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Roll Call
Daniela Altimari

At the Races: Let the market decide

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

The stock market recently reached new heights, and President Donald Trump’s most fervent champions wanted to discuss nothing more.

Attorney General Pam Bondi highlighted those gains during a testy hearing Wednesday before the House Judiciary Committee. “The Dow is over 50,000 right now,” she said after New York Democrat Jerrold Nadler blasted the Justice Department for failing to indict possible co-conspirators of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. “That’s what we should be talking about.”

Speaker Mike Johnson also praised Trump’s economic agenda, writing on social media that it has “EXCEEDED ALL expectations.”

“After four years of failed Bidenomics, President Trump and House Republicans are steering our economy into a true GOLDEN AGE for ALL AMERICANS,” he said. 

The Louisiana Republican’s post came a few hours before the House voted on Trump’s tariff policy. Ultimately, six Republicans broke with Johnson and voted with Democrats on a measure to rein in Trump’s Canadian tariffs, a vote that the president warned could net some of them MAGA-backed primary challengers.

But the surging stock market isn’t the sole measure of economic health, and other snapshots are contradictory. The January jobs report, released this week, showed a gain of about 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and pushing the unemployment rate down a notch to 4.3 percent. Yet most of that growth was driven by health care and social assistance. And revised numbers have shown the gains of last year were weaker than initially calculated.

All of these factors are likely to shape a midterm cycle dominated by concerns over the cost of living. And if Trump and his allies need a refresher on the risks of touting a strong economy when many Americans still feel like they are struggling, they only need to recall the way voters punished former President Joe Biden and his allies when their boasts of economic strength didn’t match their personal experiences.

Meanwhile, the day after Bondi and others spoke of record Wall Street gains, the Dow had dropped 500 points by midday Thursday, another reminder of the perils of relying on a volatile market.

Starting gate

The “ranking rizzler” runs again: Allies such as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Steny H. Hoyer are preparing to leave politics, but Connecticut Democrat Rosa DeLauro is running for a 19th term. Should Democrats win control of the House, an outcome party leaders are growing increasingly confident of, the 82-year-old intends to once again seek the gavel of the powerful Appropriations Committee.  

NJ special: Progressive activist Analilia Mejia declared victory in the special election Democratic primary to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill in the House after former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded this week. Last Thursday’s election remains uncalled by The Associated Press.  

#MISEN: The leading Democratic candidates for Senate in Michigan met onstage for a forum in Washington this week, with corporate PAC donations and health care plans emerging as key areas of differentiation between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County public health official Abdul El-Sayed. 

#MESEN: Maine Sen. Susan Collins made her bid for a sixth term official this week, giving the GOP their best shot at holding her seat in what’s already shaping up to be an expensive contest.

Virginia redistricting: Virginia voters are poised to weigh in on a new congressional map this spring, which, if adopted, would reshuffle where several House candidates are planning to run this year while favoring Democrats to win in all but one of the commonwealth’s 11 seats. As part of the complicated process for adopting new lines mid-decade, the Virginia legislature on Tuesday approved the map and sent it to Gov. Abigail Spanberger for her signature, although the effort still faces a legal challenge. 

New targets: The DCCC added five Republican-held districts to its 2026 target list, reflecting the party’s renewed confidence of winning the House majority this year.

Amodei out: Longtime House appropriator Mark Amodei of Nevada is the latest Republican member opting for retirement. Amodei’s departure opens up a deep-red seat that’s likely to draw a crowd of candidates.

ICYMI

Endorsements (Democratic edition): In the race for New York’s open 12th District, retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler has endorsed state Assemblyman Micah Lasher and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is supporting Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg, while former Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney is backing state Rep. Alex Bores. In Illinois, Rep. Eric Sorensen has endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton for the state’s open Senate seat over House colleagues Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly. In Illinois’ 9th District, the progressive group Justice Democrats is backing social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh in the crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky. And in California, Rep. Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial bid won the support of Sen. Adam B. Schiff, a former House colleague.

Endorsements (Republican edition): Trump gave his “Complete and Total” endorsement to seven Florida lawmakers this week, including embattled Rep. Cory Mills. All Republican members of the Florida delegation who are seeking reelection this year have the president’s backing. In Texas, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is backing Republican Sen. John Cornyn, while Turning Points Action, the political arm of the conservative student organization founded by Charlie Kirk, endorsed one of Cornyn’s primary challengers, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. In South Carolina, Gov. Henry McMaster threw his support behind Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the crowded race to succeed him, which also includes Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman.

#NMSEN: New Mexico Sen. Ben Ray Luján faces a primary challenge from democratic socialist Matt Dodson, but he likely won’t have a Republican opponent this year after Christopher Vanden Heuvel was disqualified for not meeting ballot requirements. 

Dropping out: A week after losing a special election runoff for the 18th District in Texas to fellow Democrat Christian Menefee, attorney Amanda Edwards dropped her bid for a full term. Instead, she said she’ll relaunch her Do Something Houston voter registration initiative. Also in Texas, former Bexar County Republican Party Vice Chair Kyle Sinclair ended his campaign for the open 21st District and endorsed Trump-backed former Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira. Edwards’ and Sinclair’s names remain on the respective March 3 primary ballots. Former Iowa House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl is no longer running for Congress in the open 4th District, after Trump endorsed fellow Republican Chris McGowan. In Louisiana, state Rep. Dixon McMakin dropped out of the Republican primary for the open 5th District, less than two weeks after launching a campaign. Trump has endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez in the race to succeed Senate hopeful Julia Letlow. 

Virginia blues: Democrats’ new proposed House map is still a ways off from being finalized, but it’s already having an impact on candidate plans. Albemarle County Supervisor Mike Pruitt, who was running for the 5th District, has dropped out and endorsed former Rep. Tom Perriello. Former Del. Wendy Gooditis has ended her campaign for the current 6th District and is now backing Rep. Suhas Subramanyam after the new map placed her home in his redrawn 10th District. And J.P. Cooney, a former deputy to special counsel Jack Smith, announced a bid for the proposed 7th District, which would likely be an open seat if the new map is approved. 

#GA11: Georgia physician John Cowan is making another bid for Congress, this time to succeed retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk in the 11th District. Cowan lost to Marjorie Taylor Greene in the 2020 Republican primary for the 14th District. 

Blue on blue: Two more House Democrats are facing primary challengers. In Indiana’s 7th District, Destiny Wells, the party’s former nominee for secretary of state and state attorney general, has filed to challenge Rep. André Carson. And in California’s 43rd District, nonprofit director Myla Rahman is taking on longtime Rep. Maxine Waters.

Guv roundup: New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado has ended his Democratic primary campaign against Gov. Kathy Hochul, saying he had “no viable path forward.” The former congressman, who was challenging his boss from the left, failed to secure enough support at a recent party convention to win an automatic spot on the ballot, while Hochul won an endorsement last week from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. In Minnesota, two Republicans have dropped out of the gubernatorial primary: 2022 nominee Scott Jensen announced he would run for state auditor instead, while the 2014 and 2018 nominee Jeff Johnson ended his campaign after his daughter was found dead in her apartment. Her husband has been charged with second-degree murder. And former South Dakota state Sen. Dan Ahlers has entered the race for governor, an office Democrats last won in 1974.

Caught on camera: Roll Call photo editor Bill Clark has a new book out, chronicling his award-winning political photojournalism over the past 25 years. Order your copy of “Visible” here.

Nathan’s notes

The Seattle Seahawks’ dominant 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots was not only a win for America, but their Super Bowl LX championship roster is also a nifty guide for the 2026 midterm elections, writes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. 

What we’re reading 

Trump’s midterm play: As the midterm year gets underway, it’s not yet clear how Trump will use his sizable cash reserves to help Republican candidates, The Washington Post reports.  

Epstein fallout: Politico reports that a review of the recently released Jeffrey Epstein files shows a close relationship between the late disgraced financier and New Hampshire businessman Dean Kamen. That could create campaign challenges for New Hampshire candidates on both sides of the aisle running for office this year.

Big Bucks County: Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has amassed a notable war chest as he prepares for reelection in his Northeast Pennsylvania swing district, NOTUS reports. Democrats are hopeful that 2026 will be the year they finally defeat the five-term lawmaker, but their leading candidate, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, will need to build on his fundraising this year. 

Still in Pennsylvania: The New York Times explores the “strained, and often strange, relationship” between the two most powerful Democrats in the commonwealth: Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman.

The count: 36 percent

That’s President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in what turned out to be the final Gallup survey of presidential approval, going back 88 years.

Gallup confirmed this week that it is no longer tracking presidential ratings, leaving the data collected from Dec. 1-15, 2025, as the final published number.

A spokesperson for Gallup attributed the change to an evolution in focus.

“This change is part of a broader, ongoing effort to align all of Gallup’s public work with its mission. We look forward to continuing to offer independent research that adheres to the highest standards of social science,” said spokesperson Justin McCarthy.

Key race: Illinois’ 8th District

Candidates: Eight Democrats are running for the seat currently held by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who’s running for Senate. They include former Rep. Melissa Bean, Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison, tech entrepreneur Juanid Ahmed, Hanover Park Village Trustee Yasmeen Bankole, small-business owner Sanjyot Dunung, tech services business owner Neil Khot, former Justice Department analyst Ryan Vetticad and former U.S. Army Reserve judge advocate Dan Tully. Four Republicans are also running: 2024 nominee Mark Rice, businesswoman Jennifer Davis, Army veteran Kevin Ake and retired police officer Herbert Hebein.

Why it matters: Once a swing seat, the suburban 8th District has become more reliably Democratic, meaning the March 17 primary is likely to decide its next member of Congress. 

Cash dash: Bean has led the field in fundraising, according to the most recent FEC filings. At the end of 2025, she had raised $1.3 million, including a $300,000 loan, and had $1 million available. Khot raised $1.2 million, including $765,000 in loans, and had $573,000 on hand, while Ahmed, who challenged Krishnamoorthi in a 2022 primary, raised $1.2 million and had $836,000. Meanwhile, Tully raised $683,000, including $491,000 in loans, and began the new year with $412,000 banked; Morrison raised $540,000 and had $233,000 on hand; Bankole raised $403,000, including $137,000 in loans, and had $171,000; Vetticad raised $122,000 and had $90,000; and Dunung raised $122,000 and had $27,000. 

Bean and Tully have both benefited from outside spending. Servant Leader Fund Inc. has spent $96,000 on direct mail to boost Tully, while Elect Chicago Women has spent $622,000 on media and direct mail to support Bean. Fox News reported this week that a group called Leading the Future, which is backed by AI companies, also plans to support Bean.

Backers: Krishnamoorthi hasn’t endorsed a successor in the 8th District, but other members of the Illinois delegation have spread out their support. Bean is backed by Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Reps. Bill Foster and Brad Schneider. The political arm of the center-left New Democrat Coalition is also backing her. Illinois Reps. Eric Sorensen, Mike Quigley and Jan Schakowsky have all backed Morrison. Several progressive groups, including the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and Justice Democrats, have endorsed Ahmed, as has Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez. Illinois Sen. Richard J. Durbin is supporting Bankole, a former staffer who is also backed by the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. 

What they’re saying: Bean has positioned herself as a proven leader who would rejoin the House with past experience. In her first ad, she highlighted her 2010 vote for the Affordable Care Act, which she acknowledged led to her losing reelection. “Democrats need to stop whining and start winning again with commonsense problem solving,” she said. The Chicago Tribune reported that Ahmed took aim at Bean in a recent ad while calling for “Medicare for All.” Khot’s first TV ad highlighted his experience as an immigrant: “I’ve lived here for 30 years, and now I cannot leave my house without my passport,” he said. 

Terrain: The district is anchored in the northwest suburbs of Chicago and includes Schaumburg. Kamala Harris carried the seat by 7 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections, while Krishnamoorthi won reelection the same year by 14 points. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Democratic.  

Wild card: Bean is one of nearly two dozen former members of Congress seeking a comeback this year.

Coming up

Early voting begins Tuesday in Texas ahead of the state’s March 3 primary. Both parties have competitive primaries for Senate, while the House landscape has been reshaped by redistricting and retirements, with fierce intraparty battles on both sides.

Photo finish

While Maine Sen. Susan Collins announced this week that she’s seeking a sixth term this fall, her Alaska colleague, Lisa Murkowski, told CNN that she wouldn’t join her state’s crowded primary for governor. The two Republicans are seen here arriving at the Capitol in December. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the Races: Let the market decide appeared first on Roll Call.

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