Fantasy football gamers are tasked with making decisions at every juncture of their seasons. Whether it be the draft, setting lineups, making trades or waiver claims … you name it, there is a choice to be made. Some of them are mundane, and others will drastically alter the course of your team’s fortunes.
One way to help mitigate the chance of a disastrous showing is to understand the amount of risk being assumed. Since the foundation of most any good fantasy roster is laid during the draft, we’ll focus our attention on which players offer the most potential in the face of unmistakable risk. You’ll also read about guys with greater risk than reward, despite being highly ranked or having an early average draft placement.
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Worth the price of admission
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: All of the downside in Tua’s outlook is centered on the scary concussions from a year ago. Facing the threat of not only being shut down for the ’23 season should he suffer another one, Tagovailoa could be forced into early retirement on the worse range of possible outcomes. Nevertheless, as a high-end QB2, he’s well worthy of the risk given the weapons around him.
QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: After missing all but six of the last 34 games, Watson gets a full offseason to hone his skills and build chemistry with a respectable set of targets. The Browns’ system may hold him back from reaching elite status, but as long as he’s healthy, there’s little reason to believe Watson won’t muster at least low-end QB1 returns behind one of the game’s best O-lines.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Smith’s miraculous breakout in 2022 may still have some doubters given his pro career was entirely forgettable prior to last year. The Seahawks have a bevy of weapons for him, a promising running game to shield Smith from constant defensive attention, and a returning coaching staff for continuity. Barring an injury, Smith should maintain QB1 status once again.
RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: Now that LA and Ekeler came to a contractual compromise to keep him with the Bolts in 2023, the only real concern here is durability after a substantial workload last season. Ekeler has done a remarkable job of avoiding big hits in his career, and his well-built frame is adequate at sustaining content when he can’t avoid it. His nose for paydirt and exceptional receiving talents make him a top-three running back, regardless of the scoring system and LA’s new offensive system.
RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders: Despite being nicked up at times in 2022, Jacobs played a full schedule for the first time in his NFL career. He racked up a monster 340 carries and 53 receptions by today’s standards. That massive workload, in conjunction with his past durability issues, should have gamers nervous given the cost of acquisition. To his credit, Jacobs is the backfield in this favorable system, and he’s now done holding out in protest of being franchise tagged. The line between being worthy of the risk and letting someone else assume it is razor thin here.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: Freshly turned 28, Conner probably has one strong campaign left in him, and Arizona will need it with Kyler Murray (knee) in jeopardy of missing several weeks. In 13 games last year, Conner rushed only 183 times and caught 46 balls, so he should be relatively fresh. Injuries are always a factor when selecting the vet, but he is the clear-cut best offensive player in the desert following the release of DeAndre Hopkins.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: A three-game suspension, potentially reduced athleticism, and consecutive years of injury concerns has Kamara tumbling down draft boards in relation to years gone by. However, he probably has one strong campaign left, and it would be foolish to entirely write him off. But if you’re expecting a rebound performance that returns him to RB1 status, understand the odds are against it. Kamara returns from his three-week hiatus to face two brutal run defenses, so it may feel like a five-game suspension to open the year. The schedule drastically eases afterward. In the best of scenarios, he’s a midrange RB2.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: Watson was slow to get going in his rookie season due to injury but managed to finish strong. The risk here is what we can expect from Jordan Love in his first year as a pro starter. The bottom line is simple: Someone needs to catch the ball in this offense loaded with largely unproven targets, and we’re siding with talent winning out.
WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs: Through two seasons, the former first-round pick of the New York Giants finds himself in KC with Patrick Mahomes heaving the ball his way. The Chiefs’ aerial game runs through tight end Travis Kelce, a connection that has absorbed at least 134 targets in five straight seasons and a 152 last year. JuJu Smith-Schuster walked in free agency. Skyy Moore hasn’t lived up to expectations thus far, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is just a guy. Toney has excellent speed and open-field movement skills, but staying healthy has been a critical flaw through his first 34 contests (19 games played). He tweaked a knee in practice and underwent clean-up surgery July 25, but a return for Week 1 no longer is in question. If healthy, he’s the type of player who can post No. 1 numbers with a WR2 target share.
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions: A gambling suspension will force Williams to miss six games a year after he appeared in only a half-dozen outings. On the plus side, he’s not returning from injury, and he’ll be able to get in some mental reps in a system that he should have down by now. To the contrary, Williams may be rusty and could miss out on valuable chemistry-building time with Jared Goff. Suspended players can practice during the preseason and training camp but are barred from practicing in the regular season. Complicating things, he has been out of practice with a bum hammy, though it won’t be a factor once he’s eligible to play actual football. That means gamers will have to roster him for six weeks, and it’s entirely plausible Williams will be irrelevant the first two games back … plus we lose him for the Week 9 bye. Those with advanced experience in roster building in deep leagues should feel comfortable chancing it on the dynamic vertical threat.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: Two seasons into Pitts’ promising career has seen uneven returns. He landed 1,026 yards worth of passes on 68 grabs in 2021 but managed a lone touchdown. He was inexplicably irrelevant in 2022, and his lack of scoring prowess continued. The ticker is now up to 169 targets and only three scores to show for it. Talent of his caliber tends to win out. The system was known for successful tight ends prior to 2022, and second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder should rely heavily on Pitts. Expect a strong TE1 rebound.
TE Irv Smith, Cincinnati Bengals: Still only 25 years old come Week 1, the oft-injured Smith has secured a mere 25 passes in the last two calendar years combined. He has flashed a few times in his limited playing time, and a change of scenery may work in his favor. Cincinnati is three-deep at wide receiver on any given play, so volume won’t be on Smith’s side, though we saw the less talented Hayden Hurst manage a 52-414-2 line last year. Ja’Marr Chase missed action and Tee Higgins wasn’t 100 percent much of the way as contributing factors for Hurst’s statistical uptick, but the athletic Smith will see solo coverage all day and night. The 52 catches is probably out of reach, but something in the realm of 40-450-5 isn’t. He’s an intriguing flier for a TE2 slot.
TE Darren Waller, New York Giants: Waller turns 31 on Sept. 13, and he has been targeted in only 20 games over two years after two spectacular seasons. A move to New York puts him firmly in the seat of being this offense’s top receiving target as the Giants’ cast of receivers is shaky. This situation has all the makings of a Kansas City-like situation in which the tight end serves as the most targeted weapon. Staying on the field is imperative, of course, and it’s the only reason to be skeptical about the veteran’s return to prominence.
Let someone else pay the tab
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Forget the bag, Jackson received the entire vault. Now that he has been paid, expectations are even greater for a player who has struggled to come close to replicating his 2019 MVP season. The Ravens bolstered his offensive weaponry in the offseason, though it will require several things to work in his favor if Jackson is to threaten his past success. Furthermore, the star said he expects to run less, and that’s the driving force behind his fantasy offerings. Quarterback is far too deep to invest heavily in so many potential pitfalls.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: Taylor’s trade desire fell through by the team-imposed deadline, and he was placed on the Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform list. He will miss a minimum of the first four weeks and still may be traded. If Taylor returns, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has been named the starter, so there will be growing pains in the aerial game. Furthermore, the No. 4 overall pick is a serious threat to steal rushing scores. Taylor, however, will remain the focus of the offense — should he stick around. Talent tends to win out, and Taylor is the best player on this roster. Rostering him comes down to the price tag — anything earlier than a low-end RB2 is too risky.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets: The ultra-talented Hall’s outlook is dampened by last year’s ACL tear. He’s versatile and dynamic when healthy, but returning from knee reconstruction rarely goes well the first season back. He has youth on his side, and the offense is markedly improved with Aaron Rodgers coming aboard, but Hall may not be a reliable option in the first half of the upcoming season. To complicate it further, Dalvin Cook was signed and will be paid enough money to suggest he could have a major role even when Hall is fully healthy.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: It cannot be overstated: Williams’ draft placement is more imperative than most players on this list, since expectations completely fuel his placement here. While avoiding the PUP is a win, too many gamers seem to think he’s going to hit the ground running as if nothing ever happened. Denver will split reps with Williams and the capable Samaje Perine as is the Sean Payton way. Russell Wilson is a threat to steal TDs, and unless we see the third-year back take on a massive role in the passing game, it’s tough to envision him living up to RB2 ADP expectations after suffering an ACL tear in Week 4. Complicating the situation, Williams also suffered damage to the lateral collateral and posterior collateral ligaments. It will be impressive if he regains form in the first half of the season and is expected to be on a pitch count to start the year.
WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: We haven’t seen Ridley play a full slate since his 2018 rookie season, and missing all but five games in the last two years combined makes him a huge question mark. While he enters an offense in which he’s the most talented receiver, Trevor Lawrence has ample options for ball dispersal. Unless you can land him on the cheap or just love a good gamble, Ridley can be left for the next drafter considering the cost of adding him is so steep.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens: He hasn’t played a full season since 2019, which wasn’t an impressive campaign to boot. His per-game fantasy returns have declined each and every season since his marvelous rookie showing in 2014. Turning 31 this year, OBJ’s bloom is off the rose. Beckham also has to acclimate to yet another quarterback, one whose aerial game leaves at least something to be desired.
TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills: Overly reliant on touchdowns, Knox plays in an offense that spreads the ball around and now added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid. Knowing when to play the veteran will be maddening.
TE Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals: He enters his age-33 season coming off an ACL tear. Ertz may not have quarterback Kyler Murray for several games, and 2022 second-round tight end Trey McBride could step up his game.
