Switzerland, the U.K. and Norway will experience the largest relative surge in cooling needs if the increase in global mean temperature passes 1.5 degree C and rises to 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels, according to a modelling study published in Nature Sustainability. The findings also suggest that countries in sub-Saharan Africa will have the greatest increase in cooling requirements.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise in the global mean temperature to 1.5 degree C. Rising temperatures are already driving cooling demand, and it has been estimated that by 2050 the energy required by cooling could be the equivalent of the combined electricity capacity of the U.S., the European Union and Japan in 2016, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Based on a global atmospheric General Circulation Model and historical climate data for 2006-2016, the researchers have estimated the annual changes in cooling degree days (CDDs) if the 1.5 degree C limit is overshot and warming increases to 2 degree C. The cooling degree days compare the mean outdoor temperature of a region to a standard baseline temperature (in this case 18 degree C), to determine temperature exposure and cooling requirements.
