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All eyes have been on Minnesota over the past two weeks, as clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement in Minneapolis have turned violent and President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to invoke the Insurrection Act to address the protests.
That threat, via the president’s social media platform Truth Social, came hours after a federal agent shot and injured a man who the Department of Homeland Security said was trying to evade arrest. That followed a fatal shooting by an ICE agent last week and a renewed focus from Republicans on a statewide fraud scandal over social service programs that led to Gov. Tim Walz backtracking on his reelection plans.
All these events could help shape this year’s elections in the North Star State.
Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are locked in a fight for the state’s open Senate seat — one that could stretch until the August Democratic primary. Flanagan has criticized Craig for her vote last year on a measure known as the Laken Riley Act, which allowed for stricter punishments of undocumented immigrants who commit crimes in the United States.
Craig, meanwhile, has joined other House Democrats in calling for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, a move that Flanagan also backs. Craig was also part of a delegation, along with fellow Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar and Kelly Morrison, that reported being denied access to an immigration detention facility, our colleague Chris Johnson wrote.
Republicans see an opening in a state where they haven’t won a statewide election since 2006. A national Republican operative said the fraud scandal could be a liability for either Flanagan or Craig.
But Republicans will still need a strong nominee if they want to make the race more competitive than other recent Senate elections in Minnesota. Former NFL broadcaster Michele Tafoya is expected to decide whether to run for the seat by the end of the month. Candidates already seeking the GOP nod include 2024 Senate nominee and former NBA player Royce White, former state Sen. David Hann and former House candidate Tom Weiler.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates Minnesota’s Senate race as Likely Democratic.
Starting gate
Looking ahead: From candidate selection to messaging to redistricting, both parties have a lot to figure out for this year’s midterm elections. We look at six essential questions that will be answered in the months to come. Our primary calendar provides an overview of key dates and races.
Fish, family and the Last Frontier: Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola announced her run for Senate, boosting her party’s hopes of a competitive race against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. But Peltola, a moderate who previously served as the state’s at-large House member, still faces an uphill battle in the deep-red state.
Populist message: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is encouraging her fellow Democrats to lean into populism, our colleague Savannah Behrmann reports. “It is not enough to simply attack Trump,” she said in a speech at the National Press Club. “Democrats need to earn trust — long-term, durable trust — across the electorate.”
#FL02: Rep. Neal Dunn announced he will retire at the end of the year, opening up a safe Republican seat on the Florida panhandle. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power and businessman Keith Gross have both since announced campaigns for the 2nd District.
Family affair: Democrats have a new recruit in their quest to hold Maine’s Trump-voting 2nd District: state Sen. Joe Balducci. His brother, John Balducci, previously held the seat for four terms before serving two terms as governor.
Gerrymander OK: A panel of three federal judges in California declined to halt the state’s new Democrat-drawn congressional map, our colleague Michael Macagnone reports. The 2-1 decision rejected claims that the new lines were racial gerrymanders. The California Republican Party said it would appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, which last month let Texas keep its new Republican-drawn map.
ICYMI
Redistricting moves: Democrats in the Virginia House took another step toward asking the commonwealth’s voters to consider a new congressional map for this year’s elections. The redistricting measure approved Wednesday will next be taken up by the state Senate, which is also controlled by Democrats, ahead of a likely April statewide special election. Democrats are eyeing gains of up to four seats in Virginia under potential new lines.
Not running: Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn, the Democrat who lost a closer-than-expected special election last month, said she won’t make another bid for the Middle Tennessee seat this year and would instead seek reelection to the state House.
#MD05: Maryland Del. Adrian Boafo has launched a campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Steny H. Hoyer in the 5th District. Former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn, who built a national profile after helping to defend the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and ran for Maryland’s 3rd District last cycle, is weighing a run.
#ILSEN: Illinois Future, a newly formed political action committee, is beginning to go up on air to support Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s Senate campaign. The group is led by Quentin Fulks, a campaign strategist who previously advised Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
Buckeye State launches: Madison Sheahan, a top Noem ally and the former No. 2 official at ICE, has joined the crowded GOP primary field in Ohio’s battleground 9th District, which is currently held by longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Leetonia Mayor Kevin Siembida is seeking the Republican nod to challenge Democrat Emilia Sykes in the 13th District, which became bluer in redistricting. Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner Kristina Knickerbocker kicked off her run for the 10th District, one day after the current occupant of the seat, Republican Rep. Michael R. Turner, announced his reelection bid. Meanwhile, union ironworker and Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter launched his bid against Republican Rep. Max Miller in the 7th District.
More battleground updates: A pair of Republicans are dropping their bids to unseat Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th District. Both Fred Hinojosa and Scott Mandel are throwing their support behind Army veteran Eric Flores, who has Trump’s support. In New Jersey’s 9th District, attorney Tiffany Burress, the wife of former NFL wide receiver Plaxico Burress, has joined the Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou. And Virginia’s crowded Democratic primary to take on Republican Rob Wittman is down a candidate, with Lisa Vedernikova Khanna dropping her bid for the 1st District this week.
RIP: Former Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a 2022 Senate candidate, died at 59 after a heart attack. Former New Jersey acting Gov. Richard Codey, the state’s longest-serving legislator, died at 79 after a brief illness.
Building a bench: A new group dedicated to building the “next bench of Democratic leaders” launched Thursday with a slate of endorsements. The Bench is backing Senate candidates Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, James Talarico in Texas and Josh Turek in Iowa, as well as 11 House contenders.
#CA01: Republican Assembly Member James Gallagher is running to fill the remaining term of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who died last week. Gallagher, who has the backing of LaMalfa’s widow, Jill LaMalfa, told Sacramento’s Fox40 that he hasn’t decided whether to run for a full term in November. The district grew significantly more favorable to Democrats under the state’s new map, although the special election, which Gov. Gavin Newsom has yet to schedule, is expected to be held under the current lines.
#NY12: Anti-gun-violence activist Cameron Kasky has ended his bid for the Democratic nomination in New York’s open 12th District. In a social media post, Kasky said he would instead focus on stopping violence in the West Bank after a recent visit to the area. His exit comes days after public health activist Nina Schwalbe became the latest Democrat to enter the primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler.
Taking on the dean: Republican operative Kevin R. Smith is launching a primary challenge against Rep. Harold Rogers in Kentucky’s 5th District, The Lexington Herald-Leader reports. At 88, Rogers is the most senior and the oldest voting member of the House and is currently serving his 23rd term.
Endorsements: Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed former NFL kicker Jay Feely in the open race for Arizona’s 1st District. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the latest progressive to endorse former union organizer Analilia Mejia in the special election for New Jersey’s 11th District. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani threw his support behind state Assemblymember Claire Valdez in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez. And Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger is backing former Rep. Tom Perriello for his old seat in the 5th District.
Guv roundup: Wyoming school superintendent Megan Degenfelder entered the race for governor, days after winning a precursory endorsement from Trump. In Florida, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is joining the Republican primary to succeed his term-limited boss, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed him as his second-in-command last year. Trump has endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds in the race. Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist has dropped his bid for governor and will instead seek the Democratic nomination for secretary of state. And former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey announced her campaign for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont in Connecticut. She previously ran for New York governor as a Democrat in 1998. Former Connecticut state Rep. Harry Arora, who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Rep. Jim Himes in 2018, is exploring a GOP gubernatorial bid.
Nathan’s notes
Senate Democrats have had a handful of recruiting wins this cycle, with Peltola’s decision to run in Alaska being the most recent.
But, as Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections writes, the path to a Democratic majority remains fraught. To flip the chamber, they need a net gain of four seats, including all but one in Trump-won states. But Republicans in 2010 may have offered Democrats a playbook, according to Nathan.
What we’re reading
Stealth bestseller: The most popular political book of the year isn’t some earnest tome by an ambitious politician or a journalist’s dishy account. Rather, it’s “How to Test Negative for Stupid: And Why Washington Never Will” by Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy. According to The New York Times, the book, which has been on the Times top 10 bestseller list for 13 weeks, is part explainer on “the vast weirdness of the Senate” and part peek behind the curtain on the personalities that animate modern American politics.
Fired-up billionaires: A one-time tax on California’s billionaires is already generating controversy, even though the measure has yet to qualify for the November ballot. The San Francisco Chronicle digs into the nuts and bolts behind the proposal.
Move over, Gavin Newsom: In Illinois, Pritzker is ramping up his efforts to troll Trump online. Capitol News Illinois takes stock of the Democratic governor’s growing social media footprint, which could be a prelude to a 2028 presidential campaign.
Incomplete and not total endorsement: Three Republican senators up for reelection this year haven’t won Trump’s backing: Susan Collins of Maine, John Cornyn of Texas and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. And the president has no plans so far to change that, Politico reports.
Silent Generation: NBC News looks at the 24 members of Congress who are 80 or older and finds that more than half are seeking reelection.
The count: 45 percent
That’s the share of American adults, a record high, who identified as political independents in 2025, according to Gallup. Republicans and Democrats drew 27 percent of respondents each.
The findings released Monday show the continuation of a trend away from the two major parties. In 2004, that figure for independents was at an ebb of 31 percent, with more people identifying as Democrats or Republicans. Since that time, the number of independents has steadily climbed.
Majorities of Gen Z adults (56 percent) and millennials (54 percent) identified as political independents in 2025, as did more than 4 in 10 Gen X adults. Only one-third or fewer of baby boomers and those born before 1946 saw themselves as politically independent.
The Gallup findings had mixed news for Democrats hoping to win back at least one chamber of Congress this year.
When respondents, independent or not, were asked which party they leaned more toward, they picked Democrats over Republicans 47 percent to 42 percent.
But Democrats have hemorrhaged voters over the past couple of decades. The 27 percent currently identifying with the party is a low, according to Gallup, down from a high water mark of 36 percent in 2008. Democrats’ favorability ratings are also among the lowest in the survey’s history.
— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
The ranks of the nation’s female governors is set to grow in the coming days, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger scheduled to be sworn in Saturday as Virginia’s 75th governor and the first woman to lead the commonwealth. On Tuesday, her former House colleague, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, will take office as New Jersey’s second female governor and its 57th governor overall.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Spotlight Minnesota appeared first on Roll Call.
