With that forecast for the days ahead (it does not look at all good, I’m afraid), we will close this blog now. Many thanks for your company, comments and correspondence. Be well, all of you.
The last word, today, must go to SK Warne. Teaching Kevin Pietersen all about Ashes cricket...
Vale.
More rain, hail and winds forecast for NSW coast over coming days
We know the next few days are turning wet again for the NSW Central Coast. Before then, there’s some wild weather around, with inland parts of NSW currently facing the threat of severe thunderstorms.
Large hailstones have been added to the “intense rainfall” and damaging winds that have been forecast for much of eastern Australia in the past week or so. That’s potentially bad if you’re between Dubbo and Bega.
Meanwhile, the bureau’s forecast for Sunday-Tuesday looks like some more heavy rain in the Sydney basin, such as in the Penrith area:
Here are a couple of reasons why @BOM_au sees a renewed risk of major flooding in western and northern Sydney in coming days: Here's the Penrith forecast: pic.twitter.com/nwvdaei6Uq
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 5, 2022
Flooding on the Nepean part of the Hawkesbury-Nepean was a problem a couple of days ago, and could be again.
Meanwhile, down the river at Richmond the forecast falls are almost as big (as they are in Sydney itself):
And Richmond's forecast is also not very promising (left) and Sydney's not much better, from Sunday to Tuesday: @BOM_au pic.twitter.com/m52JtPJOUV
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 5, 2022
As you can see in this warning, the Hawkesbury could be back at major flooding levels having dropped back below them today:
The Hawkesbury-Nepean River at Windsor is back below major flood level, but @BOM_au warns of a rebound. Now at 10.41 metres and falling, it may climb back to major flood level (12.20 m) during Tuesday. "Further rises are possible."https://t.co/3xvSGIW0rO pic.twitter.com/lSaggDABrB
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 5, 2022
Adding to all that local rain and runoff (everything is saturated) will likely be more spilling from Warragamba Dam.
The gauge at the dam – which is about 80% of the city’s reservoir capacity – collected 237mm in 48 hours last week to start spilling at the peak daily rate of 315,000,000,000 litres (or 315 gigalitres).
Cumulated falls in the Sunday-Tuesday period may come close to those totals:
And what might be making things worse is more spilling from Warragamba Dam into the Hawkesbury-Nepean. It's still spill and the coming days' forecast for sizeable rain mean a lot more inflows are likely to be on the way: @BOM_au pic.twitter.com/0k4WDpdlwo
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 5, 2022
In short: renewed evacuation warnings and orders might not be too far off.
Updated
