe it more as an instinctive relationship, an opportunistic relationship, rather than a strategic one.

There does seem to be some alignment in the sort of world order that they would prefer to the one that has been in place since the end of the second world war.

Morrison is asked how confident he is that the solidarity with Ukraine will continue from the international community.

This was not the product of president Putin seeking leverage to try and gain some marginal advantage in some negotiations and the usual European dance of diplomacy that goes around here. That’s not what this was. He planned this a long time ago and he was absolutely determined to follow it through and he went and told China he was going to do it by the reports that we see, very clearly. And this is quite chilling.

He says Putin is an autocrat and doesn’t play by the same rules as other liberal leaders.

You know, we can’t step back from this. I know it comes at a cost. I know it means that we have been targeted, but we must look clear-eyed about the threats in our own region and what’s occurring in Europe. And it was a very good discussion at the Quad the other night.

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Morrison has been asked about his call with Zelenskiy:

He’s very focused, he’s very determined. He has a clear plan. It obviously depends on continuing to rally international support both in a practical way when it comes to lethal defence support as well as maintaining the pressure.

And I think all western countries, all those participating in these sanctions, need to hold fast and endure over the long-term.

Morrison says he spoke about Australia helping Ukraine and how Russia has to pay a diplomatic and economic price for this.

He’s very appreciative of the support, particularly from Australia, a long way away from Ukraine. I think when he first heard of our support, this was over a week ago, we’ve been trying to get in touch with each other, but when I get a message saying, “Can’t do the call tonight because...”, you can fill in the rest of what he was up to, probably the most reasonable excuse have heard for not being able to complete a call on a spectacular and particular night, and we have given him full support.

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Morrison:

So I don’t think it’s playing out for Mr Putin as he thought, and it’s certainly playing out far better than anyone would have anticipated for president Zelenskiy and he’s showed forthrightness and determination which has been inspiring and that’s why we lit up the Opera House.

That’s why so many countries have done similar things. Yes, we have to continue to encourage them to go forward with their efforts and continue to provide them with everything we can to support them.

The sails of the Sydney Opera House are lit up in the colours of the Ukrainian national flag to show support against the war, in Sydney
The sails of the Sydney Opera House are lit up in the colours of the Ukrainian national flag to show support against the war, in Sydney Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/AAP

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Morrison is asked if he thinks it likely there will be regime change in Kyiv than in Moscow.

I probably wouldn’t speculate on either of those at this point, but what I would say is this. There is no doubt that Mr Putin is not getting what he was seeking. And each and every day the resistance by Ukraine, I think, has been extraordinary, and the cost is piling up day on day on day.

I think he’s overestimated the capacity of how he might be able to prosecute this illegal war, and the sheer callous disregard not only for innocent civilians in Ukraine but, frankly, for the way that he has just sent young conscripts into flames, I don’t see how that would be resonating well back in Russia.

Morrison is finishing with a sales pitch for the Liberal-Nationals government – saying they will keep Australian’s safe.

If there is a simple message from my remarks today, it is that national security affects all Australians. It extends far beyond the prospect of fighting wars.

It’s about safeguarding our way of life. Our access to amenities, liberties and essentials that Australians enjoy. It’s about seeking to change the world we live in to provide peace, stability and an international order that wants freedom.

We face a world more fragile, more contested and more fragmented than at any time since the second world war. My government has maintained steadfast in protecting Australia’s interests.

We have led, not followed. Australians know the courage we have shown and we will continue to show it. We are the proven choice, the Liberal-National government, when it comes to protecting Australia’s national security interests. Our decisions are underpinned by our values as a liberal democratic country.

By investing in our national security we are better placed to place ourselves, and work with others to protect theirs. To ensure our region is one in which each country’s sovereignty is respected, where might does not make right and where the same rules apply to everyone, all countries, whether they are giants or small island states like our Pacific family. Our shared prosperity and security depend on it.

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Morrison says it’s important Australia builds “Its resilience at home”.

Our 2020 cybersecurity strategy set out a $177bn 10-year plan to achieve our vision for more security in the online world for Australians, businesses and essential services upon which we all depend.

We have invested in the capabilities of the Australian CyberSecurity Centre with a particular focus on enhancing our capability to protect our critical networks and infrastructure. We have enhanced the powers and capabilities of our security agencies to combat cybercriminals.

Secondly, our government has been at the leading edge at protecting Australia’s critical infrastructure to secure the essential services Australians reply on, from electricity, water, healthcare and groceries.

Thirdly, the Covid pandemic underscored why it’s important to maintain sovereign manufacturing capability. This is central to our nation’s economic plan. The government’s $1.5bn modern manufacturing capability is securing Australia’s sovereign capabilities and supply chain resilience.

[Manufacturing] focuses on six areas: space, medical products, food and beverage, recycling and clean energy, resources technology and critical minerals processing and, of course, defence.

Building our sovereign defence capability not only means acquiring new capabilities and growing and skilling the people we need to operate them, it also means growing and building the industry ability and capacity needed to maintain them. Supply chains underpin Australia’s prosperity and security.

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Morrison says China could help stop the invasion of Ukraine.

The world has heard China’s words about its commitments to global peace and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and playing a positive role in the national community for a very long time now.

So it’s now up to China and its leaders at this point in history to demonstrate that these are more than just words but I fear the early signs are not good. As following a meeting in Beijing at the Olympics, that proceeded the invasion, the Chinese government has acted to throw Putin’s Russia an economic lifeline, relaxing trade restrictions on Russian wheat.

And today we hear of potential involvement out of China in supporting a payment system in Russia. China’s language has also [implied] an equivalence of interest between Russia and Ukraine and even a legitimate cause for Russia to invade Ukraine.

No country would have a greater impact right now on Russia’s violent aggression towards Ukraine than China joining the rest of the world in denouncing Russia’s aggression and applying the same sanctions that we have. So far they have not.

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Morrison is now speaking about how Australia has been strengthing ties in the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s growing power and influence though are a geostrategic fact that is known to all of our partners. What we care about is how Beijing uses its strength. There’s no doubt that China has become more assertive and is using its power in ways that are causing concern to nations across the region and beyond including our own.

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We’ll also be spending and investing more in the west too as part of the required upgrades to infrastructure in other locations – and I’ll have more to say about that in the weeks ahead.

The establishment of a new submarine base on the east coast will bring significant positive long-term economic benefits, and they’re obvious. Investment associated with building a new greenfield submarine base, as well as the economic benefits flowing from a larger ADF population and their families in and around that base.

There will also be significant benefits for local and national industry in supporting the new base and the more complex and larger nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Again, none of this detracts from what we will be doing, have been doing, and will continue to do at Fleet Base West, which is central to our future.

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Defence has not constructed a major new base since Robertson Barracks in the 1990s. Construction of an east coast base would be the largest undertaking in the program in our Defense Force.

Based on early estimates, we have provisioned nationally more than $10bn to meet the facilities and infrastructure requirements for the future transition from Collins to the future nuclear-powered submarines over the next 20 years, which includes, but is not exclusive to, the east coast submarine base.

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Morrison says the government will build a submarine base. He says the initial work will be completed by 2023.

Today, I can announce the government has decided to establish a future submarine base on the east coast of Australia as well, to support this position of the future nuclear-powered submarines. This is about additional national capacity, not relocating any existing or planned future capacity for Fleet Base West. Fleet Base West will remain home to our current and future submarines, given its strategic importance on the Indian Ocean.

The decision to establish an east coast submarine base has been many years in the making, as part of the transition. The government has now determined that to support your decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, a second base will enhance our strategic deterrent capability, significant advantages in operational, training, personnel and industrial terms.

An optimal ease coast base will provide home-ported submarines with specialised wharfs, maintenance facilities, administrative and logistics support, personal amenities, and suitable accommodation for submarine crews and support staff, including those visiting.

It would also enable [the] visiting of US and UK nuclear-powered submarines.

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Morrison says Australia is enhancing its weapons, including long-range strike capabilities.

Australia will be one of the few countries to field Tomahawk missiles, the extended-range version of the joint missile, and other sophisticated strike capabilities.

Through the $1bn guided weapon and explosive ordnance enterprise I announced, we will be able to make our own weapons on our own soil. Now, this is essential to keep Australians safe, while also building sovereign capability right across Australia. We are developing niche technologies to enhance our capability and partner interoperability into space and advanced cyber domains.

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Morrison says the government is bolstering Australia’s military capabilities.

The challenges we face continue to mount, they require us to increase our resilience, expand our capabilities, and harden our defences. [The] Liberal-Nationals government that I lead is taking decisive action to ensure that Australia’s future is secure.

Firstly, by building our military capability for the new challenges of the 21st century. Secondly, by widening and reinforcing our webs of alignment globally, especially in the Indo-Pacific. And, thirdly, by strengthening our national resilience at home with policies that reinforce both economic and national security goals into the future.

So, the cornerstone of national security under our government has been extensive reinvestment in defence capability.

As you know, when we came to government, the defence budget as a share of our economy had fallen to 1.56%. That was the lowest level since the second world war. Now defence spending in 2020-21, as a percentage of our economy, of our GDP, is above 2%. This year it will be at almost 2.1%, and rising.

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Morrison:

This war of choice by Mr Putin is a reminder that although Australia’s focus is the Indo-Pacific, events elsewhere can affect our regional security. The Indo-Pacific remains at the centre of global geostrategic competition.

Australia is an Indo-Pacific nation. The future of the Indo-Pacific is our future. Threats in our region are proliferating from both state and non-state actors. Militarisation is expanding and evolving rapidly. The spectre from terrorism and all forms of violent extremism endures.

Of the challenge for a more surreptitious, disinformation, cyberattacks, foreign interference, it’s mounting daily. We’re seeing increasing resorts in our region to grey-area tactics, where the boundary between legitimate and hostile activity is deliberately blurred.

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Morrison:

It’s been humbling to witness the courage and moral clarity of President Zelenskiy’s inspiring leadership in his country, and it was a privilege to be able to commend him for that in our conversation just a few days ago. On behalf of all Australians.

There is a wider lesson here for western liberal democracies as we come face to face with brutal autocratic aggression and coercion, and that is we must stand together.

We cannot afford the pettiness of small differences to infect our relations and our long-term cooperation. We have to get over these, and fast. Our adversaries will ruthlessly look to exploit this. What unites us as Western liberal democracies is far greater, and far more enduring, than what divides us.

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Morrison:

Australia is working with other countries to ensure that Putin’s Russia pays the maximum possible economic price for this brutal war of aggression. This is important because we know there are powerful actors in our region who are watching closely, looking for signs of weakness and division within the west. Unprecedented economic and financial sanctions are now humbling and biting hard on the world’s 11th-biggest economy. A significant portion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves has been frozen, and the Russian economy is increasingly cut off from western financial markets.

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Morrison says the government is also helping with $35m in humanitarian assistance.

Australia’s assistance will deliver life-saving services and supplies, including shelter, water, food, and medical care. Since the crisis began less than two weeks ago, we have fast-tracked the approval of some 1,700 visas and have begun preparations to address likely demands on our humanitarian and broader migration program.

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Morrison:

We have offered our prayers, but in Australia, we have also sent our ammunition.

Morrison says Russia will continue its attack on Ukriane.

Everything points to a bloody and protracted conflict. More than 1.5 million people have already fled Ukraine, and we fear this is only the beginning of an unfolding and terrible humanitarian catastrophe.

As I remarked [to] president Zelenskiy just on Saturday evening, Australia will continue to stand with the brave people of Ukraine, and we are working with our allies and partners to supplement Ukraine’s military defences.

Last Tuesday, I announced around $70m in defensive military assistance and non-lethal military equipment and medical supplies to support the defence of Ukraine. Our missiles are on the ground now. If there is further effective support we can provide to assist Ukraine’s efforts, we will. Every day Ukraine resists is a further day of humiliation for President Putin and imposes a heavy price on his illegal, reckless and callous acts of aggression.

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Morrison says we are facing the most difficult security situation in 80 years.

So Australia faces its most difficult and significant, most dangerous security environment in 80 years. This is where I would really like to address my remarks today. Firstly, the crisis in Europe and the contribution Australia is making, then the broader challenge to world order and Australia’s national security response, focusing especially on our own region, the Indo-Pacific.

Morrison says he does not want conflict but it is important for his government to take a stand.

We have been criticised for our stand, including in our own country, and indeed we have been targeted by those we have criticised. But I am pleased we have been prepared to stand our ground. Because if not us, then who? Would we be expecting others to do it on Australia’s behalf, to protect our interests?

I certainly do not believe Australians want such timidity and resignation from their leaders.

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Morrison:

Now, we’re right to aspire and have open economies. However, the hope that such inclusion and accommodation would lead to some reform or moderation of these autocratic regimes, or ... broadly in tackling big global and economic and environmental challenges, well, that hope has been disappointed.

As prime minister, I have been warning about this for years, including at the Lowy Institute. Our Liberal-Nationals government has been clear-eyed on these threats. We have taken strong, brave, and world-leading action in response.

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Morrison says the international order is under threat.

The well-motivated, altruistic ambition of our international institutions has opened the door, unwittingly, to this threat, just as our open markets and liberal democracies have enabled hostile influence and interference to penetrate our own societies and economies.

The PM is on Ukraine now. He says “the horror of war has befallen Europe”.

An unprovoked, unjust, and illegal war. After months of planning, bullying, coercion and intimidation, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Australia strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we condemn Russia’s abhorrent actions in the strongest possible terms as a gross violation of international law and an assault on freedom.

Morrison says in Lismore, it is not “just a flood event but a catastrophic natural disaster”.

We are currently bringing together a further package of support – and I look forward to being able to visit the impacted areas later this week after my current Covid isolation is completed, to assess that situation firsthand as we prepare our further response.

But most of all today, to the thousands of Australians who have just reached out and helped their neighbour during these terrible floods, thank you.

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PM speaks on east coast floods, Ukraine crisis

Prime minister Scott Morrison is up. He will be speaking about Ukraine as part of a Lowy Institute event.

He has started by talking about what is happening with the floods in NSW and Queensland.

Sadly, 16 people have so far been lost. Our deepest condolences go out to their families and their loved ones. I want to thank all those engaged in the painstaking work of rescue and recovery.

Updated

Hello everyone, this is Cait Kelly. I am just standing by for the PM to begin speaking – he should be up any moment.

If you want to contact me this afternoon, my twitter is @cait__kelly.

Updated

And with that, I will hand the blog over to Cait Kelly. Thanks for reading.

We are expecting the PM to speak in around 10 minutes, this time via Youtube link.

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WaterNSW has supplied some fresh figures on Warragamba Dam, Sydney’s main reservoir.

The dam has been spilling since Wednesday morning and flows at present are about 160 gigalitres a day.

Inflows into the dam are at 113 GL/day, but rainfall today is expected to boost both the inflows and spill rate over the next 24 hours.

“Based on the current forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology the upper range of that peak spill forecast remains 240-400GL/day tomorrow,” WaterNSW said.

“However the lower end of that projection seems more likely at this stage, given the less-than-expected rainfall in the previous 24 hours.”

By comparison, last Thursday’s peak spill rate reached 315GL a day and during last March 2021’s flood (it seems an eon ago), the peak spill reached 440GL a day. Sydney Harbour holds about 500 GL, for comparison.

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Liberal MP Dave Sharma says Taiwan is in a “different category” to Ukraine, adding that the response to a potential invasion of Taiwan would result in a different reaction from the US and its allies.

Sharma told Sky News that operations to defend the island would be more substantial than the the response to the war in Ukraine:

The United States sent a very high-level delegation to Taiwan just last week, I think it should show people that Taiwan is in a different category here to Ukraine.

That doesn’t mean that the people are any more or less deserving of protection, but in terms of US strategic interests, and what a conflict would look like, Taiwan would not be a repeat of Ukraine in any sense.

I think the involvement of outside powers would be significantly larger, and the military operation would be significantly more difficult as well.

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AEC to launch disinformation register

The Australian Electoral Commission has announced it is launching a disinformation register ahead of the coming federal election.

The register will record all the different pieces of disinformation the AEC addresses, including information about the platform it was spread on, the timing, the factual information regarding the matter and AEC actions taken to correct the record.

Australian electoral commissioner, Tom Rogers, said in a statement that the register was the newest tool the AEC will be using to combat misleading and deceptive information about how elections are run.

We’re not messing around.

False information about the free, fair and secure election process that has operated in Australia for many years can do significant damage to public trust.

The register is a searchable database of mistruths the AEC has identified about Australian election processes – ranging from the sophisticated to the ridiculous.

The message here is simple: the AEC will not tolerate the spread of misinformation or disinformation about our electoral system, no matter the source.

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Labor accuses PM of marketing ploy over submarine base announcement

Labor has accused Scott Morrison of a marketing ploy by announcing the three sites that have been shortlisted for a new base for nuclear-powered submarines. The opposition is also crying foul about the government’s rejection of a “bipartisan consultation mechanism” on Aukus.

The prime minister will use a Lowy Institute virtual event today to argue a “new arc of autocracy” is forming to reshape the world (a version of George W Bush’s “axis of evil” 20 years ago) and he will pledge to build a new base for nuclear-powered submarines on Australia’s east coast.

The new base, to be built in Brisbane, Newcastle or Port Kembla, will “enable the regular visiting of US and UK nuclear-powered submarines”, Morrison will say, according to speech notes distributed by his office to the media in advance.

Defence has reviewed 19 potential sites and narrowed them down to three preferred locations. Defence has now been authorised to engage with the New South Wales and Queensland governments, and local governments, to “begin negotiations on what will be an enormous undertaking”. It remains unclear exactly when Australia will have its own nuclear-powered submarines as part of the Aukus deal with the US and the UK.

Labor’s defence spokesperson, Brendan O’Connor, says Morrison has “taken a leaf out of his marketing playbook by making an announcement about a decision that will be made in 2023 and won’t actually be feasible for more than a decade after that”:

The suggestion for a base for nuclear-powered submarines is just another ploy from the prime minister to get a headline without providing any detail of how this will be implemented or even when it will be delivered …

Of particular concern, the prime minister notes that an ‘arc of autocracy’ is threatening the rules based international order, yet under this government we have seen a failure to deliver the defence assets our country needs to keep us safe, with a host of contracts over budget and facing years of delay.

Shadow Defence Minister Brendan O’Connor speaks to the media during a press conference in Melbourne
Shadow Defence Minister Brendan O’Connor speaks to the media during a press conference in Melbourne Photograph: Luis Ascui/AAP

O’Connor says even though the timeframes for the proposed naval base span several terms of government, and the fact we are on the eve of the next election, the Coalition government “has not yet chosen to brief Labor on developments on strategic decisions”.

Federal Labor supports the Aukus partnership and offered a bipartisan consultation mechanism, but this was rejected. Despite claiming they would keep Labor updated, we haven’t had a single update from the Morrison-Joyce government on this strategically important decision, which is, quite frankly, appalling. Given we are so close to an election, it’s in Australia’s national interests that the alternative government is kept fully briefed.

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The NSW premier has been making the media rounds this morning, appearing on Channel 10, Channel 7 and Channel 9, in addition to his appearance on ABC earlier this morning, responding to the disappointment that flood-affected communities feel towards the government response.

Dominic Perrottet told Channel 9 he was “very sorry” that residents were disappointed in the lack of support they received, and said the government was doing “everything it can”:

[We‘re] very sorry, but we’re doing everything that we can.

We‘re getting supplies in, we’re getting food in … some of those areas will look back at this and say it could have been done better but we are where we are right now, and we’re doing absolutely everything we can to provide care and support for those who need it, to get those essential supplies in.

The premier again alluded to “logistical difficulties” in getting some communities the support they need:

Earlier on in the week, well, last week, we had issues getting aircraft into the sky, just because of the dangerous conditions that were there.

There are logistical difficulties with all of this, but it is all hands on deck to get the clean-up done, to get supplies in, and that’s happening right now.

The damage from the Murwillumbah flood becomes evident after the flood water has receded.
The damage from the Murwillumbah flood becomes evident after the flood water has receded. Photograph: Jay Penfold/The Guardian

He told Channel 7 there were more than 2,000 homes that were uninhabitable, and that mental health support, compensation and other services would soon come.

There will need to be a review in relation to ensuring that this doesn’t happen again. I don’t want anyone, regardless of how unprecedented a flood or fire is, to ever feel like that.

Finally, he told Channel 10 that “labour shortages” had also affected the delayed government support:

Before the flood, we had issues with labour shortages. We are going to need substantial labour coming into these local communities to help build the roads, to help build the bridges, to get businesses back on their feet as quickly as possible.

Updated

AGL Energy shares have opened lower, as expected, after the company rejected the revised takeover offer of $8.25 per share.

The stock, which last traded on Friday at $7.43, lost 10 cents at the open, or about 1.4%.

The company’s shares had traded at $7.16 prior to Canadian asset manager Brookfield and tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes lobbing an unsolicited bid at $7.50 a share last month.

It remains to be seen if the shares will drop back to the pre-bid levels, with the company no doubt hoping investors will reconsider their doubts about the firm’s plan to split into two by July.

Read more of the deal and its rejection here:

Updated

I’m hearing inflows into Lake Burragorang behind Warragamba Dam are running at a daily rate of 111 gigalitres and dropping.

That’s promising because it means the spill rate over the dam may not increase much more and may start to decrease.

As of last update from the government, the dam was spilling into the Hawkesbury-Nepean floodplain at a daily rate of about 166GL.

While the coast is expected to cop a dumping from the east coast low, rainfall further inland will be less.

If that’s what transpires, Warragamba may not get to the worst-case scenario of spilling 400GL a day, which was forecast yesterday.

Updated

I just want to return to the prime minister’s comments earlier this morning on 2GB, where he was pushed by host Ben Fordham on where the support for flood-hit communities is.

The PM alluded to something the NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, said, that some areas are “inaccessible”:

There are difficulties getting into a lot of these places currently. I mean, the ADF just can’t [magically] get through things that you can’t get through to get to a particular location. That’s why they’re using the helicopters and other supports. That’s why they’re doing road clearing.

I mean, we are in the worst of this disaster up around Lismore at present, the worst of it. And that means there’s always difficulties, whether you’re a fully advanced developed economy or not.

The PM said 2,000 ADF personnel were on the ground in both NSW and Queensland, adding that they are “increasing every day”.

These are terrible, terrible floods. These are floods that we have not seen in living memory. So I can understand the great frustration you’re seeing expressed.

At the same time, there is an enormous effort that is being put in to get everywhere that people can get to. But the rescues continue, the food drops continue, the road clearing continues.

Updated

Nationals deputy links Japanese encephalitis spread to climate change

So David Littleproud was on RN Breakfast earlier this morning, discussing fears around Japanese encephalitis, adding that its spread is due to climate change.

He said there were 42 different piggeries that have been affected, with the disease contracted by pigs from mosquitoes and passed onto humans.

The Nationals deputy said the government is rolling out a vaccine against the disease, and that it needed to be taken seriously:

It’s still a little too early, but we are monitoring closely. The fact it has spread across the eastern seaboard … says that this is a real threat we need to take seriously.

Symptoms are very much like flu … it’s important you present to health officials as early as you can.

It’s because of the changing climate … the waterways in which migratory birds have been able to come south is one of the reasons.

Updated

The shadow minister for communications, Michelle Rowland, has told Sky News the government should “put to work” the $4.8bn Emergency Response Fund in supporting flood affected communities.

The government has so far only put aside $150m for disaster mitigation projects, with the fund accumulating $800m dollars in interest.

It’s sitting there earning interest. Who knows what could have been done in terms of some sort of either flood mitigation or some important expenditure that could have made a difference in this case?

And I think the fact that not a cent of it seems to have gone for these purposes, you can understand why people are asking the question: why? Are you even trying?

Updated

Peter Hannam’s weather update is up now, with SES spokesperson Shellie Smyth telling him the next three days will be challenging:

We’re asking everyone to be extra vigilant over the next three days.

Probably Tuesday would be the major impact if an east coast low actually develops over New South Wales.

In the past 24 hours, the SES has conducted 38 flood rescues, including 14 in Sydney.

There are still eight evacuation warnings in place across NSW, with the BoM saying “six-hourly rainfall totals between 70 and 120 mm are possible”.

Updated

Victoria records 5,645 new Covid cases and two deaths

Victoria is reporting 5,645 new cases overnight and two deaths.

227 people are currently in hospital with Covid, with 29 in ICU and 7 on ventilators.

Updated

NSW records five deaths from Covid, 9,017 cases

NSW has reported 9,017 new Covid cases and five deaths overnight.

There are 43 people in ICU, among 1,066 hospitalisations.

Updated

As expected, AGL Energy has formally rejected the takeover bid by billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes and Canadian asset manager Brookfield, posting an ASX statement this morning.

AGL, the country’s largest electricity generator, received a revised bid late on Friday, offering $8.25 a share, up from an initial unsolicited bid of $7.50 a share.

The new offer, which raised the value to more than $8.5bn, “is still well below both the fair value” of the company and its expected value.

Brookfield and Cannon-Brookes through his family company, Grok Ventures, have indicated that they would walk away from the offer if AGL rejected it a second time, as reported last night. “They just didn’t engage,” is how one person put it.

Cannon-Brookes, who had pledged to invest $20bn as part of the plan to close AGL’s three coal-fired power plants by 2030 – as much as 15 years faster than AGL’s own schedule, also made it clear he was “pens down” on another offer.

More formal statements are expected from Brookfield and Grok this morning. The takeover, if it had gone ahead, would have been the world’s biggest decarbonisation effort, the suitors claimed. AGL is Australia’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

AGL’s shares, which closed at $7.43 on Friday, can be expected to drop when trading resumes later today. They had been at $7.16 when news of the initial bid landed last month.

Updated

Police confirm crash on Harbour Bridge

Returning to the accident on the Sydney Harbour Bridge, NSW police have confirmed that three vehicles were involved in the incident, with one car catching fire.

Police said three vehicles had crashed around 7.10am this morning, causing one of the cars to flip and catch fire.

Police say the fire was then extinguished by Fire and Rescue NSW.

Two of the drivers, a man and a woman, were treated at the scene by paramedics, with both taken to hospital for non-life-threatening injuries.

The third driver was trapped in his van and was freed by rescue operations. He was taken to St Vincent’s hospital in a serious but stable condition.

Officers from Sydney City Police Area Command established a crime scene, which will be examined by specialist police from the Crash Investigation Unit.

An investigation into the circumstances surrounding the crash is underway.

Updated

Queensland police have confirmed a man in his 60s has died overnight, after being swept away by flood waters at MP Creek near Wondai.

Police said initial investigations indicated that a car was swept off the crossing at the creek just before 5pm last night.

They say a woman was able to get free of the vehicle and hold onto a tree branch, before being assisted to safety.

A woman in her 60s was able to get free from the vehicle and hold a tree branch.

Members of the public then assisted her to safety, she was treated by paramedics on scene.

A man in his 60s who was also in the vehicle was located deceased around 9pm by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services swift water rescue.

Updated

Sticking with politicians making the media rounds this morning, deputy PM, Barnaby Joyce, has conceded there are “problems” in the flood responses, but said they will “learn” from the disaster.

Speaking to Sunrise, Joyce said the government “understands” the frustrations locals have been feeling:

Obviously, we always take onboard and make sure we fix [things] if we have not done things to the level that people want. We understand that.

We are not walking around saying that there are no problems. If there are problems, we will find them and fix them.

I understand the pressure people are under ... it’s just incomprehensible.

Updated

Turnbull criticises 'transparently political' submarine base plan

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has criticised the government’s plan to build a submarine base in either Brisbane, Newcastle or Port Kembla.

Speaking on RN Breakfast, Turnbull called the plan “transparently political,” and an attempt to win votes in the lead-up to the federal election.

What Mr Morrison is trying to do is to make an announcement which he will hope that Labor will disagree with and then he will say that the Labor Party is not strong on national security.

I mean, really, this has descended into farce.

I think it’s exactly the worst thing that we should be doing in the face of the threats we face.

Updated

Perrottet says some flood affected areas 'couldn't be accessed'

The NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, was just on ABC News, acknowledging the frustration of flood affected communities at the lack of support they have received.

Perrottet conceded that authorities could have “planned better” but said that “some of these communities couldn’t be accessed,” adding that it has been an “unpredicted, unprecedented catastrophe”.

14.5m flood levels – we’ve never seen anything like it. Many of our communities up here were isolated, we couldn’t get into them during the torrential conditions. We weren’t able to fly into some of those communities. We had many people who were cut short of essential supplies. So, look, we will obviously review all of that.

And you’ve got to plan for the worst. And once we move through, we’ll look back, reflect and review and make the changes necessary, and be completely honest about what could have been done better, and how could things be better-coordinated when these phenomenal events occur.

The premier said many homes and businesses will need to be rebuilt, but when pushed on whether some will be relocated based on flood danger, Perrottet would not say.

My sense is that we will obviously rebuild in areas where it’s safe to do so. To date already, we’ve had about 3,500 inspections of flood-damaged homes, and around 2,000 of those already are not habitable, so they will need to be rebuilt. And as we rebuild homes, as we rebuild businesses, we will need to do so in a way that ensures that when the next flood occurs that we have less damage.

The focus right now, if you’re on the ground here, is getting this town back on its feet and doing the clean-up. I mean, there are so many aspects we have to work through at this point following such a catastrophe.

But to sit here and start doing policy on the run, in terms of where we’re gonna – how we’re gonna rebuild a town – when we’ve got so much destruction on our streets, we have roads and bridges that have been flooded and washed away.

Finally, on whether the federal government’s $4.8bn Emergency Response Fund should be spent on flood mitigation, Perrottet said he would always welcome more help:

I’ll take any financial support we can have from the federal government ... We’re not going to spare a dollar from a state government level to get all our communities and all our people back on their feet, and to come back stronger than we were before.

I must say I’ve had very strong engagement and positive engagement with the prime minister in relation to the support they will provide.

If you’re gonna use that fund for a disaster, you’re not gonna get a bigger disaster than this one. I mean, what has occurred up here is an unprecedented catastrophe.

Updated

On the incident on the Sydney Harbour Bridge, there appeared to be an accident that has caused backed up traffic.

A car accident on the Sydney Harbour bridge has lead to delays for commuters, Australia
A car accident on the Sydney Harbour bridge has lead to delays for commuters, Australia Photograph: David Munk/The Guardian

We heard reports of an explosion and a fire on the bridge, although it appears to have been put out already.

Traffic delays due to the fire on the Sydney harbour Bridge after a multiple car accident. NSW, Australia.
Traffic delays due to the fire on the Sydney harbour Bridge after a multiple car accident. NSW, Australia. Photograph: Seven News

Updated

Good morning

Good morning, Mostafa Rachwani with you this morning, and for the start of another week of rain.

The prime minister, Scott Morrison, was up this morning, saying an “enormous effort” going into flood recovery, adding that it was an almost it was an “unimaginable” situation.

He described the floods as like “nothing in living memory” and said he understood the “great frustration” that residents have expressed at the recovery efforts.

The PM added that the military is “continuing to roll in” to the flood affected regions, including up to 2,000 personnel reportedly deployed.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued severe weather warnings for the Mid North Coast, and parts of South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands and Northern Tablelands, with heavy rainfall still expected for much of eastern NSW heading into Tuesday.

Flood warnings are still in place for NSW Coastal Rivers from the Northern Rivers to the South Coast, including Shoalhaven River at Nowra and Terara, at the Hunter River and Wollombi Brook at Bulga, Singleton, and Maitland.

There are also minor flood warnings for the Hawkesbury river at Nepean Valley and Colo River.

There are also reports of a car on fire on the Sydney Harbour Bridge due to an accident, and we will bring you more details on that as it emerges.

Last night, severe weather warnings were in place across south-east Queensland, with Brisbane, Beenleigh, Cleveland, northern Gold Coast and Straddie seeing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

There are reports a man’s body was found in his car after he was swept off a flooded crossing in the South Burnett region late yesterday, the 12th death in the state since the floods hit.

The warnings and coming rain has affected clean-up efforts, with all eyes on the effects the weather will have on communities already devastated.

In politics, we are expecting the PM to announce a base for submarines between Wollongong and Brisbane sometime this morning.

Meanwhile, AGL Energy yesterday rejected a higher takeover bid from tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes and Canadian asset manager Brookfield, potentially seeing off the unsolicited bid.

There is still much about, so let’s get stuck in.

Updated

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