Vladimir Putin is lashing out and terrorising Ukranian cities after his bridge to Crimea was very boldly, and very publicly, blown apart.
Adding fuel to the Russian retaliation fire is a report American intelligence agencies now believe Ukraine was behind a high-profile assassination in Moscow.
There are regular reports of sabotage inside occupied territories — likely acts of local anti-Kremlin forces and likely aided by Ukraine's security service.
There's now a shadow war of attacks steeped in symbolism, covert operations that reach deep into Moscow and even simmering Russian resistance.
And while Putin's military continues to falter, evidence suggests those in his inner circle are doing nothing but encouraging him to double down.
Analysts say these circumstances set the stage for another dangerous act in the war because, to Putin, the only thing worse than losing ground is losing face.
Ukraine's offensive
Since before Russian tanks rolled over the Ukranian border, Putin has been trying to send a message of strength and his belief in a Russian victory — at first a quick win, but even now, eventual success.
For a moment, there was a fear in the global community that Kyiv would quickly fall, but then Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Ukrainian military sent some messages of their own.
And for several months, the world has watched as Ukraine gained ground, retaking occupied towns, pushing Russia back and suddenly forcing Putin into a defensive posture.
Then, it is alleged, Ukraine's offensive reached much further.
The New York Times recently reported American intelligence now believed Ukraine was behind the car bomb that killed the daughter of a Russian ultra-nationalist.
When Darya Dugina was killed in August, the Kremlin quickly pointed the finger at Kyiv, but there was also a theory an anti-Kremlin movement inside Russia was to blame.
But the New York Times reported American intelligence believed "parts of the Ukrainian government authorised" the attack.
The report said it was not clear if Zelenskyy himself was aware of the assassination plot.
The official line from Kyiv is still that Ukraine was not involved and the report has been slammed by several military experts, but like so many developments in this war, the confusion over who is to blame presents an opportunity.
After Dugina died, her father Aleksandr Dugin called for revenge and urged Putin to push ahead with his assault on Ukraine.
If Ukraine was behind the killing, it would illustrate Kyiv's ability to strike and kill targets deep inside Russia — and in what many may have considered the safe, elite suburbs and circles of Moscow.
The development may also open up the Ukrainian elite in Kyiv to revenge attacks from Russia.
Hanna Shelest, director of security programs at the Foreign Policy Council in Ukraine and non-resident fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, said she believed Ukraine was capable of such an attack, but would not concede that it was likely.
"It's not [a question of] can we or can we not. Theoretically, we probably can," she said.
"But for us ... it's not the tactic of the Ukrainian forces, because you can see for the eight years [since the annexation of Crimea] we haven't killed anybody, we haven't done any operation like this."
British military expert and advisor to the Ukrainian defence forces Glen Grant said there was "no value" in the assassination for Kyiv.
"It's more likely to have been the Russians doing it; trying to get value, than it is the Ukrainians.
"They can't afford to lose someone on something so stupid."
A former senior UK government official with extensive experience working in both Russia and Ukraine told the ABC that despite the New York Times reporting, it was "astonishing to think that the Ukrainian intelligence service would have thought this so important that it pushed aside other important operational things they should be getting on with".
"I just can't see that is useful enough to Ukraine," he said.
Was it Ukraine, was it an anti-Kremlin group inside Russia, or was it an order from even closer to home?
Either way, the news from American intelligence helps Putin tout his message that Ukraine is targeting ideological symbols, not just military ones, and with that comes a platform for revenge.
Kerch Bridge significance
When a mysterious explosion damaged the Kerch Bridge — and with it, Russia's symbolic and literal link to Crimea — it was predictable that the President would promise to respond.
Members of the Duma were quick to label the explosion an act of terrorism and call for Russia to declare a "counterterrorism operation".
That language is important because the word 'terrorism' allows leaders to do all kinds of things. In Russia, it will usually shore up public support for whatever comes next.
Damage to the Kerch Bridge no doubt benefits Ukraine, but no one on that side has actually claimed responsibility and the theories as to who authorised and orchestrated the bombing are still developing.
One theory is again that it's an inside job, and that Russian infighting has reached a point where this level of sabotage could be possible.
"It's become one of those incidents that's given rise to all kinds of speculation and theories about who is responsible. And to some extent, it may even suit both sides," the former UK government official said.
"The terrorism label carries some special resonance in Russia. First of all, it carries an implicit message that says, 'these are undercover and unattributed acts'.
"Second, it carries a sort of enemy within message. If you're one of those people in Russia who is sceptical or even strongly opposed to the war, then Putin's message for you is 'if you are opposed to the war, you're supporting terrorism.'"
Mr Grant said the extent to which information was being used in this war was new.
"[With] previous nation-to-nation wars .... things were very clear cut, there had not been the deception. They'd not been hybrid, they've just been military," he said.
"Whereas the hybrid [element to] this war, especially with things like communications [and] false news is new.
"We had a bit in the Second World War, where we didn't report things until we were clear what was going on, but not to the extent of this war where someone is deliberately fabricating every piece of everything."
When Russia launched a fresh aerial attack on Ukrainian cities this week, it was convenient to call it revenge for the Kerch Bridge attack, but Dr Shelest said Ukrainian intelligence agencies knew Russia was planning new aerial bombardments.
"It was very good for the Russian President to present it as a response to Kerch Bridge, but definitely, it's been planned earlier and it became just a symbolic prerequisite, but not the real reason for these attacks," she said.
Mr Grant agreed, saying: "Putin needed something to in effect bolster his position to say 'we're fighting the West, we're not just fighting Ukraine'. We're fighting everybody. He needed an eye catcher, and he's got that."
Sabotaging Putin
Russia is struggling to hold onto territory it has supposedly already annexed through so-called referendums in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
And while the Ukrainian military is responsible for driving the invaders back, there are resistance movements in the occupied regions doing their bit to sabotage newly installed Russian-backed leaders.
Of all the problems Putin has, perhaps the grassroots efforts of Ukrainian resistance don't rate highly on the list, but some of the developments in the occupied regions help demonstrate just how murky this side of the war is.
That was in early August, but by September Vitaliy showed up in Moscow alive.
According to him, he knew he was the target of a Ukrainian assassination plot and so the Russian FSB staged his death and brought him home.
What's true, what was ever really planned, who it was planned by is all part of the murky world of Russia, its infighting, resistance movements and each sides' intelligence services.
What Dr Shelest would confirm is that the Ukrainian intelligence services are working with resistance movements, both to gather information and to help their efforts.
"We understand perfectly that we have our resistance movements in the occupied territories, parts of them are independent — grassroots partisans — but some of them are in good contact with the special forces and with military intelligence," she said.
"So these operations are definitely happening."
Putin's inner circle
With a series of embarrassing and symbolic attacks, mounting motivations for revenge and the undeniable loss of territory in the ground battle, Russia has returned to the sky.
With a new commander for the "special military operation", Putin is pushing on.
Mr Grant said with Sergei Surovikin — or "the killer" — now in charge, there was "a change of tack".
"He's going to go for the population. He's not a general — I mean he's not a highly trained type of senior officer who knows what he's doing," he said.
"He'll throw lots of bodies at it, throw lots of ammunition and missiles at it and kill as much as possible.
"I don't see that we're going to see any true tactical change on the front line."
Russian political commentator Tatiana Stanovaya reports Putin's inner circle is increasingly trying to offer solutions on Ukraine.
"The attempts are getting louder, the suggestions are more diverse. Everyone wants to help Putin find a way out.
"But Putin's behaviour in recent months creates a feeling among the elites that there are no solutions other than nuclear ones," she writes in R.Politik.
Not only does their leader look incompetent, but with widespread analysis the Russian military is ineffective, the motherland itself looks both weak and stunningly cruel on the world stage.
Among those voices are strong proponents of doubling down.
"He's definitely desperate, but he's also paranoid," Dr Shelest said.
"So the only question is, how far other people around him are willing to go, because he's not the only person who is pushing the buttons."
ABC/Reuters/AP
