Week 1 was never going to definitively settle the Trey Lance debate, and his supporters and detractors alike will have found plenty to back up their argument in his performance in the surprise defeat to the Chicago Bears.
Lance finished with only 164 yards passing and threw a critical interception as the 49ers slumped to a 19-10 loss in the rain at Soldier Field.
While he missed some throws and was responsible for a key turnover, Lance made plays as a passer and a runner that served as an illustration of why the 49ers selected him third overall last year.
So how should we judge an uneven but still encouraging 2022 debut from Lance? A look back at the tape can help provide the answer.
Downfield Dimes
For all the criticism, much of it unjustified, of Lance’s performance in Week 1, there should be no debate he produced throws that demonstrated why the 49ers made the move to trade three first-round picks to land him last year.
Per Pro Football Focus’ Jeff Deeney, Lance led the NFL with a big-time throw percentage of 6.9% after Week 1.
The first of those throws was a 31-yard strike to Brandon Aiyuk on the 49ers’ first drive. The play was a vintage Kyle Shanahan shot play, a two-man route combination with Aiyuk running a deep over and Jauan Jennings running a vertical route behind it.
It was a play executed to near perfection. The motion from Deebo Samuel and the play-fake to Elijah Mitchell hold the linebackers while Jennings occupies the field side corner and forces deep safety Jaquan Brisker to hesitate and collide with the boundary corner. Aiyuk is consequently left wide open and Lance does an impressive job of climbing the pocket and then produces an accurate on-time throw that sets Aiyuk up for significant yardage after the catch.
Shanahan staple, play-action two-man deep route. Jennings occupying the deep safety, laser from Lance to Aiyuk on the over. pic.twitter.com/yzeEtoBXdY
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
The throw that has received the most attention in the days following the opener, however, was Lance’s 20-yard connection with Ray-Ray McCloud, which set up San Francisco’s sole touchdown of the game.
Another play-action throw, the 49ers again heavily incorporated motion to set up a two-man concept, with Lance faking the ball to Mitchell and Deebo Samuel and Charlie Woerner coming across the formation, the latter to provide pass protection help against the weakside defensive end, buying his quarterback crucial time. Lance made excellent use of that time, layering a beautiful ball over the head of Roquan Smith and into the hands of McCloud, who was left a huge hole in which to run his deep dig thanks to the misdirection and Aiyuk’s clearout route occupying the safeties.
This throw has been shared loads already, but I’m sharing it again because it’s superb and a perfect demonstration of why the move to Lance was made. pic.twitter.com/Kf3K9v7HNI
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
Lance’s play tailed off as the conditions worsened in the second half, but he still delivered another accurate downfield throw in the rain on the first drive of the third quarter, Jennings only needing to make a minor adjustment on a deep throw outside the numbers for a 44-yard gain.
44 yards outside the numbers in the pouring rain. pic.twitter.com/Rw53x20FYE
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
San Francisco’s defeat was largely a result of the 49ers’ inability to cash in on the red zone trips that the deep shots to Aiyuk and Jennings set up, but Lance was far from without blame for the game turning in Chicago’s favor.
Mistakes
The missed chance that fell predominantly on Lance’s shoulders was his deep miss to tight end Tyler Kroft, which served as an encapsulation of how fine the margins between success and failure are in the NFL. Lance’s miss was a product of him not being able to set his feet before releasing the ball due to the pressure of the strong side defensive end who was chipped by Kyle Juszczyk after he came across the formation on a wind back move to get out into a route into the flat.
Agony. Maybe if Juszczyk holds up the d-end slightly longer this is a TD, but he obviously has to get into his route.
One day, the Niners will hit leak for a TD. pic.twitter.com/tucIzVRF3a
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
Juszczyk’s chip perhaps could have been more effective. However, Lance could have rendered the free rusher immaterial and may well have had the time to set his feet before releasing the ball had he not shuffled his feet closer to the defender after he initially pivoted to turn to throw.
While that narrow miss was an example of where Lance can improve his footwork, a drive that ended with the Niners settling for a field goal having gotten to the Bears’ two-yard line offered a window into how he can make strides as a processor.
Lance was sacked for a three-yard loss by Dominique Robinson and Roquan Smith on third down, but there were a couple of instances in the play where he could have turned it into a critical positive for San Francisco.
This one is on Lance, imo. Hit the throw to Deebo or take the obvious escape route to the right. pic.twitter.com/srmiy4KMkJ
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
Lance holds the ball too long waiting to see if he can fit the ball into Samuel, but the key error is earlier in the play. He moves off his first read too quickly despite seemingly having a window to connect with Jennings on an out route for a touchdown. Having made that mistake, Lance then eschews an obvious escape route and opportunity to make a play with his legs, holding on to the ball and taking a sack he could have easily avoided.
Decision-making and reading the field is going to be an area where Lance will be a work in progress throughout his first season as a starter, and his crushing fourth-quarter interception was a painful reminder of that.
Hate the decision, obviously. Complete staredown. Great play by Jackson, probably would have been better off running and trying to extend the play.
Nothing his predecessor hasn’t done, though. Not to stoke that particular fire. pic.twitter.com/yz87X3Ty2O
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
With the Bears playing Cover 1 robber, Lance does initially look off Eddie Jackson as he and Brisker rotate but then does not see Jackson reading him staring down Jennings and breaking back to his right to make a superb play on the ball to set the Bears up to ice the game.
In Lance’s defense, it is a mistake his predecessor as the starter has made consistently in his career against the same coverage, and the evidence from the opener suggests Lance should do a better job of navigating muddied pockets than Jimmy Garoppolo has done in previous seasons for the Niners.
Navigating pressure
Pass protection was a problem for the 49ers for large swathes of the opener, often limiting Lance’s ability to make the plays to cement San Francisco’s command of the game and remove the eventual Bears comeback from the equation.
The impact of the offensive line struggles was all too apparent in the first quarter when a third-down sack took the 49ers out of field goal range.
Lance looked to have McCloud open on a corner-post route but was robbed of the opportunity to potentially rip the ball into the receiver as Mike McGlinchey gave up a quick pressure to rookie Dominique Robinson that Lance could not escape.
Lance probably has a window to hit McCloud here had his protection held up.
One positive on this play, Spencer Burford was a brick wall. pic.twitter.com/PYxsqPu6In
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
Though Lance had no route to avoiding the sack on that occasion, he did often demonstrate encouraging pocket movement to avoid further negative plays when his protection broke down.
His interior protection crumbled quickly on this third down on the final drive of the first half, Aaron Banks allowing the defensive tackle to come through the A gap, forcing Lance to climb the pocket. However, with a defender breaking free from left tackle Trent Williams’ protection, Lance is unable to fully step up into the pocket and has to take a backward step and settle his feet before making a slightly off-balance throw to at least prevent a sack.
Sure it’s a miss on third down, but a miss amid an extremely messy pocket that he did a decent job of navigating. pic.twitter.com/TrWKFDRNvn
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
That throw was behind Jennings, who looked to have space to work with on a route angling back into the middle of the field after working outside from the slot, but Lance displayed calm in navigating a messy pocket, keeping his eyes downfield as he did so.
The location of Lance’s throw was improved, if not perfect, when Lance was pressured into climbing the pocket again in the fourth quarter while attempting to turn the game back in the direction of the 49ers.
So the placement is a little off, but can’t ask for more here in terms of climbing the pocket with eyes downfield and delivering a dart. pic.twitter.com/IWzVQwgSsE
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
Banks is forced to recover after initially getting beat by Robert Quinn working to the inside on a stunt, with Lance this time having more room to work with to climb the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and gun a dart into Ross Dwelley for the first down.
Despite playing behind an O-Line that provided what would best be described as inconsistent protection, Lance frequently displayed impressive composure with the pocket breaking down around him.
He also excelled in an area of the game that can help the 49ers negate such pressure from future opponents this season.
Run-game upside
Lance finished Week 1 as the 49ers’ leading rusher, racking up 54 yards on 13 carries, and, while San Francisco may want him to take less punishment in terms of the number of hits he suffered, the proficiency he displayed in the open field provided a compelling argument for implementing more designed runs into the gameplan.
His finest run of the day came on a quarterback draw in the second quarter on third-and-long, Lance making Jaquan Brisker miss to keep the drive alive following a penalty on Aiyuk on the previous play.
Really nice move in the open field to make Jaquan Brisker miss. pic.twitter.com/Jzwd5tzcIv
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
He demonstrated the same ability to evade defenders on the Niners’ field goal drive in the third quarter, dodging the tackle attempt of Eddie Jackson to pick up six yards on a play that may have resulted in a touchdown if not for the safety’s excellent awareness.
Great ballfake from Lance, dressed up with motion both ways. Eddie Jackson doesn’t fall for any of it and saves a potential touchdown run. pic.twitter.com/aV9uM9u7j2
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 13, 2022
Lance came into the league known more for his physicality as a runner rather than his elusiveness, yet he knows NFL players are not likely to fall off tackles in the same way FCS defenders did during his time at North Dakota State.
Plays such as that 13-yard gain should, therefore, give encouragement to the 49ers that they can incorporate a heavy dosage of Lance runs into the gameplan to alleviate some of the pressure on him as a thrower without worrying too much about the risk of injury.
Lance’s threat in the open field gives the 49ers more diversity in the run game, and there was evidence of that in the first half in Chicago, with San Francisco running the option with Lance and Elijah Mitchell after a play-fake to Samuel out of a split-back formation.
Wrote back in August about the threat of the run game with Deebo and another back flanking Lance in a split back formation. This play showed how effective run plays from such alignments can be, and the threat of the option is an excellent added wrinkle. pic.twitter.com/r6Yhw0Cnji
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) September 12, 2022
The loss of Mitchell to a knee injury could temper San Francisco’s creativity somewhat in the run game, but it may also lead the 49ers to lean more heavily on what he can do with ball in hand, and his performance in Week 1 suggested they can have confidence of success should they choose to do so.
Hope for Week 2
The final statistics and the outcome may not have been impressive but, even in a particularly disappointing opener, there’s still plenty of room for excitement about what Lance can become.
Lance’s footwork and his processing must still improve, but none of the mistakes he made were ones that cannot be corrected as he continues to get experience playing at the highest level after playing so little football in college and in his first season as a pro.
Playing behind a suspect offensive line, Lance appears to have made significant strides from last season in navigating the pocket, and, after criticism about his failure to lead receivers to the ball in preseason, Lance demonstrated he can throw with the anticipation to set up yards after catch opportunities for his pass-catchers while also displaying the deep-ball and run-game upside that attracted the 49ers to him in the first place.
In Week 2, when they take on a Seattle Seahawks defense missing arguably its best pass rusher and box defender in Jamal Adams and using a host of young players in the secondary, the 49ers should have no shortage of chances to hit deep shots and take advantage of what Lance can offer in the run game.
Though he must be wary of a safety in Quandre Diggs who can make him pay for the kind of mistake he produced on his interception against Chicago, Lance – regardless of the weather – should be set up for a more successful display than a Week 1 showing that was nowhere close to as bad as many talking heads would have you believe.
