Joe Garra may have already kicked a few political goals before any votes have even been cast for this November's state election.
The major political parties are paying serious attention to Melbourne's outer western suburbs, an area that for generations was considered safe Labor territory.
After a tilt at Treasurer Tim Pallas's Werribee seat in 2018, where he won nearly one in five votes as an independent, Dr Garra is once again putting his hand up for parliament, this time in the new seat of Point Cook, where he lives.
"Even if I don't win and just make it marginal and get more services out here. I think we've been neglected for so long in the western suburbs,'' Dr Garra told the ABC.
The GP works in Werribee and has been encouraged by many to again run in the seat, but a redistribution has seen his home area moved into the new seat of Point Cook.
"I've always been really strong on you have to live in your electorate,'' Dr Garra said, a pointed attack at some Labor politicians who choose not to live in their seats.
There is a growing unease among Labor strategists about the fate of its seats in the west.
Campaigners from both major parties as well as researchers say there is a shift in mood among the outer west — a similar phenomenon is occurring in the south-east of Melbourne, which was reflected in a drop in primary vote at the federal election.
"There's a lot of anti-government sentiment, but not a lot of pro-opposition. So, I think people just want to change and want to a voice that will represent them and speak for them,'' Dr Garra said.
For the government, Melton is the most vulnerable to a loss. It is a "target" seat for the party, the highest priority for the campaign.
Melton is currently held by former ambulance union secretary Steve McGhie but he suffered a 6.9 per cent swing at the last election, despite Labor enjoying a 4.8 per cent state-wide swing in the so-called Danslide.
In 2018, Labor's primary dropped more than 15 per cent, the Liberals' fell more than 12 per cent.
ABC psephologist Antony Green has Melton on a margin of 5 per cent for the government, taking into account redistribution.
Four years ago, six independents in Melton shared in 35.6 per cent of the primary vote and Ian Birchall won the most with 10.5 per cent on the back of a campaign for Melton to get a hospital.
Dr Birchall said he doesn't need to change much of his campaign material for his second tilt this year.
"We're just feeling neglected. I'm angry that nothing has changed in the last four years,'' said Dr Birchall, a scientist at the Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health.
While both sides of politics have committed money to build a Melton hospital, Dr Birchall, who lives in the area, is frustrated by the size of what the government is proposing and the fact it won't be open until 2029.
"The sandbelt seats get all the pork barrelling; we pay the same taxes and get nothing," he said.
"Melton is bulging, there's people everywhere."
Mr Pallas rejected accusations the government had neglected the western suburbs, highlighting billions of dollars in road and rail projects, new schools and investment in new hospitals.
"The only time the Liberals pay attention to Melbourne's western suburbs is when they're cutting funding, closing schools and hospitals and going to war with workers,'' Mr Pallas said.
"It's only a Labor government that will deliver for our western suburbs — making record investments in the hospitals, schools, road and rail Victorians deserve."
The government has spent $3.1 billion on health projects in the west in recent years as well as $737 million for new and upgraded schools.
Growing outer west 'volatile'
In 2018, Dr Garra won 19.8 per cent of the primary vote in Werribee, which was two per cent more than the Liberal candidate and an indication of the mountain the Liberal party must climb.
"We need more health services. More jobs locally. Over 60 per cent of people leave the suburb for work every day. Plus, more schools and more public transport, and better roads,'' he said.
"We're still a decade behind everywhere else."
Political research and consulting group Redbridge has found frustration with government in the outer western seats of Melton, Werribee and Point Cook, but it is not translating into support for the Coalition.
Redbridge director Kosmos Samaras, a former Labor party assistant state secretary, said the overwhelming feeling from voters is a feeling of neglect over a long period.
And the pandemic has exacerbated anger with government.
"They're lacking services,'' Mr Samaras said.
"They've had to move out to Melton because they can't afford to live anywhere else in Melbourne and you combine them both and you are dealing with a pretty volatile situation."
Party insiders have told the ABC that they have picked up similar sentiment.
Opposition offers infrastructure sweeteners
The west was disproportionately hit hard by COVID-19 and there is lingering anger with government, in particular Premier Daniel Andrews, over lockdowns.
Some Liberals are privately more positive about their prospects in the west, where the party has struggled for years due to a lack of local engagement and branch infrastructure to effectively campaign.
The Coalition is taking the outer west seriously.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has pledged $900 million to build a new 275-bed Royal Children's Hospital Werribee Campus, as well as money for a local soccer stadium project.
In Werribee, the Liberal Party gave special dispensation to recruit local councillor Mia Shaw to be the party's candidate, even though she was not a party member.
The party has previously tried to recruit Dr Garra.
"Because it's been such a strong Labor hold ... other parties haven't wanted to come in here or haven't been able to break that. But I think slowly over the last few years, we're seeing that change,'' Cr Shaw said.
After mulling a tilt as an independent, Cr Shaw said Mr Guy's commitments to local infrastructure convinced her to sign up.
In Point Cook, long-time Labor staffer and convenor of the Premier's Socialist Left faction, Mat Hilakari, is the ALP candidate.
After winning preselection, he moved from Seaford, near Frankston, into the electorate.
Many in the ALP are critical of the last round of preselections — done without local branch member votes due to a branch stacking scandal — because people without local connections were parachuted into seats.
Dumped Labor MP and former minister Marlene Kairouz used her valedictory speech in parliament last week to warn her party about the dangers of ignoring local communities.
"My message to all sections of the Labor Party is: listen to those communities, do not take them for granted and do not leave them behind, because they will leave you behind,'' she said.
While state-wide polling shows Daniel Andrews should easily be returned at the election, party strategists and MPs are less bullish. Many predict big swings in some parts of Victoria, with the outer suburbs of most concern for Labor.
The government needs to lose 11 seats to fall into minority — Dr Garra is keeping his cards close to his chest and won't say who he will support in the event of victory and a hung parliament.
"It's a complicated question. A lot would depend on who has the most seats and what they would offer to the area,'' Dr Garra said.
