The phased withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) began earlier this year and is scheduled to end in December 2024.
The withdrawal of African Union (AU) peacekeepers poses risks for Somalia. For one, it may reduce the pressure on al-Shabaab at a crucial time during the Somali government’s latest offensive. These risks cannot be completely eliminated but there are important steps the Somali authorities and the AU must take before the mission’s exit.
The withdrawal of the AU troops hands a battlefield and propaganda advantage to al-Shabaab. Beyond that, it reduces support for Somali forces trying to wage an offensive. There is also a risk that Somali forces garrisoned in former AU operating bases might be particularly vulnerable to al-Shabaab attack.
