The Australian government may delay the announcement of a 2035 climate target until after the February deadline and beyond the next election, in part due to uncertainty about the ramifications of the US presidential election.
Some big emitting countries are lagging in developing their 2035 emissions reduction targets, which under the Paris climate agreement are due before the UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil, in November next year.
Major investors said they were comfortable with countries delaying target announcements if it meant they did the work to make a commitment that was “aligned with science” and reaching “for the highest possible level of ambition”.
The Investor Group on Climate Change said Australia’s target should also be based on the advice from the Climate Change Authority. The authority has suggested Australia could meet an “ambitious” target of cutting emissions by at least 65% and up to 75% below 2005 levels by 2035, but is yet to make its final recommendation.
Globally, governments are watching the US election before finalising their 2035 commitments. Observers believe Kamala Harris will quickly announce a target if successful but Donald Trump, who has called the climate crisis a “hoax”, has said he would again pull the US out of the Paris deal.
The climate change department’s website says Australia’s updated global climate commitment – called a “nationally determined contribution” – including the 2035 target was due by the end of February 2025.
But the investor group’s director of policy, Erwin Jackson, said the ultimate political deadline for the 2035 target was just before the Belém conference. Jackson said the US election would decide whether that country would be a target pacesetter.
“A Harris presidency would likely see the US continue to exert pressure on all countries, including Australia, to set a strong 2035 target as soon as possible,” he said.
“A Trump presidency would see the US leave the field and create a climate leadership vacuum internationally for a few years.
“Countries will still come forward with new 2035 targets, but this might be delayed as new climate leadership coalitions are formed.”
Jackson said setting targets and putting in place policies to achieve them required a lot of work, and a delay was reasonable if it led to greater ambition. “A Trump presidency will not change the fact that solar, wind and other renewable energy is the cheapest form of electricity generation,” he said.
Matt Kean, the new chair of the Climate Change Authority and former New South Wales Liberal treasurer and energy minister, was asked on ABC radio on Thursday whether the 2035 target should be announced before the election. He said the authority would be making recommendations based on scientific and economic data, but the government needed to also “take into account the geopolitical environment”.
“Obviously, the results of the American election will have an impact,” he said. “So we need to make sure that we have all the evidence available to us before we provide advice.”
He said other countries would be expected to step up if Trump was elected. “We’re expecting countries in Europe, across the Asias, to do more of the heavy lifting,” he said.
Kean was releasing a report by the authority advising the government on what needs to happen in different parts of the economy to cut climate pollution. It said getting to net zero would depend heavily on the power sector, which needs to both rapidly cut emissions and double its output to support increased demand for green electricity.
Tennant Reed, the director of climate change and energy at the Australian Industry Group, said the US election result would be important for Australia “in setting its emissions target and so much else”.
He said a short delay could be justifiable but an announcement was needed to allow action “in the very near term” that would deliver cuts between 2030 and 2035.
“It is understandable if the government ended up wanting to take a little more time to get its ducks in a row, but you can’t just cogitate on it too long because the range of targets you can achieve starts to narrow as time slips away,” he said.
Progress on 2035 targets has been slow in some other major countries, including the European Union. The presidency of the EU is held by Hungary, led by its ring-wing prime minister, Viktor Orbán. It will pass to Poland in January, and to Denmark in July 2025.
Reed said an announcement next year by China – easily the world’s biggest emitter – on its 2035 target and an update on its 2030 goal would be vital in deciding whether keeping global heating well below 2C would be achievable.
China has previously promised that its emissions would peak by 2030 and “reach carbon neutrality” – net zero – before 2060.
The Albanese government has legislated targets of a 43% cut by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, and net zero by 2050. The Coalition has said it would scrap the 43% target if it won government, and not announce a replacement until after the election due by next May.
Reducing or scrapping the 2030 target would put Australia at odds with the Paris agreement, which says countries will build on commitments over time and each announcement will be a progression towards dealing with the problem.
Asked about the 2035 target, a government spokesperson cited expert advice that the cheapest and fastest way to meet targets and secure energy supplies as coal plants closed was to build renewable energy.
The authority report identified six barriers Australia needed to overcome if it was to reach net zero. They were: an unwillingness to pay a “green premium” for goods, slow and complicated development approval processes, a lack of social licence for new technology in some areas, supply chain constraints, workforce shortages, and data gaps.
