State of Origin is about three things – state against state, mate against mate and disagreeing about who should and shouldn't have been picked as loudly as possible.
Brad Fittler has never been afraid to go off the beaten path when it comes to picking his New South Wales sides — in fact, it's become something of a trademark — while Billy Slater has also made some brave calls for his second series in charge.
The dust is still settling after both states dropped some bombshells for Game I in Adelaide but even if the Blues have taken a gamble on Tevita Pangai Jnr starting in the front row, Queensland are not without their own big swings.
Kalyn Ponga's performance in Origin III last year was not just man of the match material, it was one of the best individual games any player has had in the game's toughest arena in recent times. In one of the greatest Origin matches ever played, when the best of the best were all at their best, it was Ponga who was the very best of them.
His exclusion is explainable — apart from a stellar display against the Titans two weeks ago Ponga has endured a tough opening half to the season, suffering another concussion and still finding his way at five-eighth — but given his performances last year it's hard to understand.
Reece Walsh has been playing well enough to earn his debut courtesy of his electrifying form for Brisbane, but this is not from the classic Queensland playbook where the legacy of battles won is prized above all else.
It's a similar story for Dane Gagai, who has lost his spot to Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Again, the answer is rooted in club form – Gagai had a tough run against Connor Tracey in Newcastle's loss to Cronulla – but the veteran has built his Origin legacy on becoming superman when he dons the Maroons' jersey. He has not only risen above poorer club performances in the past, he has made himself a legend for doing so.
Winning player of the series as a winger is the kind of thing that makes your Origin career live forever, but at 32 years old, with 21 appearances for Queensland under his belt, there's every chance Gagai's time in maroon now belongs to the past.
Tabuai-Fidow deserves his place – he has risen to another level at the Dolphins and is twice the player he was when he debuted in 2021 while still boasting speed that makes him glide even as his feet stay on the ground.
Slater's side is brimming with youth, upside and the tantalising possibility of a bright future. David Fifita has been recalled after hitting the kind of form that makes him worth a million dollars.
Four years after his Origin debut he has barely scratched the surface of what he's capable of in this arena and he remains a player of limitless possibility.
Between Tom Flegler, Tom Gilbert, Tabuai-Fidow and Walsh, who are all either on debut or have only played Origin once, this is a team built for today and tomorrow. Even Kurt Capewell, a relatively recent Origin mainstay who has been below his best for Brisbane, has felt the axe — and on form, it's the right decision. This is a team that looks younger, faster, meaner and wilder than last year, but that's no guarantee it will be better.
With Gagai's exclusion and Josh Papali'i's representative retirement, the number of players who appeared in Queensland's famous run of 10 series victories in 11 years from 2006 to 2017 is shrinking all the time — with Daly Cherry-Evans, Cameron Munster, Valentine Holmes and Ben Hunt still standing there's only four left, and of those four only Cherry-Evans debuted during the run of eight series wins in a row.
The future is not just approaching for Queensland, it is here already because Slater has run towards it. For this match, at least, form is king.
That's the way it usually works for New South Wales but this time the Blues are looking to pull a Queensland on Queensland and nothing less than Brad Fittler's legacy as an Origin coach is on the line.
Fittler enters his fifth series with two wins and two losses to his name and will be relying on all he has built to tip his ledger into the black. The Blues' immediate future will be drawn from their recent past — Fittler has been in charge long enough and flipped the script enough times that only two players, captain James Tedesco and recalled forward Tyson Frizell, pre-date his time as coach.
There are fitness and form concerns for a number of the Blues. Tom Trbojevic was probably out until his hat-trick against Canberra on Sunday, which was one of the first times this year he's looked anything like the man who ripped the sport apart back in 2021.
Liam Martin has played roughly an hour of footy in the last month. Josh Addo-Carr defied medical science to come back early from an ankle injury and was ginger in Canterbury's win over the Titans but did enough to earn a recall after missing last year's series.
Each player has done the job for Fittler in the past and received the benefit of the doubt for doing so.
It wouldn't be a Fittler team without a couple of curveballs. Pangai Jnr is the biggest selection bolter of Fittler's tenure, and excluding Damien Cook for the first time since the Rabbitohs rake debuted back in 2018 is a major break from the established order. But for the most part, Fittler is relying on a team that has done this all before.
Overlooking Campbell Graham, the form centre in the NRL this year, is a controversial decision that will send the horses running, but the return of Latrell Mitchell, Trbojevic and Addo-Carr, and the retention of Jarome Luai in the starting side over Nicho Hynes, means New South Wales have the exact same backline as the first two matches of the 2021 series, when the Blues destroyed Queensland by a combined scoreline of 76-6.
That won't happen again, but Fittler is banking on getting at least a little of that old magic. And if Trbojevic is really back, and if Addo-Carr can run like he normally does, and if Luai can keep his current form going, maybe it can happen. But that's a lot of "ifs" in a row.
It makes for a fascinating showdown at Adelaide Oval. Queensland hold the shield but they are the ones who look like they're starting anew. New South Wales have adapted the methods of their enemies and will try to use their own weapons against them.
Each state has flipped the script and adopted the tendencies of the other. Form against history is the classic dilemma behind all Origin selections and both states have chosen their side of the equation. Only one answer can be proven correct.
