For most of the day, Pat Cummins under duress held things together. First it was in the face of Joe Root’s early onslaught, one that would have been withering not just for its rate of scoring but the cheerfully insouciant air with which it was carried out. England had piled on 49 runs in 39 balls before Cummins produced magic, the quintessential booming yorker that swung in at Vin Diesel pace and demolished Ollie Pope’s off stump.
Root carried on with Harry Brook, at times making Cummins rejig the field every few balls, while also bowling a seven-over spell to start the day. Despite Brook laying into Nathan Lyon, Cummins backed his spinner and kept enough fielders up, letting Lyon dislodge both batters for 46 each.
So far so good, an on-field reflection of his pre-match words when asked about keeping cool if England reached the boil: “There’s going to be some moments of tension for everyone, which is exciting. You hopefully have a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and at times you just go on your gut. There’s going to be high pressure moments but you wouldn’t want to be anywhere else but out there in the middle of it.”
He was in the middle constantly, as England kept swinging. And when he resumed bowling after lunch, he struck, some brilliance from around the wicket to nail Ben Stokes on the pad. England’s talisman of attacking cricket followed the exit of Jonny Bairstow, another for Lyon. England led by 217 with only the bottom four to hand.
That’s where things went awry. Captaincy is a hard game, routinely judged in hindsight, but the bouncer-only plan to tailenders has failed enough times before that it can fairly be questioned in advance. Sure, Moeen Ali nailed a couple before gloving one to the keeper. But at times to follow, Ollie Robinson and even Stuart Broad had a ring of players on the boundary, waiting for a shot flapped their way.
Runs were easy in singles. Fielders came up, dropped back. Cummins wore criticism for defensive fields on day one, but that had a tactical application against England’s aggressive top order. For No 10 it was something else. Among the confusion, England added 63 runs after Stokes was out, including 44 from the stands between Broad, Robinson and James Anderson. It took the target from a comfortable 218 to a more challenging 281.
Australia may yet run it down on the fifth day, three wickets down for 107 at stumps. If they do, it will be a significant effort. Recent years have seen a surge in large chases: Sri Lanka in Durban, West Indies in Chattogram, Pakistan in Galle. Several have been against Australia: England at Headingley, India in Brisbane, and earlier this century, the two highest chases ever of 418 and 414. What we haven’t seen is an Australian team doing any of the chasing. They’ve tended to win by a distance or lose by the same.
The last time an Australian team chased a target near this week’s one at Edgbaston was on Cummins’ debut, when South Africa set 310 in Johannesburg in 2011. The 18-year-old hit the winning runs while batting with Mitchell Johnson, eight wickets down.
Since then Australia have had 39 fourth-innings chases. Sixteen have been won, half of those with a target in double figures, and only two exceeding 200. The highest is the 231 in the Boxing Day Ashes Test of 2013, when Shane Watson and Chris Rogers made it look easy against an England side that had already lost three matches.
There have been two draws when the target was beyond reach: Usman Khawaja’s Dubai epic of 2018 that spanned most of two days, and a lucky escape through two sessions when Jofra Archer was firing at Lord’s in 2019.
The other 21 attempts at a target in that time have failed, ranging from 188 set by India in Bengaluru to the fanciful 632 by a ruthless South Africa in Perth. The attainable ones include 241 against New Zealand in Hobart, 299 to concede the 2013 Ashes in Durham, 268 and 324 on the 2016 tour of Sri Lanka, 265 against Bangladesh in Mirpur, and the narrowly missed 323 when India visited Adelaide in 2018.
Which is all to say that making scores like 281 batting last is difficult work, whatever the conditions, whatever the opponent. Even more so when Stuart Broad goes off on one his tears in the last hour of a day, with the crowd behind him and the light draining from the sky. The pressure ratchets up as each wicket falls.
Rain is forecast for the fifth day, but hopefully not enough to ruin a finish. Either team could get the job done within a couple of sessions of play. If England end up on the losing side, people will no doubt point to their first-day declaration and the chance of runs foregone. If Australia lose, one might well point to the hour when they let England’s tail thrash away.
