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Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has been in the Senate for only about 19 months, but that’s been plenty of time to get a sense of his legislative and policy views.
When Vance ran for the Senate to fill the seat opened by the retirement of fellow Republican Rob Portman, he was a first-time candidate. And his speech to the Republican National Convention on Wednesday night demonstrated just how different he is from his predecessor, who served as U.S. trade representative and director of the Office of Management and Budget in the George W. Bush administration.
“When I was in the fourth grade, a career politician by the name of Joe Biden supported NAFTA, a bad trade deal that sent countless good jobs to Mexico. When I was a sophomore in high school that same career politician named Joe Biden gave China a sweetheart trade deal,” Vance said. “When I was a senior in high school that same Joe Biden supported the disastrous invasion of Iraq.”
To cheers of “Joe must go,” Vance said, “Jobs were sent overseas and our children were sent to war.”
As a member of the House, Portman voted for NAFTA in 1993, voted for normal trade relations with China in 2000 and voted to authorize the war in Iraq in 2002 — votes that each had more support from Republicans than Democrats.
Our colleague Briana Reilly, who was in the arena in Milwaukee for Vance’s speech Wednesday night, reported on how the vice presidential selection solidifies the protectionism and isolationism of the Trump-led Republican Party.
With a sitting lawmaker on the Trump ticket, Reilly and the rest of the CQ and Roll Call team have been diving into the “Hillbilly Elegy” author’s policy prescriptions. Gopal Ratnam has a look at Vance’s tech policies, while Ariel Cohen looks at Vance’s track record so far on health issues, Aidan Quigley and Caitlin Reilly team up for a look at Vance’s views on taxes and spending, and Mark Schoeff Jr. analyzes how Vance has used his position on the Senate Banking Committee.
Starting gate
FEC numbers: Democrats in tough races have no shortage of cash at the moment, according to our analysis of the latest FEC filings. Nine Democrats in races rated Toss-up or Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections raised an average of $1.8 million each during the quarter and had an average of $3.3 million in their campaign accounts.
Payne primary: Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver prevailed in the primary to fill the unexpired term of the seat vacated by the death of New Jersey Rep. Donald M. Payne Jr. Democrats will pick the party’s nominee for the November election for the full term.
Menendez verdict: A federal jury found Sen. Bob Menendez guilty on 16 counts in a sweeping corruption case that included bribery, extortion and acting as a foreign agent, CQ Roll Call’s Ryan Tarinelli reports. The New Jersey Democrat, who filed to be on the November ballot as an independent, now faces increasing pressure to resign from his Democratic colleagues. If Menendez resigns or is expelled from the Senate, Gov. Phil Murphy said he would make a “temporary appointment” who would complete Menendez’s term, which ends in early January.
The shooting: After a 20-year-old with his father’s rifle opened fire on Trump, wounding him and killing one of his supporters, Biden delivered an Oval Office address condemning political violence and promising an independent review of the Secret Service. The service isn’t hurting for money, but it’s going to face intense scrutiny on the Hill.
Donkey in the room: Before Biden tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday and he headed back to Delaware, he and his team had been counterprogramming the RNC by touting billions for bridges and pushing for caps on rents. But the issue that drove the news at the end of last week (whether he should remain his party’s nominee for president) didn’t go away, especially after he called his vice president “Trump” at a high-stakes news conference. Rep. Adam B. Schiff added his voice to those calling on Biden to “pass the torch” on Wednesday. It’s doubtful he’ll be the last, although Biden’s supporters were arguing Thursday that it’s all a “family discussion” that will fade into the background.
RNC recap
CQ Roll Call’s Reilly, along with John T. Bennett and Jason Dick, are in Milwaukee, where they recorded this week’s episode of the Political Theater podcast. The At the Races team and our whole newsroom is also pitching in with additional coverage. Here are some highlights.
Day One: Trump’s appearance with a bandaged ear fired up the crowd in Wisconsin, a battleground state that’s used to being in the spotlight. The convention opened with questions about rhetoric fueling political violence, and our colleagues at Factba.se analyzed past Trump and Biden speeches using tools that flag harmful content. We also had an analysis of the day’s speeches from our friends at FactCheck.org.
Day Two: The GOP showcased former Trump opponents and leaned hard into public safety but couldn’t quite explain how calls for “unity” and chants of “fight, fight, fight” went together. The health team looked at what’s next for the party that got the Roe abortion precedent struck down. Candidates trying to flip the Senate had some time in the spotlight, but other swing-district Republicans skipped the party. And Factcheck.org found material to work with again.
Day Three: Vance got a chance to introduce himself to the country, while Bennett looked at some of the previous night’s brow-furrowing moments and FactCheck analyzed the night’s discussion of the economy, immigration and foreign policy.
Day Four: Should the typically bombastic Trump opt to dial things down during his prime-time address, it would offer a stark contrast to his first nominating convention way back in the summer of 2016.
ICYMI
Bernie endorses Cori Bush: Sen. Bernie Sanders backed incumbent Rep. Cori Bush in the hotly contested Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on Aug. 6, calling her “a strong fighter for the working class.” Bush is being challenged by Wesley Bell, who has the backing of the Democratic Majority for Israel, which launched a new ad backing him this week.
Campaign arm funds: The DCCC announced it raised $44 million in the second quarter of this year, including $19.7 million in June, which they said was a new record. The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, announced it would put $15 million into state parties in battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
#NESEN: Independent Senate candidate and labor activist Dan Osborn outraised his GOP opponent, Sen. Deb Fischer, in the most recent filing period. However, Fischer has more cash on hand: $3 million to Osborn’s $650,000. Osborn’s campaign is highlighting a May poll that put him 4 percentage points behind the incumbent, with 30 percent of voters undecided.
#MN02: Tayler Rahm, a Republican who was running to challenge Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, suspended his campaign to work as a senior adviser to Trump in the state. Rahm’s decision to drop out should clear the path for Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor who had a cash advantage and support from key House GOP leaders, to take on Craig.
New NY poll: New York GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro’s campaign shared a Cygnal poll with supporters showing Molinaro leading Democratic opponent Josh Riley by 9 points. The poll of 420 registered voters found 47 percent supported Molinaro and 38 percent backed Riley, with 14 percent undecided. The 19th District race has a Tilt Republican rating from Inside Elections and is one that Democrats are hoping to flip to take the majority.
Bold spending: Rep. Linda T. Sánchez, who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, criticized an outside group that spent more than $1 million against Raquel Terán, a former state senator running for the Democratic nomination for the open seat in Arizona’s 3rd District. “This is a blatant effort by an outside group to silence the voices of over half a million Latinos in a majority-Latino district in order to buy a seat in Congress,” Sanchez said in a statement.
What we’re reading
Great Lakes, great divide: They’re both upper Midwestern states known for their farms, forests and fondness for hotdish. But Wisconsin is a presidential battleground while Minnesota hasn’t backed a Republican for president since 1972. The Star Tribune of Minneapolis looks at the two states and the reasons behind their divergent political culture.
Primary postscript: Remember that mystery PAC that funded ads pumping up Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner prior to her May primary election against Janelle Bynum? The group, Health Equity Now, wasn’t required to disclose its donors before the primary, but The Oregonian dug into new filings with the Federal Election Commission and found that a Republican-aligned group, Winning for Women Action Fund, paid for the ads. The group has endorsed and raised money for Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the Republican incumbent in the race.
DNC details: The Democratic National Committee plans to hold a virtual roll call to nominate Biden for reelection during the first week of August, according to The Washington Post. Congressional Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, pushed to delay a vote from happening sooner.
The count: 13 points
That’s how much the percentage of Biden supporters who said they were voting mostly against Trump rather than for Biden increased over the past three weeks, according to the Economist/YouGov Poll. Asked June 23-25 whether they were “mostly voting for Biden” or against Trump, Biden voters were basically split, with 49 percent for Biden and 48 percent against Trump. Then the debate happened. Some Democrats started urging Biden to drop out, and he said he would not. In a poll released Wednesday that was taken July 13-16, the split on the same question was 38 percent voting mostly for Biden and 61 percent against Trump. For Trump voters, movement was in the opposite direction, with those motivated for Trump growing from 67 percent in June to 80 percent in this week’s poll, which was largely taken after the assassination attempt. While the election will be decided by electors state by state and not by a national vote, the two polls notably show very little swing in overall national preference. Biden and Trump were even, 42-42 in June, while Trump led 43-41 in the latest survey.
Nathan’s notes
Republicans from Washington, D.C., went to the convention pledged to support the winner of the district’s primary, Nikki Haley, which made it a bit awkward when the convention roll call came, Nathan reports. Inside Elections has also begun polling on key races and this week posted a look at the open seat in Michigan’s 7th District, where Republican Tom Barrett holds a “substantial advantage” over Democrat Curtis Hertel.
Key race: #KS02
Candidates: Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner’s announcement in April that he was leaving Congress to spend more time with his young children prompted seven candidates to jump into the race to succeed him.
The Aug. 6 Republican primary field includes former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, attorney and former congressional staffer Jeff Kahrs and rancher Shawn Tiffany. Two long-shot GOP contenders — Chad Young, the founder of a nonprofit for at-risk youth, and veteran Michael Ogle — are also running.
Nancy Boyda, who held the seat from 2007 to 2009, and Matt Kleinmann, a community developer who played basketball at the University of Kansas, are competing in the Democratic primary. Early voting began Wednesday.
Why it matters: The seat is the state’s only open congressional district in 2024.
Cash dash: Schmidt, who has broad name recognition from his 12 years as attorney general as well as an unsuccessful run for governor in 2022, raised the most money through June 30. His campaign brought in $430,000 and had $326,000 on hand. Kahrs, who was chief of staff to former Rep. Todd Tiahrt as well as a senior adviser to LaTurner, was close behind, raising $408,000, but that includes a $300,000 personal loan, which gave him a bigger bankroll on June 30 of $366,000. Tiffany raised $179,000 and had $115,000 on hand. Boyda raised $57,000. In 2008, Boyda declared that she would not seek help from the DCCC, a stance she said she regretted after her loss to Republican Lynn Jenkins.
Backers: Schmidt had Trump’s endorsement when he ran for governor two years ago, but the former president hasn’t publicly weighed in on the congressional race. Schmidt received support from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and posted $76,000 in contributions from PACs. Kahrs has the backing of former Sen. and Gov. Sam Brownback and former Rep. Jim Ryun.
What they’re saying: At a candidates’ forum that aired on WIBW, several of the Republicans highlighted their opposition to restrictions on firearms and criticized Biden’s handling of border security. Schmidt is campaigning on his record as attorney general, when he fought government vaccine requirements and sued to challenge the Affordable Care Act. Kahrs, who was appointed by Trump as a regional director of the Department of Health and Human Services, pledged to be “an outspoken ally of President Trump.” Tiffany has cast himself as an outsider and said securing the southern border, addressing federal overreach and fighting to end wokeness are among his top priorities.
On the Democratic side, Kleinmann says he’ll be a champion for working-class families by addressing high housing costs, “standing up” to pharmacy benefit managers and ensuring that employees have access to paid sick leave.
Boyda has portrayed herself as a bipartisan bridge-builder willing to break with her party. She was among the first Democratic candidates to publicly call on Biden to suspend his campaign and retire from politics, issuing a statement on June 28, one day after his poor performance in a debate with Trump. She also came out against policies allowing transgender athletes to compete on girls sports teams.
Terrain: The district covers most of eastern Kansas, including Topeka, the state capital. But when the district’s lines were redrawn in 2022, Republicans in the state legislature moved Lawrence, the left-leaning home to the University of Kansas, from the 2nd District to the more Republican-friendly 1st District. Redistricting also made the district more diverse by shifting parts of Kansas City from the 3rd District, which is represented by Rep. Sharice Davids, the sole Democratic member of the Kansas delegation, to the 2nd.
Wild card: The two long-shot Republicans vying for the seat both ended Tuesday’s candidates’ forum on a dramatic note. Young concluded his pitch to voters by announcing he was dedicating his final 30 seconds to God before bowing his head in silent prayer. When it was his turn, Ogle looked directly at the camera and pulled a ring from his pocket. “A good woman is all you really need,” he said. “A bad woman will put a man on his knees. And I found a good woman. So, Nikoe Pulley, if you’re out there, will you marry me?” Ogle told the Kansas Reflector she said yes.
Coming up
Democrats who want Biden to quit the race plan a “pass the torch” rally Saturday at 3 p.m. outside the White House.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: New guy on the ticket appeared first on Roll Call.
