For Mikel Arteta, there is no comparing Arsenal’s two defeats by Manchester City in the back half of last season, which effectively decided the title.
After the 3-1 home loss in February, Arteta felt his side had matched the champions every step of the way, despite being undone by second-half goals from Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland, and he came away more convinced than ever that they could win the League.
It was a different story in the 4-1 reverse at the Etihad in April, the fatal blow to Arsenal’s championship dream, with Arteta admitting that his players were second best to City in every department and “nowhere near” their best.
In reality, if Arsenal are to end a run of 15 League games without a win over City on Sunday, they will have to be significantly better than in both of their past meetings. City were far more dominant at Eastlands, but they had Arsenal’s number in the second half in London, moving through the gears and forcing the hosts out of shape and into a succession of individual errors.
The question is whether the Gunners are now better-equipped tactically and psychologically to finally get one over their rivals.
In last season’s game in Manchester, in particular, Arsenal were overpowered and outclassed in central areas but they have since spent £170million to revamp their midfield with the additions of Declan Rice — beating City to the signature of the West Ham captain — and Kai Havertz.
David Raya has also come in, somewhat controversially replacing Aaron Ramsdale, to improve Arsenal’s build-up from the back and get them closer to the levels which City and their goalkeeper Ederson have set.
Rice and Havertz were signed to make Arsenal more physical and dynamic but Arteta’s side are still adjusting to the changes, with the encouraging 4-0 win over Bournemouth last weekend followed up by a flat loss to Lens in the Champions League on Tuesday. Plainly, Rice would improve every team in the world but Havertz has looked like a square peg since making the switch from Chelsea and is not guaranteed to make the XI against City, with Fabio Vieria competing for another start as Arteta’s third midfielder.
If Arsenal can assert themselves on the champions in the middle of the park, however, it will demonstrate why Arteta was so eager to transform his midfield and their task should be made easier by the absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri.
De Bruyne terrorised Arsenal in both games last season, opening the scoring at the Emirates before two outstanding goals at the Etihad — but he remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Rodri will serve the second game of a three-match ban and City never look so vulnerable as when the Spaniard is missing, further evidenced by last weekend’s shock 2-1 defeat by Wolves, which suggested they are fallible.
In the duo’s absence, Arsenal might never have a better chance, at least in the Pep Guardiola era, to beat City in the League for the first time since 2015, although the hosts may be missing a key player of their own in Bukayo Saka.
The winger is understood to be nursing a tight hamstring and a bruised thigh after being forced off for the third game running in Lens.
Arteta will do everything possible to start Saka, particularly with the international break coming up, and the 22-year-old naturally wants to play, but there is increasingly a need to balance his welfare against his importance to the team.
If the England international is not fit to start, Arteta will face difficult questions over the decision to play him in north-east France — although, conversely, if Saka does continue his record-break run of League appearances, the Spaniard will probably be accused of taking another risk with his talisman’s fitness anyway.
Ultimately, Saka is more important to Arteta than any single player to Guardiola — De Bruyne or Rodri included — which goes some way to illustrating the continuing difference in depth between the two squads.
Arteta needs no reminding of the importance of last season’s two meetings — City finished five points ahead of Arsenal after taking six points from them — but this weekend’s match-up is as much about psychology as numbers on the board.
Such was City’s dominance in April, it was easy to wonder if Arsenal were beaten before they stepped on the pitch and there is a sense that this group of players would benefit from beat City in a high-stakes match — the Community Shield does not count — to overcome the mental block.
To win the League, Arsenal do not need to beat City, although it would give Arteta’s side enormous belief to know that they can.
