RECAP: Asian and European markets fell yesterday on lingering recession worries as data indicated the US economy was slowing down. Thailand has low recession risk but the SET has slid amid negative global sentiment and falling oil prices.
Thai shares moved in a range of 1,549.64 and 1,604.21 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,558.36, down 2.2% from a week earlier, in daily turnover averaging 53.71 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 5.91 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 4.99 billion, followed by institutions at 667.21 million and brokers at 246.72 million baht worth of shares.
NEWSMAKERS: Global funds have offloaded a net US$750 million worth of Thai debt this month, the biggest sell-off in emerging Asia based on divergence from the 12-month average, due to political uncertainty before the May 14 election. Analysts note, though, that funds also sold Thai bonds prior to 2014 and 2019 polls, but inflows then surged afterward.
- Changan Automobile, the world's 15th largest seller of electric vehicles, plans to invest 9.8 billion baht in Thailand for its first manufacturing base outside China. Chairman Zhu Huarong said the state-owned Chinese automaker would invest a total of 4 billion yuan (20 billion baht) in Thailand over the next few years.
- China's economy grew by 4.5% in the first quarter as consumption got a boost after Beijing abandoned Covid-19 curbs. The figure followed a 2.9% GDP rise in the fourth quarter and beat expectations for growth of around 4%.
- China's long-suffering real estate sector expanded for the first time in seven quarters, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. New investment in property development fell in the first quarter but sales of new homes increased as measured by floor space.
- Seagate Technology has agreed to pay a $300-million penalty for shipping $1.1 billion worth of hard disk drives to the Chinese tech giant Huawei in violation of US export control laws. The drives made in Thailand and China were sold to Huawei in 2020 and 2021 despite a rule restricting sales of certain foreign items made with US technology to the company.
- Tesla reported a 24% year-on-year profit drop in the first quarter to $2.5 billion, after the American EV maker cut prices in several markets including China and the US. Revenue, however, was up 24% to $23.3 billion.
- Japanese core consumer prices rose 3.1% in March from a year earlier, staying above the central bank's target of 2% as companies continued to pass on rising costs to households. The figure was unchanged from February but down from a 41-year high of 4.2% in January.
- Japan's trade deficit roughly quadrupled to a record ¥21.7 trillion ($160 billion) in fiscal 2022. Imports jumped 32.2% from a year earlier to ¥120.95 trillion and exports increased 15.5% to ¥99.23 trillion.
- The US chip manufacturer GlobalFoundries has filed a lawsuit against IBM, accusing it of unlawfully sharing confidential intellectual property (IP) and trade secrets with Rapidus, a new state-backed Japanese consortium.
- Credit Suisse has lodged a $440-million claim against SoftBank Group of Japan in a dispute arising from the failure of the finance firm Greensill Capital. The Swiss lender says Greensill lent clients' funds to Katerra, a SoftBank-backed construction group that later went bankrupt.
- Toyota Motor plans to invest $334 million in Brazil to produce a new compact hybrid vehicle that can be powered by biofuel, hoping to reach a potentially big market for smaller, cheaper biofuel hybrids.
- Japan said international tourist arrivals in March totalled 1.82 million, or 66% of the figure from March 2019, before the pandemic. The figure was up 23% from February. Total visitors for the year are forecast to top 20 million.
- Netflix added a net 1.75 million paid streaming subscribers in the first three months of 2023, with Asia Pacific leading the growth. Revenue rose 3.7% year-on-year to $8.2 billion with Asia Pacific contributing $934 million, up 2%.
- Chief executive Tim Cook inaugurated the first Apple retail store in India on Tuesday. The Mumbai store opens as Indian consumers look to upgrade to glitzier smartphones in a market where Apple's pricey models have just a 3% share.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, is predicting its first full-year revenue drop since 2009 amid weak demand and persistently high inventory levels. It said first-half revenue was expected to decline by about 10%.
- HSBC's largest shareholder is keeping up the pressure on the bank to undergo a major restructuring, just weeks before its annual shareholders' meeting. Ping An Insurance is pushing for the creation of a separately listed Asia business headquartered in Hong Kong.
- China's production of key electronics has declined so far this year despite a bullish rebound in the overall economy. Output of semiconductors fell nearly 15% year-on-year in the first quarter and smartphone production shrank 13.8% as local brands like Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi struggled to shake off weak sales.
- Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 4.3% from 4.5% expected earlier, hoping the new government will offer consumption-supporting measures amid a clearer tourism recovery.
- The IMF and World Bank said on Wednesday they would hold their 2026 annual meetings in Bangkok, returning the October gathering to Thailand for the first time since 1991.
- Thailand's industrial sentiment in March reached its highest level in a decade, boosted by a rebound in domestic demand and tourism. But high costs, slowing global growth and baht volatility remain a worry, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said on Wednesday.
- New mortgage lending by the Government Housing (GH) Bank during the first quarter dropped 11% year-on-year, attributed to higher lending in the same period last year.
- Shares of Kasikornbank (KBANK) and Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) slumped on Thursday as investors were concerned that the cable manufacturing and logistics holding firm Stark Corp (STARK) might default on loan payments with both banks.
- The number of newly registered Thai companies rose 28% year-on-year in March, with combined registered capital skyrocketing by 1,055%, according to the Ministry of Commerce. A total of 1,102 businesses ceased operations in March, up 19% year-on-year.
- SET-listed Asset World Corp (AWC) Plc, an integrated lifestyle real estate group, is preparing to reopen its Pantip Pratunam IT centre, which will be rebranded as AEC Food Wholesale Pratunam in June.
- Some 80% of Thai organisations that employ workers with advanced digital skills report higher annual revenue growth, but 94% of those organisations are struggling to hire enough of these talents, according to a study by Amazon Web Services (AWS).
- Tourism operators are calling for clarity on the 300-baht tourism fee, collection of which has been pushed back from June to September. The problem is that airlines are unable to come up with a system to distinguish between foreign tourists, Thais and expatriates.
COMING UP: Germany will release its business confidence index on Monday. Due Tuesday are South Korean first-quarter GDP, US new home sales and consumer confidence. On Wednesday, Germany will report consumer confidence and the US will release March durable goods orders. Locally, the Federation of Thai Industries on Tuesday will report March car production and exports.
STOCKS TO WATCH: SBI Thai Online Securities recommends stocks with good growth prospects, including tourism plays AOT, MINT, CENTEL and M. It also recommends construction stocks that will gain as projects pick up, among them SEAFCO, CK and STEC. Power plant operators that will benefit from lower coal and natural gas prices are GPSC, BGRIM and GULF.
- InnovestX Securities recommends outperformers with inexpensive valuations and thus limited downside, such as AU, BBL, BDMS, CPALL and GULF. Among energy stocks it recommends PTT and BCP, which benefit from the recovery of oil prices and refining margins. It also recommends selected retail plays, such as HMPRO amid demand for cooling appliances. Dividend picks are AP, KKP, KTB and LH.
TECHNICAL VIEW: SBI Thai Online Securities sees support at 1,550 points and resistance at 1,582. InnovestX sees support at 1,545 and resistance at 1,582.
