A Premier League title theory suggests Arsenal could have an advantage over their Premier League title rivals during the run-in when club football resumes after the final international break of the season. Manchester City have dropped points in half the matches they've played after a midweek game.
Of City's eight games they've dropped points in this season, six have come after a match during the week. This could either be as a result of tired legs or Pep Guardiola's squad not being as deep as in previous campaigns, not helped by the sales of Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko to Arsenal last summer.
With City still competing in three competitions, after progressing to the FA Cup semi-finals and Champions League quarter-finals, they will have to contend with several more midweek outings during the hectic two-month run-in. Their task won't have been made any easier by news of Erling Haaland's groin injury which saw him withdraw from Norway's squad this week.
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Depending on the severity of the issue, the lethal striker could miss a number of games upon the resumption of club football next month. Here are the games City have played after a midweek clash so far this season:
- Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City (after City 6-0 Nottingham Forest)
- Wolves 0-3 Manchester City (after City 6-0 Borussia Dortmund)
- Manchester City 4-0 Southampton (after City 5-0 Copenhagen)
- Liverpool 1-0 Manchester City (after Copenhagen 0-0 City)
- Leicester City 0-1 Manchester City (after Dortmund 0-0 City)
- Manchester City 2-1 Fulham (after City 3-1 Sevilla)
- Manchester City 1-2 Brentford (after City 2-0 Chelsea)
- Manchester City 1-1 Everton (after Leeds United 1-3 City)
- Manchester United 2-1 Manchester City (after Southampton 2-0 City)
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City (after Arsenal 1-3 City)
- Bournemouth 1-4 Manchester City (after RB Leipzig 1-1 City)
- Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United (after Bristol City 0-3 City)
City are guaranteed to play three more Premier League games within 3-4 days of a midweek match. This will rise to five if Guardiola can guide his outfit to a two-legged victory against Bayern Munich in the Champions League semi-finals.
Because they have progressed to the FA Cup semi-finals, their trip to Brighton is scheduled to be rearranged to a midweek slot which is yet to be stipulated. These are the remaining Premier League games City will have to play after tough midweek action:
- Manchester City vs Leicester City (after City vs Bayern Munich)
- Fulham vs Manchester City (after City vs Arsenal)
- Everton vs Manchester City (after potential Champions League semi-final vs Real Madrid/Chelsea)
- Manchester City vs Chelsea (after potential Champions League semi-final vs Real Madrid/Chelsea)
- TBC (after Brighton vs City)
By contrast, Arsenal's sole focus is the Premier League, after they were knocked out of the Europa League by Sporting last Thursday. The Gunners, who have an eight point cushion over their nearest rivals having played one game more, have just one midweek match remaining.
This comes at the end of April when they face a possible title decider at the Etihad Stadium in the last complete set of Premier League midweek fixtures of the season. Arsenal face a tough test in the match immediately following this clash, when they host Chelsea on April 29.
Aside from that week, Arteta has the luxury of having a full week's preparation for their other eight league matches.
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