Goodbye from us
We’ll be wrapping up the live blog for now. Thanks for staying with us this Sunday. The blog will be back tomorrow morning. Goodnight and stay safe.
Queensland LNP spies hope for a revival in federal by-election win
Queensland’s Liberal National party is unlikely to deviate from the key issues of cost-of-living, health and crime as the major parties jostle to contextualise the Fadden by-election.
With the next state election 15 months away, the LNP opposition leader, David Crisafulli, told reporters on Sunday that he was keen to cast the result as proof of a disconnect between governments and voters.
The message that Queenslanders sent overwhelmingly was for governments, both here and in Canberra, to do a hell of a lot better than what they’re doing.
He mentioned cost of living as a key issue affecting people alongside the health and crime matters his party consistently highlights from opposition.
There is a disconnect with those issues and a government … not willing to admit the crisis situation that they’re in.
The Labor camp has a different interpretation of a likely two-party preferred swing of between two and three per cent for the victorious LNP candidate, Cameron Cardwell.
The Queensland state transport minister, Mark Bailey, said in a tweet on Sunday the two per cent swing in the comfortable LNP seat is “extraordinarily low” by historical standards.
Especially with such an unpopular retiring MP in Stuart Robert and a decade-entrenched local councillor replacing him.
The Fadden result follows Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s dismissal of polling data showing the Queensland government was on track to lose next year’s election.
- AAP
Updated
Director James Cameron waters down rumours of Titan sub film
James Cameron has debunked the rumours that he is working on a film about the recent implosion of the OceanGate submersible, an accident that took the lives of all five people on board, and called the claims “offensive”.
The director and noted deep-sea expert tweeted an impassioned note to followers on Saturday after the Sun published a report titled: “DIVE DEEP Titanic director James Cameron in talks with major streaming network to create drama series on doomed Titan sub.” The piece claimed that an “insider” told the publication that Cameron “is first choice for director” of a film about the events on the Titan submersible.
“He told the story of the Titanic so compassionately it feels like a natural step for him to take this on. Retracing the steps of those on board the Titan is a massive undertaking but there would be a lot of time, money and resources dedicated to it,” the so-called insider said.
In his response, Cameron said he doesn’t “respond to offensive rumors in the media usually, but I need to now.”
I’m NOT in talks about an OceanGate film, nor will I ever be.
For more on this story, read the full report by the Guardian’s Jenna Amatulli:
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Hottest 100: Like a Version edition votes DMA’S cover of Believe as no 1
Triple J’s Hottest 100 Like a Version has counted down the best covers in the studio’s weekly live segment for the first time.
Proving that some classics endure, DMA’S cover of Cher’s Believe took out the top spot.
The runner up was Denzel Curry with his cover of Rage Against the Machine’s Bulls on Parade.
In third place was Ocean’s Alley’s cover on Baby Come Back.
Read the full wrap by Christopher Knaus here:
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Unemployment expected to rise as labour market widens
The number of people out of work is expected to rise when the latest unemployment numbers are released on Thursday.
The unwavering strength of the labour market has surprised many economists, with the jobless rate tightening again in May to 3.6% from 3.7% in April.
There was also a massive 76,000 jobs added to the economy.
That’s despite a string of interest rate hikes since May last year, which is expected to lead to some job losses as businesses cut staff due to lower demand for their offerings.
Forward-looking indicators such as job advertisements and vacancies also point to a looser labour market.
Applications per job are back to pre-pandemic levels, according to data collected by employment marketplace SEEK.
Commonwealth Bank economists expect the jobless rate to inch higher to 3.7% for June, with an additional 15,000 jobs pencilled in.
The data will be a key input into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next interest rate decision on the first Tuesday in August.
The central bank kept interest rates on hold in July and the language on further increases from outgoing governor, Philip Lowe, has lost some potency.
The minutes from the last meeting, due for release on Tuesday, will dig deeper into the July decision and rationale for pausing the rate cycle.
Meanwhile, the Australian share market could open flat on Monday after Wall Street ended mixed on Friday.
- AAP
Updated
South Australia moves towards banning no cause evictions
Landlords won’t be able to evict tenants from their rentals in South Australia without cause under the government’s proposed rental reforms.
If they go ahead, landlords would only be able to end a periodic tenancy or not renew a fixed-term lease for a prescribed reason.
Those reasons include breaches by the tenant, wanting to sell, renovate or occupy the property.
The SA Labor government also wants to increase the minimum notice to end a tenancy from 28 days to 60 days, so tenants will have more time to secure a new home and make the necessary arrangements to move.
The reforms are being proposed in response to the state’s record low vacancy rate of less than 1%.
They would also allow tenants to keep pets in rental properties, with reasonable conditions to be set by their landlord such as keeping the animal outside.
The minister for consumer and business affairs, Andrea Michaels, said housing insecurity was a real concern for many South Australian tenants who feared becoming homeless if their lease was terminated.
Our reforms are seeking to address this and provide tenants with additional security in their rental home while still enabling landlords the opportunity to end a tenancy for valid reasons.
The government will soon begin talking to stakeholder groups on the proposed reforms ahead of a bill being to be introduced to parliament later this year.
- AAP
Updated
Victoria introduces gambling harm minimisation reforms
Mandatory closing hours, slower spin times and smaller spending limits will be used to minimise gambling harm in sweeping gaming reforms across Victoria.
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, and the minister for casinos and gaming, Melissa Horne, on Sunday announced a series of reforms for electronic gaming machines (EGMs) across the state.
Under the reforms, EGMs in Victoria will require mandatory pre-commitment limits and carded play.
Load up limits, how much money an individual can put into an EGM at a time, will be capped at $100, down from the current limit of $1,000.
These changes are expected to be in place by the end of the year.
By mid-2024, mandatory closure periods will be enforced for all gaming machine areas in a venue, excluding Melbourne’s Crown Casino, between 4am and 10am.
The government will also make it mandatory for all new EGMs to spin at a rate of three seconds per game, slowing the pace of the game down and limiting the amount that can be lost.
Andrews said it was important for his government to make the changes.
These reforms will provide the strongest gambling harm preventions and anti-money laundering measures in Australia.
We owe it to all Victorians to take this stance and help those experiencing harm turn their lives around.
- AAP
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‘Nobody knew’: how Emily Suvaal came to recount her fight with anorexia in NSW’s parliament
Emily Suvaal vividly remembers the smell of the adult psychiatric unit to she was admitted at age 16 for treatment of anorexia.
She recalls the lino flooring, the metal-framed bed, the hole in her door where the lock had been removed, the 12-foot-high metal fence she attempted to climb over during a desperate and futile escape plan and the fear.
These were details the newly elected Labor upper house MP shared during her 26-minute first speech in the New South Wales parliament.
“I really agonised over whether to or whether or not to include that personal detail,” she says, from her new Macquarie St office.
“Really, nobody knew. Nobody in this building would have known.”
Her closest political allies, former colleagues and friends didn’t know her story. Even her husband learned things that day.
There are a few very graphic memories that I have … but it felt fairly important to include them because they form such a large part of who I am, but also why I’m here.
For more on this story, read the full feature story by NSW state correspondent Tamsin Rose.
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Almost 600 people charged after NSW domestic violence operation
A NSW police operation targeting the state’s most dangerous domestic violence offenders has turned up illegal firearms and guns.
The four-day operation, dubbed “Amarok III”, resulted in 1107 domestic violence charges being laid against 592 people.
Some 139 were amongst NSW’s most dangerous offenders and 103 had outstanding warrants for violent offences.
Some of those charged also face other serious offences including prohibited firearm and weapon possession, drug possession and supply.
Police seized 22 firearms and 40 prohibited weapons, as well as various types of illicit drugs located with 89 detections.
The NSW police deputy commissioner, Mal Lanyon, said on Sunday more than half the state’s murders are domestic violence-related.
Amarok elevates our focus on those offenders who often display the dangerousness and violence of organised crime figures and the fixation of terrorists.
During the operation, which ended on Saturday, police engaged with high-risk domestic violence offenders on 1169 occasions.
They made 315 applications for apprehended domestic violence orders (ADVOs), served 500 outstanding ADVOs, completed 4882 ADVO compliance checks and 1465 bail compliance checks.
Officers also conducted 116 firearms prohibition orders searches at properties linked to those who are subject to such orders.
Each year, NSW police receive more than 139,000 calls for assistance and deal with more than 33,000 domestic-related assaults.
- AAP
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US thinktank wants Australia to be bolder about calling out ‘corruption’
A US thinktank wants Australia to act more actively against Chinese influence in the Pacific by calling out “corruption”.
The Hoover Institution is a right-leaning thinktank that promotes “private enterprise” and “personal freedom”. Larry Diamond, the co-lead of its China Global Sharp Power Project, said Australia needed to take a more assertive role in the Pacific.
Speaking to reporters on an international reporting tour sponsored by the Foreign Press Centre, which is part of the US Department of State, Diamond said China’s actions in the Pacific have “sobering implications for freedom and transparency”.
We need to mobilise better intelligence to expose the corruption.
These are still democracies and exposure can be very damaging to them.
Diamond says Pacific nations should work together to protect democratic norms against China’s desire for “control, control, control”. He also said China was working to replace the US in the Pacific and called for better intelligence gathering.
He said the goal should not be to turn Pacific island nations into satellite states but rather to protect their sovereignty.
Just to keep them independent and let them determine their own future.
The future of these Pacific island states is absolutely crucial to what kind of Asia-Pacific and what kind of world we’re going to be living in.
- AAP
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Mandatory code for gas code won’t lower prices; welcomed by gas producers
The federal government’s mandatory gas code of conduct for producers may now be law but a loophole in the code means it will have no effect on supplies already under contract.
An emergency price cap took effect in December after the whopping gas price increases that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when some businesses faced a quadrupling of energy costs.
The competition watchdog advised that a cap of $12 per gigajoule would be reasonable, noting almost all (96%) of domestic wholesale offers made in 2021 were below that level.
The mandatory gas code of conduct extended the $12/GJ price cap until 2025, but that’s a wholesale, not a retail price.
Under the code export contracts aren’t included, short-term supply and smaller producers are also exempt and a new explicit exemption for liquefied natural gas imports has been added.
With most production locked into international contracts, Australia could soon be importing more LNG for domestic use - outside the code.
A spokesperson for Woodside welcomed the release of the mandatory code of conduct for the eastern Australian gas market.
Woodside remains committed to investigating all available options to maximise supply of gas to the eastern Australian market, including opportunities for LNG imports.
The CEO of analytics firm EnergyQuest, Rick Wilkinson, said with all the exemptions, it’s reasonable to ask how much gas is actually subject to the price cap.
The answer is not much right now – we estimate it at approximately 6% of total east coast production (which includes LNG), but a more material 21% of domestic supply.
- AAP
Updated
A tale of two parties: the Fadden byelection in images
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Sussan Ley on appointment of Michele Bullock: a ‘sound’ choice for RBA
The deputy Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, also told Sky News on Sunday that the choice of Michele Bullock to lead the Reserve Bank of Australia was “sound”.
Great to see a woman from rural Australia.
The issue is ... the government is not doing their job.
They need a plan that kills inflation and we don’t want them to continually turn and point to the RBA.
The RBA has been steadily raising the cash interest rate since May last year to the current 4.1%, to rein in too-high inflation.
- AAP
Updated
Coalition to target ‘Albo-nomics’
After a win in the Fadden by-election, the federal Coalition will go on the attack against the Labor government’s economic policies in a blitz of federal seats.
The deputy Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, told Sky News on Sunday that she will spearhead the campaign, starting in treasurer Jim Chalmer’s Queensland electorate of Rankin, before travelling up the state, and then visiting Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia.
Ley said that since Labor was elected to government in May 2022 it had squandered a crucial window to tackle high inflation with its “big tax and big spend approach”.
Australian families are hurting. Every time they go to the checkout, reach the next mortgage repayment or see a new bill come in, the costs are piling up, crushing families and smashing small businesses.
Most Australians are feeling that pain, that feeling that things are getting harder. Well, I can tell Australians who to blame – blame Albo-nomics.
Ley plans to visit 17 seats across four states in the final fortnight of the federal parliamentary recess.
This is really tough, and we need a government with a proper plan.
- AAP
Updated
Treasurer to attend G20 meeting of finance ministers and central banks in India
A little more on the treasurer, Jim Chalmer’s, trip to India to attend the G20 meeting. Here’s the official statement that was released regarding the trip:
This week I will join international counterparts in India as part of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meetings in Gandhinagar.
The global economy is a challenging environment right now.
Over the next two years, global growth is expected to be the weakest in over two decades, outside of the GFC and the pandemic.
As nations continue to grapple with the challenges of high inflation and slowing global growth, now is an important time to convene with my colleagues.
In my engagements with the G20, I will outline how Australia’s responsible economic management has helped us build a much stronger foundation from which we can help people and invest in the future; update counterparts on our important efforts in sustainable finance to boost investment in cleaner, cheaper energy and make Australia a renewable energy superpower; and highlight the need for collaboration and coordination in the G20 efforts to deal with the global inflation challenge and build a stronger, more resilient and sustainable global economy.
Australia is not immune from the uncertainty in the global economy but with more Australians in work than ever before, record high labour force participation and wages growing in welcome ways, we are better placed than most other nations to deal with the challenges ahead of us.
This meeting will give us new perspectives on global economic challenges and help us ensure that we continue to carefully calibrate our budget and our economic plan to the challenges we face in the future.
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Global economy pressures ‘felt around kitchen tables’: treasurer
The treasurer is asked about his upcoming trip to the G20 finance ministers meeting in India along with Philip Lowe. He says it will be an important moment to coordinate with his counterparts to focus on the global “pressures” that are “being felt around kitchen tables”.
Understanding what is happening in the global economy is central to making sure that our economic policies are aligned with the conditions we are talking about. What is happening now is the pressures coming at us from around the world are being felt around kitchen tables. We need to understand that a big part is understanding how we can best align our policies with what is happening around the world. We want to make progress on sustainable finance with investing in the energy transformation and that the Pacific is front and centre in the world considerations about climate change and other things. We want to progress on multinational tax reform. All these issues are important.
Chalmers is also asked about data coming out of China that suggests a weakening economy. He says the government is monitoring these developments “very closely”. He says the global economy is “precarious” with the US, China and Europe all struggling.
As always we try to take things into consideration, this global uncertainty is having implications here. Combined with the impact of the rate rises, it’s one of the reasons we do expect the Australian economy to slow considerably.
And that’s a wrap.
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Labor has ‘a role to play’ in cost-of-living assistance: Chalmers
On the role of government to help with cost-of-living relief, Chalmers says Labor has “always acknowledged we have a role to play”.
That’s why we have the first surplus in 15 years, our predecessors were unable to do that. We have done that because we have banked so much of the upward revisions to revenue. We found $40bn in savings, we are providing cost-of-living relief. All the things are important. If our economic plan and our next budget in May needs to take into consideration a different set of economic conditions, obviously we will do that, too.
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‘Textbook fiscal policy’ from Labor about getting economy ‘in nick’
Chalmers is asked whether it’s possible to control inflation without the unemployment rate growing further.
Remains to be seen.
The treasurer says the RBA’s twin objectives are “price stability and full employment” which is “deliberate” and that Labor’s “textbook fiscal policy” has helped smooth the way.
We’ve got the budget in better nick, not the expense of the economy but in addition, and cost-of-living help is targeted in out-of-pocket health costs, electricity, rent and some particular pressure points. We found $40 billion of savings over two budgets compared to zero in savings in the last Liberal budget.
So all of those things are about get getting the economy in nick at the same time we provide help for people to get through through a difficult period.
As governor Lowe said, our budget is taking the edge off inflation rather than adding to it, which is important. If down the road we need to do something differently or extra, we contemplate that.
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Unemployment rate expected to rise slightly in coming months
Asked about a recent speech where Bullock flagged that a higher unemployment rate of 4.5% would have the economy as a “sustainable balance point”, Chalmers says there is a debate ongoing about “what full employment is, whether it’s 4.5 or a little lower.”
The point that Michele Bullock was making in that speech, which, again, I think is relatively uncontroversial, is that as the Reserve Bank forecast and the treasury forecasts, have inflation moderating in coming months, they have a tick-up in unemployment. I’ve been upfront. The challenges in the economy are unsubstantial, globally and domestically, I think the slow-down is expected in the forecasts to be significant. That will have implications for the unemployment rate, which is the point that Michele Bullock was making.
A note here that in economic thinking the people who make up that 4.5% unemployment figure are supposed to be compensated through the social security system, but the rate of those payments remain below the poverty line.
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Will a new RBA head mean change in inflation policy?
Chalmers is asked about whether the new appointment will signal a shift in how the RBA approaches inflation – specifically what home buyers and home owners can expect for the futures.
The treasurer says he won’t pre-empt decisions by the RBA but trusts that Bullock and her expertise will get it right in the future.
I‘m not going to pre-empt the decisions that Michele Bullock might recommend to the board. I think that’s really important. This is a long standing and cherished feature of the Reserve Bank, that it is independent. Michele Bullock is fiercely independent. She will undertake this task with professionalism and diligence, drawing on all the experience and expertise.
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New governor will run Reserve Bank with ‘substantial experience and expertise’
On Bullock’s character and how she may conduct herself as government, Chalmers says Bullock is “fiercely independent” and “carries a lot of respect and regard.”
The outgoing Reserve Bank governor, all consider this to be a good appointment. That’s because Michele is an outstanding economist, a respected leader. I think that she will run the Reserve Bank in a really inclusive way and she will run it with gravitas and heft and drawing on that substantial experience and expertise she has accumulated over a long time.
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Bullock will weigh up ‘all the evidence’ before independent decisions made
Chalmers says he understands why “people under pressure want to understand why these [interest rate] decisions are being taken” and that the “Reserve Bank has an important role to explain the decisions they take”.
Chalmers says he has confidence the new governor will “take the decisions independently” after weighing up “all the evidence in the economy”.
They will explain that decision and sometimes they will have to defend that decision. That won’t change when the governor of the Reserve Bank changes.
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Chalmers has ‘mountain of respect’ for Philip Lowe following new RBA governor’s appointment
Chalmers says the decision to appoint Michele Bullock as the ninth governor of the Reserve Bank was “more about how we take the bank forward rather than any one decision or another that’s been taken in the past.”
I cherish the Reserve Bank’s independence. I’m looking to invest in that independence rather than undermine or diminish it. So, this was never about really one person or really any of the decisions taken in the recent past or any of the commentary. It’s because Michele Bullock, I think, has the best combination of attributes to take the bank forward. She’s an outstanding economist, a respected leader. I’m really proud of the I a point we made Friday.
Chalmers says the decision had absolutely nothing to do with Philip Lowe’s popularity, saying he has a “mountain of respect” for the former governor.
I mean it. I’ve worked closely with him, known him for a long time. He has carried himself with characteristic dignity and professionalism throughout, including, by the way, saying that Michele Bullock’s appointment was a first-rate appointment. I appreciate that. This is more about the future than the recent past.
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Jim Chalmers says Fadden result ‘entirely what was expected’
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is on the ABC’s Insiders this morning, sharing Labor’s read on the Fadden byelection.
Chalmers said the result is “entirely what was expected” and that the party is “neither surprised nor troubled by the outcome”.
If anything, the LNP underperformed against the historical average, after spending more than half a million dollars on the seat which we think was probably at least ten times what Labor spent on the seat. Unsurprising, untroubling, congratulate the new member. This was entirely what we expected.
On whether there are any lessons for Labor, such as a need to focus on material issues particularly in Queensland, Chalmers concedes “it’s been hard yards in Queensland for some time” but notes the seat was a bastion of LNP support.
There are opportunities for Labor here in Queensland. I think Queenslanders do respond well to the type of leadership that Anthony provides. This was hardly Labor heartland, this seat on the northern Gold Coast, which has been very, very difficult for us for a really long time. I think broadly, there are opportunities for Labor in Queensland. We do need to perform much better here at the federal level. Obviously, as resident Queenslander, I’m very focused on that.
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‘Ridiculous’ for Dutton to take comfort from ‘lethargic’ Fadden byelection win
The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, has played down the small swing against Labor at the Fadden byelection yesterday, saying it is “half the average swing that you would expect against a sitting government”.
But Marles said it would be “ridiculous” for the Liberal leader, Peter Dutton, to take any comfort from the result.
The byelection in the LNP’s safe Gold Coast-based seat was caused by the resignation of former minister Stuart Robert. The LNP candidate, Cameron Caldwell, won the seat. The LNP enjoyed a swing of about 2.4% after preferences, according to the latest count.
In an interview with Sky News this morning, Marles said Labor was outspent six to one in the campaign. Asked whether it was a wakeup call for the government about the cost of living, Marles said Labor was “really focused about the cost of living” and he added: “we get it that Australians are hurting”.
But Marles took aim at the idea that the result gave Dutton’s leadership some breathing space:
To have a byelection against a sitting government where you only get a 2% swing in an area which is in your heartland is a very, very lethargic result indeed for the opposition …
At the end of the day, this is half the average swing that you would expect against a sitting government. We listen to the electorate, we listen to what’s going on and we will continue to do so and we do not take anything for granted here – we could not be more focused on the question of the cost of living. But the idea that Peter Dutton, as a Queenslander who is leading the Liberal party, would take any comfort out of this result at all frankly is ridiculous.
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Fadden byelection provides much-needed win for Peter Dutton
The Liberal opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has been given some breathing room with the LNP comfortably retaining its safe Gold Coast seat of Fadden.
Labor, which had debated whether to even run a candidate in the poll, went into the byelection expecting the LNP to win – it was always about by how much.
The count continues, and with 13 candidates the vote was a little messy, but there was no question the LNP candidate, Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, would win, and win easily.
The swing looked like settling around 2 to 3% to the LNP. That wiped out what Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro had managed to claw from retiring member Stuart Robert in the 2022 election, but sits around the traditional swing against governments in byelections.
But it was a much-needed win for Dutton, who saw the party lose a byelection to a government for the first time in more than a century in Aston, as well as the Victorian and New South Wales elections.
For more on this story, read the full report by Guardian Australia’s Amy Remeikis:
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Good morning
And welcome to another Sunday morning Guardian Australia live blog.
The Coalition has claimed victory in the Fadden byelection. LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell easily retained the safe seat after the contest was triggered when his predecessor, Stuart Robert, suddenly resigned from parliament. The byelection was widely read as a test for opposition leader Peter Dutton’s leadership.
I’m Royce Kurmelovs, taking the blog through the day. With so much going on out there, it’s easy to miss stuff, so if you spot something happening in Australia and think it should be on the blog, you can find me on Twitter at @RoyceRk2 where my DMs are open.
With that, let’s get started ...
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