FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Abortion rights is such an important issue to Rebecca Thompson, of Pembroke Pines, that she brought her 2-year-old daughter with her to early vote.
“I needed her to see that her mother was going to fight for her and her rights — rights that I have always had, and that now she does not. Rights for her to, in the future, become a mother. The right for her to not, and the right for her to make decisions over her body if something ever horrible would happen to her,” she said.
Thompson, a Democrat, said she voted for Charlie Crist for governor.
For Susan Fischer, of Fort Pierce, the top issues are different. “Inflation and gas prices, it’s horrific,” she said. “Food bills are astronomical.”
Fischer does not see abortion motivating voters the way inflation does. “I don’t think that’s on the public’s radar. Abortion isn’t affecting everybody the way inflation is.”
She is supporting Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis for reelection.
By making abortion rights central to their campaigns, top Florida Democrats thought they could convince young voters and independent women to punish anti-abortion Republicans in the midterm elections. The Democratic thinking was that voters energized by the issue could help them buck history, in which midterm elections go badly for the party that controls the presidency.
Now, inflation is Florida voters’ top concern. “How is abortion going to top that personal experience with gas, housing, groceries, rent?” asked Susan MacManus, a retired University of South Florida political scientist. “Fear is a big driver in politics, and fear isn’t just personal safety, it’s fear that you’re not going to be able to survive economically,” MacManus said.
Rallying cry
Democrats started emphasizing abortion rights even before the springtime leak of a draft opinion indicating the U.S. Supreme Court was preparing to overturn the right to abortion, which had been in place since Roe v. Wade in 1972.
In Florida, Democrats and abortion-rights activists highlighted the state law, enacted this year by DeSantis and the Republican-controlled state Legislature, that banned almost all abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy, with no exceptions for victims of rape or incest. Previously abortion was legal in Florida until the 24th week of pregnancy.
When Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican presidents overturned Roe in June, Democrats and their allies in Florida and across the country ramped up the fight even more.
Support for abortion rights is a central pillar of the campaign by U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., to unseat U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.
And in the final month of his campaign, Crist has made abortion the rallying cry for those who want to defeat DeSantis.
On voters’ minds
In the months since the Roe decision, inflation has continued to rage, making it a top issue for many voters.
In the 12 months through August, inflation was 10.7% in the Miami-Fort-Lauderdale-West Palm Beach region; nationally prices were up 8.3%. (The regional breakdown is published in alternate months. August is the most recent for South Florida). In the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater region, prices were up 10.5% for the 12 months ending in September, and up 8.2% nationally from a year earlier.
Voters are paying attention.
A Florida Atlantic University poll released on Oct. 21 found 36% of likely Florida voters rated inflation as the most important issue determining their vote.
Abortion access was the most important issue for just 9% of likely Florida voters.
That’s politically helpful for Republicans, who have been blaming the Democratic president and Congress for policies they say have exacerbated inflation. And it is problematic for the Democratic candidates.
A University of South Florida poll released Tuesday, in which voters were asked which three issues would have the most significant impact on their voting decisions, 52% said inflation, 48% said economy and jobs. Abortion was identified by 28%.
Two other issues that often advantage Republicans were immigration (32%) and gun violence and crime (27%). Three issues that can work for Democrats were healthcare (22%), education (17%) and climate change (15%).
Beyond toplines
In the FAU poll, conducted by its Business and Economics Polling Initiative, there were clear partisan differences.
Inflation was the top issue for 47% of Republicans, 25% of Democrats and 36% of no party affiliation/independent voters.
Abortion access was the top issue for 4% of Republicans, 16% of Democrats and 9% of no party affiliation/independents.
The Democrats emphasis on abortion rights could make a difference among younger voters, who historically have poor turnout in midterm elections.
A national poll of 18- to 29-year-olds released Oct. 27 by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School found inflation was the most important to 28% of young voters and abortion was most important to 16%. Among young men, inflation was the top issue, cited by 34%; among young women, abortion was the top issue, cited by 24%.
Rubio-Demings
Demings argues Rubio’s views don’t align with what most Floridians want.
Abortion produced the most passionate exchanges during the one debate between Demings and Rubio, held on Oct. 18.
Demings: “As a police detective who investigated cases of rape and incest, no senator, I don’t think it’s OK for a 10-year-old girl to be raped and have to carry the seed of her rapist. No, I don’t think it’s OK for you to make decisions for women and girls. As a senator, I think the decisions are made between the woman, her family, her doctor and her faith.”
Rubio: “I’m 100% pro-life, not because I want to deny anyone their rights, but because I believe that innocent human life is worthy of protection. Every bill I’ve ever sponsored on abortion or every bill I’ve voted on has exceptions. Every one of them does, because that’s what gets passed and that’s what the majority of people support.”
Rubio sought to use the issue against Demings, labeling her an “extremist on abortion” and asserting that she “supports no restrictions and no limitations of any kind.” Demings said that’s not true. She said she supports abortion rights until the point of fetal viability, generally defined as about 24 weeks of pregnancy.
DeSantis-Crist
Abortion rights is a focus of Crist’s advertising. He emphasizes it in his public appearances, and during the one statewide televised debate with DeSantis, Crist brought it up again and again, often as part of his responses to questions on other subjects.
Last month, he held two news conferences at Fort Lauderdale devoted to the subject, where he and surrogates hammered DeSantis on the subject. “Choice is on the ballot. Your right to an abortion is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,” Crist said at one.
“Abortion bans tell us how we view women’s roles in society,” Thompson, the Pembroke Pines Crist supporter, said at another.
DeSantis essentially ignores everything Crist says as he concentrates on touting his stewardship of the state and criticizing President Joe Biden, avoids talking about the subject of abortion rights, or what additional restrictions — beyond the post-15-week ban he signed this year — he might enact if re-elected.
Biden, for his part, touched on abortion rights at a Democratic Party rally on Tuesday in Miami Gardens, one week before Election Day.
But he focused much more on touting economic progress — reduced unemployment, a decrease in gas prices and a lower federal deficit — that have been overshadowed by high inflation.
The president has also made concern over threats to democracy part of his closing argument to American voters heading in the midterms. In the FAU poll, 19% of Florida voters cited threats to democracy as the most important issue.
During their speeches preceding the president in Miami Gardens, Crist and Demings both emphasized abortion rights.
Right strategy
Abortion may not move voters the way Democrats once thought.
Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s polling initiative, said the wisdom of the Democrats’ strategy won’t be certain until the elections are over.
“Whether that’s a mistake or not, the only way you know is after the election,” Wagner said. “We see that younger women are motivated in ways that might not have happened otherwise.”
Abortion was the central conversation in the summer after the Supreme Court overturned Roe, Wagner said. “When focus changes and things happen, other issues start to rise,” he said, adding that what’s become the top issue in the fall “in a year when inflation is as high as it is, it’s not surprising.”
State Sen. Lauren Book, a Broward Democrat who is her party’s leader in the Florida Senate, said abortion rights remains a powerful issue. “We are finding this across the board,” she said, in polling, knocking on doors and at events in communities.
“We’re talking about the cost of living, affordability. That is on the top of everyone’s mind. But I think that choice [abortion rights] is still up there,” she said.
Richard DeNapoli, the elected state Republican committeeman from Broward, said abortion “doesn’t seem to be moving the needle. It seems that economics are much more in play.”
MacManus said Democrats thought the abortion rights issue would get them votes from suburban women who had voted Republican in recent elections. Twice in recent weeks, MacManus said, she’s been at Publix and seen parents of young children “and they get up to the register and they’ve had to put something aside because they didn’t have enough money.
“Those suburban moms always vote the interests of their child,” she said.
Pat Norris, a Fort Lauderdale Democrat, said abortion rights is a motivating factor for some voters.
“I’m not sure it’s going to be enough to see everybody I want to get elected,” Norris said. “It also cuts the other way. There are people who are really anti-abortion rights for religious reasons and conscience reasons, and I’m sure some of them are motivated” by the issue.
Minds made up
A Florida State University Institute of Politics poll conducted by YouGov, released Friday, found that likely Florida voters’ views on the economy and positions on abortion correlate with who they’re voting for.
Among voters who think the national economy has “gotten better,” 83% are voting for Crist. Among those who said it’s “gotten worse,” 70% are voting for DeSantis.
Among “pro-choice” voters, 73% are voting for Crist. Among “pro-life” voters, 88% are voting for DeSantis.
The same pattern is seen in the U.S. Senate race.
Rubio has support of 67% of voters who say the economy has “gotten worse,” and Demings has 81% of those who say the economy has “gotten better.” Rubio has support of 85% of those who describe themselves as “pro-life” and Demings has support of 74% of “pro-choice” voters.
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