The latest update from Unesco on the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area has been widely misreported as a decision to not place the reef on the world heritage “in danger” list. In reality, Unesco has simply postponed the next consideration of an in-danger listing until the 2024 meeting of the world heritage committee.
Unesco has acknowledged some recent improvements reported to them by the commonwealth and Queensland governments, such as a promised ban on gill nets as well as some additional investments in culling starfish and small-scale reef restoration. But buried deep within the diplomatic language of Unesco’s latest assessment is an acknowledgment of the slow speed of progress being made on meeting targets for reducing coastal pollution, and of Australia’s inadequate responses to the escalating impacts of climate change.
The global agency “notes with utmost concern” that the reef has experienced four mass coral bleaching events due to extreme temperatures since 2016. The latest one, in 2022, occurred for the first time during La Nina conditions – because the tropical sea temperatures experienced during La Ninas are now hotter than they were 30 years ago.
Next Australian summer, in early 2024, the return of an El Niño all but guarantees another severe heatwave driven by anthropogenic heating. In the past month, many coral reefs in the northern hemisphere have already experienced record summer sea temperatures. Coral restoration projects in Florida have been destroyed by lethal levels of bleaching as the summer continues to unfold.
The elephant in the room in Unesco’s update is Australia’s equivocation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Unesco acknowledges that earlier this year the commonwealth loudly rejected Clive Palmer’s proposed coalmine adjacent to the reef. However, Australia continues to quietly permit other giant new fossil fuel projects, despite the impacts of escalating anthropogenic heating on all world heritage properties. The prime minister has so far rejected any chance of a moratorium on new coal and gas projects, and the commonwealth has approved three new coalmines in the past two months.
Unesco is struggling with how to deal with the impacts of climate change on world heritage properties, and the development of its policy document on climate action for world heritage is agonisingly slow. Australia continues to argue that climate change impacts should never be the basis for an in-danger listing, a view that is shared by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other fossil fuel-producing nations.
Earlier Australia argued it is being “singled out” by Unesco’s in-danger recommendation for the Great Barrier Reef. Is that true? After all, anthropogenic heating is caused by emissions from all countries.
Firstly, Australia is not being singled out. The science is clear – the Great Barrier Reef is in danger, and the world heritage value of the reef has declined sharply since its inscription in 1981.
Second, an in-danger listing is not a punishment. Instead, the purpose is to identify the causes of decline in world heritage value, and to resolve them. An in-danger listing can be reversed later, provided threats are adequately addressed. The Morrison government successfully lobbied individual members of the world heritage committee to ignore Unesco’s recommendation for an in-danger listing in 2021.
Ironically, the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area itself has become a superhighway for exporting coal and gas, with ongoing support from Queensland and the commonwealth – for as long as it is profitable. Australian governments oppose an in-danger listing because it would pressure them to reduce the massive emissions generated by multinational fossil fuel companies.
Third, unmitigated climate change is a grave threat to tourism on the Great Barrier Reef, which supports about 65,000 jobs and generates more than $5bn in earnings each year. In the Galápagos Islands, a period of being listed as in-danger had no impact on tourism.
Finally, Australia continues to have one of the highest per capita emission levels in the world. Unlike many developing countries with coral reefs, Australia has the wealth, technology and resources to sharply reduce domestic and exported greenhouse gas emissions. Until this happens, Australia cannot claim that it is doing all that it can to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
Unesco has again asked Australia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement, and produce yet another progress report by 1 February. In all likelihood, the seventh mass coral bleaching event since 1998 will be well under way by then.
• Terry Hughes is a distinguished professor at James Cook University, specialising in coral reef science. He is a frequent advisor to governments, Unesco and NGOs in many countries
