While Vladimir Putin was massing his troops along Ukraine’s border, he caught the attention of the West’s leaders. They beat a path to his door to persuade him not to invade. However, he got mixed messages from the UK, the US and the EU and was emboldened not dissuaded. His personal strategic objective of dividing the West and weakening, perhaps even fracturing, Nato looked as if it might come about. Germany banning military equipment passing through its borders was music to Putin’s ears.
Last Thursday, Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion.
It was to be a three-pronged assault south from Belarus toward Kyiv, north from the Crimea and west from the Donbas area – an expanding torrent throughout Ukraine. Special Forces, including the covert Wagner Group, would seize key airfields and installations, perhaps assassinating President Zelensky for good measure.
But the plan has failed. The Ukrainians have fought far harder and more bravely than the Russians calculated. Special Forces attacks were largely defeated and the main Russian columns, mostly made up of conscripts, found themselves not greeted as liberators or peacekeepers, as they had been briefed, but were subject to fierce resistance.
So, what now for Putin? He has threatened the West with nuclear hints but on the battlefield, he has ordered Plan B – intense shelling and his columns to surround and lay siege to Kyiv and other key cities like Kharkiv. Over time, he may yet prevail on the battlefield, but he and his senior generals have now carried out a series of war crimes for which they will surely be indicted. To save his skin, and that of his oligarch henchmen, he will have to resume talks sooner rather than later.
Today, Putin is at the height of his power (or is it his madness?) but the only direction of travel is down. However, who will guide him back to the conference table? He will not be led by the West, who are now united in their opposition to him, and the much-derided sanctions have already begun to bite. His best hope is that President Xi Jinping will put an arm around him and sit him down to face reality. He hates the West, but he fears China. Putin has lost and the Ukrainians have won a famous victory for democracy and the values of the West.
