We know Donald Trump is poised to return to the White House with a Republican-held Senate, but at this point, control of the House is unclear, with several swing seats hanging in the balance.
Both parties were waiting for key House races to be called, although Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted Wednesday morning the GOP would hold the House.
“As more results come in, it is clear that, as we have predicted all along, Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House,” Johnson said.
Democrats flipped seats in New York, while Republicans did the same in places like Michigan and North Carolina. Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority are pinned on Western states such as California, Oregon and Arizona.
As of Wednesday morning, Democrats had flipped two seats in New York: The 22nd District, where John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams, and the 19th District, where Josh Riley defeated Rep. Marc Molinaro, both Republican incumbents who were first elected in 2022. A third New York Democrat, Laura Gillen, who was running in the 4th District, declared victory over Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito early Wednesday, although the Associated Press had not called the race at press time.
Democrats also flipped seats in Alabama, where Shomari Figures won a seat redrawn by a federal court. And a Democrat appeared set to flip a Louisiana seat that had also been redrawn this year under a court order.
Michigan Republican Tom Barrett flipped an open seat that Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin vacated to run for Senate. Republicans flipped three seats in North Carolina that had been redrawn this election cycle by the GOP legislature, which had been expected.
Democratic Rep. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania conceded the 7th District on Wednesday morning. Her opponent, Ryan Mackenzie, led by 1.4 percentage points with 99 percent of the vote counted, according to the AP. In the nearby 8th District, Republican Rob Bresnahan had a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, a longtime GOP target, with 99 percent of the vote in.
In Nebraska, Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who represents the 2nd District, where Vice President Kamala Harris won the electoral vote, was leading Democratic challenger Tony Vargas by 2.8 percentage points in a yet-uncalled race with 99 percent of the vote counted. On X, formerly known as Twitter, Bacon claimed the win.
Both parties had braced for a potentially long wait for official results in House races ahead of Election Day.
On the Senate side, the question Wednesday was how large Republicans’ majority would be, with races uncalled in five competitive states.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., declared victory around 5:30 a.m. on Wednesday. The AP has yet to call her race, but she led by 0.9 percentage points with 99 percent of the votes counted as of press time.
In Michigan, Slotkin pulled ahead of former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers on Wednesday morning, but 0.1 percentage points separated the two with 98 percent of the vote in at press time. Austin Cook, Slotkin’s communications director, said Wednesday morning that they anticipated a win.
“With more results being counted in Wayne County, Elissa has taken a lead of almost 20,000 votes, and our margin will continue to grow as the remaining ballots are processed,” Cook said.
Republican Dave McCormick led in Pennsylvania, another Senate race the AP has yet to call. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s campaign maintained that he still had a path to victory.
“There are more votes that need to be counted in areas like Philadelphia and it’s important that every legal ballot will be counted. When that happens we are confident the Senator will be re-elected,” Maddy McDaniel, a spokesperson for the Casey campaign, said in a statement.
Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent suggested that the remaining ballots in Nevada are likely to skew in favor of Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, allowing her to retain her seat and defeat GOP challenger Sam Brown.
Starting gate
First firsts: Delaware made history, electing both Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester to be the first Black woman to represent the state in the Senate (she already held that distinction for the House) and Democrat Sarah McBride to be the first openly transgender member of Congress. CQ Roll Call’s Jim Saksa has the story.
Glide-path caucus: They didn’t break much of a sweat winning, but there are a few incoming senators who will have enhanced national profiles because of what they have done so far, be it raising money, serving as an impeachment manager or governor, or being the first Korean American in the Senate.
Committee of two: Reps. Andy Harris, R-Md., and Bob Good, R-Va., used Election Day’s pro forma session of the House to kill a popular bill set for consideration this month that would repeal two long-standing provisions docking Social Security benefits for certain retirees. Among the 330 co-sponsors? Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
Edgy: Election Day was just the start of “a monthslong period of uncertainty” in Washington, D.C., particularly Capitol Hill, where the trauma of the violent Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection runs deep, CQ Roll Call’s Justin Papp reports.
Streak broken: Florida, South Dakota and Nebraska rejected efforts to expand abortion access, breaking a streak of ballot wins for abortion rights following the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to an abortion. In seven other states — Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New York and Nevada — voters approved measures to codify protections for abortion, CQ Roll Call’s Sandhya Raman and Ariel Cohen report.
The count: 20
Twenty is the number of years since a Republican presidential nominee won the popular vote. That was George W. Bush, in winning reelection in 2004 against then-Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass.
Coming up
Thursday’s regular edition of At the Races, this time with (we hope) more House race calls!
Photo finish
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