Australia’s plan to host a major UN climate summit in 2026 has hit a Turkish roadblock. It is unclear how long it will last.
The Albanese government had expected that its bid to co-host the Cop31 summit in partnership with Pacific island nations – a Labor promise since before it won power in 2022 – would be agreed by now, as the UN climate talks in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku approach their final stages.
A decision this week would give Australia and its island partners two years to prepare for what is a huge undertaking, hosting tens of thousands of people and leading the negotiations between nearly 200 countries over what should be done to combat and survive the greatest threat facing people and the planet.
The bid for what its backers call “the Pacific Cop” has the support of nearly all of a group of 29 largely western European countries that are responsible for the decision this year (hosting rights are shared between five country groups on a rotational basis). Eleven – including the UK, Germany, France, the US and Canada – have expressed their backing publicly, while it is understood 12 have offered private support.
But decision-making at the UN works by consensus. And Turkey – the only other country vying to host Cop31 – is resisting pressure for it to leave the race.
The annual Cops – short for “Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change” – are the major event on the climate diplomacy calendar, with negotiations between government officials running alongside a massive trade fair for green industries.
It is a frustrating and flawed process, but its supporters say the Cop system has led to progress amid its stumbles – most notably the landmark 2015 Paris agreement, which helped boost green energy investment. Climate activist and business organisations believe hosting a local Cop could have a similar galvanising effect in fossil fuel-reliant Australia.
There had been an expectation from some Australians earlier this year that the Cop31 rights was close to a done deal. But in the lead-up to Cop29 in Baku it became apparent that Turkey wasn’t planning to step aside.
It prompted the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, to detour via Ankara on the way to Baku to meet with the Turkish minister, Murat Kurum, in an attempt to land a deal. It was the fifth meeting between Bowen and his Turkish counterparts on the issue. Australia offered Turkey a role at Cop31 leading events on buildings resilience, recognising its recovery from the twin earthquakes that killed 55,000 in its country and Syria in February last year.
But Turkey declined, and did not make a counter offer or request. Kurum later posted on X that his government had emphasised to Bowen it remained determined to host the summit, and was well placed because it had an “ability to create a link between developed and developing countries” and was logistically ready.
A few days later Anthony Albanese raised the issue in a meeting with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil. Turkish media reported that Erdoğan reinforced that his country would not withdraw its candidacy.
Other reports quoted Turkish representatives suggesting it should win the hosting rights because, unlike its rival, it was not a major fossil fuel exporter – and that Australia would be going into a period of uncertainty as it is due to hold a federal election by next May.
Australian and Pacific ministers have increasingly pushed back, saying there was rising concern that if the issue isn’t resolved this week it would delay preparations for what is seen as an important event.
Bowen told the Guardian he was respectful of the Turkish bid but “clarity would be good for everyone involved – us, Turkey and all the parties, particularly our Pacific colleagues, who are very excited about the opportunities”.
Asked about Turkey referencing Australia’s coal and gas trade – it is the third-largest dirty fuel exporter, and continues to approve expansions – the minister said he would not comment on Turkey’s fossil fuel use, pointed to his government’s ambition to be a “renewable energy superpower” and argued: “Of the 29 Cops, six have been held in the southern hemisphere, 23 in the northern hemisphere. It’s time.”
Other supporters of the Australia-Pacific bid have pointed out Turkey’s contribution to climate pollution, including its role selling “camouflaged” Russian oil to the European Union in a relationship that helped Moscow bypass sanctions after it invaded Ukraine.
The Turkish delegation at Cop31 refused an interview request from the Guardian, and declined during an interview with Reuters to name members of the Western European and Others regional group of countries that were supporting it.
Pacific leaders, who are not members of the Western European and Others Group, have become more vocal in their support of the joint bid even while some government representatives from the region urged Australia to make a more rapid shift away from fossil fuel.
The president of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr, used his national address to the plenary at Cop29 to say “very much hoped” the Australia-Pacific would be declared the successful bid before delegates left Baku this weekend. He said “those involved in this decision” should “not deny the Pacific this rare opportunity to help host what is the most important international forum for our future”.
Bowen has taken a similar tone. Giving Australia’s national statement on Tuesday, he framed the case around the Pacific perspective, saying the climate crisis was “not seen as a subject for negotiation, but an existential and security threat” and that “this is a message that the world needs to hear, and a reality that the world needs to see”.
There are only a few planned days of Cop29 left, though it is almost certain to run into overtime. After that, a deal could still be landed and formally confirmed at a smaller UN climate meeting during next year.
Failing that, the decision could hang in the balance until November next year, when climate delegates gather again – in Belém, a Brazilian city on the Amazon River, for Cop30.
